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8. USD Rally Extends Currency Market News 18, December 2009 The Dollar index which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies hit a 3 month high as the USD extended its recent rally. However the motivation for the rally shifted. Previously the USD gained on the back of recent positive economic data in the form of retail sales and payroll numbers. Yesterday it was more a case of good old fashioned risk aversion creating a demand for the safe-haven USD. A more upbeat statement from the Fed may also have helped as they slowly turn more hawkish, however it was a clear case of risk off that drove the US dollar higher yesterday. The problem is that a weaker USD will have contributed to better economic data and now the USD is gaining we could see future economic feedback stuttering. Looking at current levels, EUR/USD has now fallen back to 1.4380 and hit a low of 1.4304 a level not seen since September. The euro is still struggling on structural weaknesses within certain nations in the 16 nation zone. GBP/USD also fell into 1.60 territory before creeping back to 1.62. A fall in BRC retail sales was not good news for the UK economy and this number on release caught the market off guard with sterling dropping sharply. Today we have not got much in the way of economic data, however as the holiday season winds closer we could see volatility as positions are closed ahead of the festive period. report by Phil McHugh Report by Phil McHugh Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. You can view MarketClub's latest trading video here, with my compliments.
9. Are You Trading Over Christmas? We Are In The Silly Season Remember! 17, Decenber, 2009 This time of year, from 15th Deember, is oficcially sSilly Season for traders. The markets are thin and apt to be flukey so many traders, including me, opt out at Christmas. This year is no different and if anything, there are more compelling reasons to take this position. Over the past few months we have been looking at the trading videos from MarketClub. Today I have three videos from Adam Hewison These videos take a look at some of the trades we have been following, namely Dollar index, crude and oil. In this first video you will see the position of the Dollar index back as far as March and what the various signals we were following during the year. It also shows a divergence with the MACD where the trend has been showing up while the market went down. This is something Adam explains very wellin this short video about the Dollar index. He also gives an opinion on what position to take right now which I share...namely do nothing. The next video deals with crude oil. The market has weakened to some slightly concerning levels so it is timely to look at this market. In the video you will see the special "Trade Triangles" that MarketClub use as monthly, weekly and daily indicators. In this case they are in conflict because as the trend is high so the market is weakening.So what are you to do about it? In this case I consider the Silly Season and once again choose to opt out. Take a look at what Adam has to say on the subject. Finally if you are a gold fan like me, This video is for you.. We have seen the market fall a little from recent highs and right now that retracement is close to the 61% as shown on the Fibonacci tool. However the MACD is just starting to turn indicating an upward trend is coming. At the same time, the daily chart triangles are showing a postive sign while the weekly "Trade Triangles" point down. All this conflict is better explained by watching Adam's video. It indicates to me that we should maintain our positions and just watch the gold market until Silly Season is over. Good Trading, Tom
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
10. Euro on the Backfoot Currency Market News on the Euro, Greece and Austria 15, December 2009 The euro has again moved lower against the majors and in particular against the USD moving down to 1.4523 overnight and overall down 500 points from recent highs. The cause of the downturn has been attributed to the recent jitters in Greece and more recently in Austria. The Greek prime minister commented yesterday that Greece does not have much time and must take tough decisions within the next three months; decisions that have been left for decades. In a very direct address he stated that "we must change or sink" and vowed that he will tax the bonuses of Greek bankers by 90%; move over Alistair Darling! Reports on the web also suggested that a second bank in Austria may require a government rescue; this follows yesterdays' nationalization of an Austrian bank yesterday. The euro has suddenly in the space of week turned from an alternative buy from the USD to a prospective risk. Going forward there are other economies in the eurozone that could create pressure and further banking issues such as the Balkan nations, Spain, Italy & Ireland. On the back of the euro weakness the pound has managed to claw back over 1.11 in more a case of euro weakness over pound strength. In addition looking at the euro from a technical perspective it has looked overvalued and recently we hit a double top at 1.5140 against the USD.The next major support level is at 1.4480. Data from the UK economy showed that CPI came in a tad higher than expected at 1.9%.This is in line with an expected increase in inflation and is not significant to concern the Bank of England. Later today we have more economic feedback from the US with PPI and Industrial Production. If we see more good news then the data will back up recent positives in non farm payrolls and retail sales and lead to more USD strength.
Report by Phil McHugh
Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
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11. Forex Markets Become Less and Less Liquid Currency Market News 14, December 2009 As we get into December, so forex markets become less and less liquid. This, combined with the lack of any significant data on Friday, left the technical traders very much in charge. EUR/USD obeyed the charts almost to the Nth degree with the closing support at 1.4610 holding even though we had seen slightly lower in late afternoon trading. Having broken the early November low of 1.4626 we are left with some fairly definite support and resistance levels to look at between now and the end of the year. There has been a considerable amount of trade around the 1.4700 level and this looks to be the initial Euro resistance level with last weeks high of 1.4780 the next resistance level. In a nutshell, if we dont back up through 1.4800 in the next few days then the downside beckons. Recent moves suggest that short term trading will focus on being short of Euro with a target of 1.4450/1.4500 on the cards. This directional trade has been given impetus by what appears to be an improving relative economic performance from the US, which is in turn giving the Dollar a modicum of support. This has been helped by comparatively weaker factors coming from the other major centres including problems in Greece, weaker European industrial production data in October, budget and election woes in the UK, and budget stress, weak economic data and more QE in Japan. It has become harder to argue that the USD should be the weakest of the major global currencies and hence the preferred funding currency for yield trades. Again, a lack of transactional flow is giving the strategists more success. This morning we have seen news from the Middle East that had been largely anticipated . That is, that the Government of Dubai has authorised the use of $4.1 billion to settle the maturing Sukuk that was causing the market some concerns. A Sukuk is an Islamic financial certificate, similar in function to a Western market bond, only one that complies with the strict criteria of Islamic religious law, Sharia. A source close to the Dubai Government added that other government-related entities will be considered for funding assistance on a case-by-case basis. So where is Dubai going to get these funds from? Well, their beneficial neighbour, Abu Dhabi has pledged immediate financial support for both Dubai and Dubai World, with no conditions attached, to the tune of $ 10 billion; that will help, pushing Dubais total assistance fund now up to $25 billion. We are thin on meaningful data today with just industrial production and 3rd quarter employment numbers from the EU and Canadian industrial capacity utilisation the highlights, although the release of the BoEs quarterly bulletin might produce a couple of interesting pointers. Sterling has held up reasonably well despite the quality weekend press being full of articles concerning the UK debt mountain and the problems that might evolve over its funding.
Currency Market Updates by Tom Nadir
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12. Sterling Falls in Prebudget Nerves Currency Market News 8, December 2009 That could be one reason for the fall in sterling since close of play yesterday. The Pre-budget report will set out government plans for tackling the UK deficit and also define growth forecasts. A big factor will be how the government plans to reduce the deficit which is a major issue for the UK economy and the next government. Expect lots of political sabre rattling as Darling attempts to set out a fiscal election strategy. The UK government has promised to cut the deficit in half within 4 years and the market will want to see a viable plan for this to give comfort to sterling. Other items could include a change in the growth forecasts, cuts in spending and increased taxes, possibly on bankers bonuses or even banking institutions. Darling says his plan will maintain credibility with investors, while protecting people most vulnerable to the recession - it needs to. The pound has drifted lower against the USD, the EUR and the YEN; the fall in pound commenceed in Asian trading and was instigated by a market order to sell GBP and but EUR The Dubai crisis reared its head again as Dubai stocks fell and worries mounted on Dubai World's debt restructuring once again; this may have contributed to the dip in the pound. In addition Moody's described the UK as weaker than top rated peers including Germany and France. So probably a number of factors leading to a lower pound this morning. One good snippet of news was that UK Halifax November house prices jumped 1.4% against the expectation of a 0.5% rise, however not enough to support the pound. Looking at the USD, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke brushed aside the recent positive non-farm payroll report by underlining that the job market was "weak" and more sustained evidence is needed to assure of a self sustaining recovery. Fridays US retail sales data will be the next window to assess the health of the US economy.
Report by Phil McHugh
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir
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13. Currency Market News on the USD Fightbac Currency Market News on the USD Fightback 7, December 2009 The surprise US non farms payrolls that came out on Friday took centre stage. A reading of -125k was expected but the actual data came out at -11k. This shook the markets, giving the USD a boost as investors scrambled out of most majors including JPY, GBP and EUR positions. JPY weakened by 2.4 cents, GBP fell 2.5 cents on the day and EUR fell by 2.7 cents. The far better than expected payrolls reading showed that US employers cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began. This positive reading surprised the market and is a strong recovery sign. However, a large portion of the better than expected reading is attributed to the seasonal temporary increases in staff over the holiday period. It is not surprising that there is such a strong influx in temporary staff numbers as many companies have aggressively cut their permanent staff in order to cut costs. The headline payrolls data overshadowed the unemployment rate which came out at 10.0%, whilst this an improvement on last months reading (of 10.2%) it is still an ongoing concern to US recovery (the last time unemployment was this high was back in 1983). In the UK the Pre Budget Report is due out on Wednesday which will give some insight into where the Chancellor is expecting GDP to track over the coming months and what the anticipated borrowing levels will be. A downgrade to the GDP forecasts (from 1-1.5% for 2010) would obviously signal a slower recovery for the UK and may, therefore, dent confidence in GBP. We may also see him hike the anticipated borrowing to around the £190bn level. There are still concerns that the global economy is on the brink of another downturn. The IMF Managing Director, Dominique Strauss-Khan said that about half of bank losses from the financial crisis are yet to be reported. The IMF have said that banks which have already taken $1.72 trillion in losses and writedowns (as measured by Bloomberg since the start of 2007), may have an additional $1.5 trillion of so called toxic debt on their books. Some US equity traders are also concerned that the rallies seen since the low in March will not be extended. Supporting this notion is the fact that US S&P 500 equity options have gone up in price. The options that offer protection against declines in stocks over the next year cost 40 per cent more than one month contracts, the largest premium since 1999.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir
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14. ECB Take Baby Steps To Cut Liquidity Currency Market News 3, December 2009 Yesterday was a day of mixed messages and movements in the FX markets. The USD lost ground against AUD and NZD but gained against the pound and the euro in later trading. The main event on yesterday's calendar was the ECB interest rate decision. As expected the interest rates were left on hold but it was the eagerly awaited press conference that was the main event. The ECB took baby steps to scale back on their emergency measures as Trichet announced that they will terminate the one year tender in December and that the final tender will be offered at an average policy rate. They also announced that the 6 month tender will end on March 31. Thus they are signaling a cut in the stimulus program. In essence this should be hawkish and euro positive but in typical Trichet style he fanned the flames by confirming that inflation will remain low and pledging to provide abundant liquidity for the first 3 months of 2010. Therefore interest rates likely to remain low for some time. EUR/USD initially jumped towards the 1.5150 level before waning to 1.5060 later in trading. Tapering and removal of exit strategies will be a key theme over the coming months as central banks try to wean off the life support of unconventional monetary measures. The market is looking for signals on who will be first and thus who will raise rates first- expect mixed messages from central banks as they keep their cards close to their chests. Data from the US yesterday was mixed. Worryingly the US PMI services confirmed that the service sector had slipped back into contraction, ADP employment softened the blow coming in above expectations. The ADP report was taken as an appetizer for todays non-farm payroll data. This could be a mistake although a decent number is predicted we have had waves of recent warnings on the payroll/employment sector. A poor number today could raise a few eyebrows and cause a few jitters. Either way the market is expected to be volatile this afternoon on the back of the payroll and unemployment data.
Report by Phil McHugh
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir
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15. Market Confidence Resumes Currency Market News 3, December 2009 It was back to business as usual in the markets as the search for yield gathered momentum. The big loser was the Japanese Yen surpassing the USD as the currency of choice to sell in the thirst for yield. The recent stimulus from Japan and recent verbal attempts to weaken the currency are finally starting to undermine the Yen. USD/JPY is heading back towards 88.00 and GBP/JPYGBP/JPY is back up at 146. The recovery trade is glaringly apparent again with equities gaining. The Nikkei up 3.3%; Gold hitting new highs and Oil gaining. EUR/USD is still pushing north although momentum has slowed due to the market awaiting the ECB rate decision at 12:45 today. As usual it will be the press conference following the decision that will be closely eyed. What the market will be scrutinizing is the potential for a shift in the terms that the ECB offers funding to banks on a long term basis. Previously a spread of 1% was utilized. What they could look to do is raise the tender or remove it completely and leave it floating. Both moves would be considered hawkish and thus euro bullish. In addition to this they could upgrade their GDP outlook which again would be a positive and bullish signal. The main focus will turn to EUR/USD and the next key level is 1.5160 and beyond this 1.5290 to really enforce the bull run. GBP/EUR has softened a little this morning, possibly due to UK PMI services data which came in weaker than expected at 56.60 down from 56.90 in October. Yesterday the Federal Reserve beige book was released reporting on economic conditions in 12 Fed districts. The tone was slightly upbeat with moderate improvements in most areas, however credit remains tight and employment weak. The key data for the US will be tomorrows payroll and unemployment numbers.
Report by Phil McHugh
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir
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16. USD Stumles Again Currency Market News on Weak USD 2, December 2009 The move back into USD did not last too long as was mainly attributed to the fear factor surrounding Dubai. As the markets started to feel more comfortable the USD fell pretty much across the board. EUR/USD again pushed through 1.5050 and then through the 1.51 level, GBP/USD also gained back to the 1.66 level. Apparently unnamed sources from the ECB are saying that ECB officials are not concerned about the recent euro strength against the USD - not sure I believe that. This week we have the ECB and the improvement in economic data recently has caused speculation that the ECB will turn more Hawkish in their approach to monetary policy. The problem with this is that it would lead to further euro strength if the ECB move before the US Fed and this will certainly be an issue on the agenda for the ECB going into Thursdays interest rate meeting. The forex markets will be heavily influenced by the monetary policy strategy of major economies. The higher yielding currencies in particularly the AUD have performed well lately as a move out of fear into yield is becoming more apparent. The same philosophy has led to the rally in Gold and commodities to new highs. At the moment the Bank of England are the most dovish out of the major central banks contributing to the weakness in the pound. All major economies have introduced unconventional measures to help their ailing economies; the first to look at exit strategies and interest rate rises will equal a stronger currency. Today is another quiet day on the data side with the main interest likely to be the release of the Fed's Beige Book this evening. Tomorrow we have the ECB rate decision and on Friday we have payroll data from the US.
Report by Phil McHugh
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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17. Dubai Grabs The Headlines Again Currency Market News 1, December 2009 The Dubai furore continues and undoubtedly will do so for some time; the market seems to have contained the news with a rally in Asian stocks and US stocks steady yesterday. What we do know is that if Dubai World defaults then lenders will have to take the hit, however the market feels this is unlikely. As UK banks will be the hardest hit in this eventuality, then sterling has remained soft as the USD gives up its gains. Let us see if the pound can start to play catch up today. It is certainly out of the blocks well. There were other things happening in the world although they all took a bit of a back seat. Most important was the result of and action that followed the Monetary Policy meeting in Japan this morning. Interest rates were, as expected, left unanimously at 0.1%. But the market was surprised by the announcement of a Yen 10 trillion injection of funds into the economy to attempt to stave off the ongoing deflation in the country. The cash would be introduced to lenders and be backed by JGBs, Corporate Bonds and Commercial Paper. the YEN dipped initially, recovered a tad and then eased again; nothing substantial but a move in the right direction as far as the UK Government is concerned. The Reserve Bank of Australia, as predicted, raised their official rate by 25 basis points to 3 3/4% completing a hat-trick of interest rate rises; a first for the central bank. The Aussie remained very quiet with both the decision and the comments that followed widely anticipated. The Nationwide Building Society in the UK this morning released data that indicated house prices had risen by 0.5% in November and a slightly more sustainable 2.7% on the year. No real reaction from the FX markets although this data will help consolidate the pound. Looking ahead this week we have the European Central Bank rate decision with the Bank of England the following week. Recently the feedback in economic data from the eurozone has been good with consumer sentiment improving, along with better feedback on indicators for retail, services and manufacturing sectors. There is now a strong possibility that the European central Bank may raise their GDP outlook and look towards an exit strategy from their unconventional monetary policy measures. However there is also real concern growing over the health of the economy of Greece, with rumours abounding that it has sought the help of China to relieve its latest trench of government debt. In addition German Chancellor Angela Merkel is rushing through a fresh package of measures to shore up ailing banks and prevent a second wave of the debt crisis suffocating large parts of manufacturing industry. The potential for future problems within credit for european economies and banks would certainly undermine the euro. Recently the euro has gained across the markets and it has been heaviliy bought into as an alternative reserve currency over the USD by Asian central banks and Russia. Any fears surrounding the health of the eurozone and the potential for another credit crunch, say in Germany, would lead to a sharp sell off in the euro.
Compiled by Tom Nadir.
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18. Have You Met the Wellness to Wealth Team Yet? Income Elite is a massive membership site, packed full of step by step make money online plans, reports, audio and video and it's updated every month. There's also the Community Hub where members can meet, exchange info and ideas, ask questions, meet the core team and join in with what we call Elite Stealth Projects. These ESP's as they are known, give members a chance to work on group projects, with the core team and other members, making their chances of success and monetary rewards far greater. Meet the Income Elite Team TODAY. http://tinyurl.com/IncomeElite  19. Dubai Fears Rattle Markets Dubai Fears Rattle Markets Currency Market News 27, November 2009 Dubai fears rattle markets with currencies largely unaffected in London trading although the Dollar edged stronger as market liquidity thinned out. The big movers were the CDS and equity markets with the cost of insuring against sovereign default leaping and equities dropping sharply, led by the banks perceived to have most risk out to the UAE region. Overnight analysis of the situation threw up only less certainty and none of the data produced has actually diminished the possible risk to global stability. This morning, there has accordingly been a rush into risk averse investments ie the Dollar, with gold, oil and equities all dropping sharply as market participants both bank recent gains and hedge against further bad news. The ongoing Dubai restructuring story, combined with recent restructurings in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, raises questions over the quality of sovereign support for quasi-sovereign names. The risk is that in the aftermath of this, rating agencies take a less generous interpretation of sovereign support and we see a wave of quasi-sovereign downgrades. Investors will then demand a higher risk premium for holding assets of those quasi-sovereigns without explicit sovereign guarantees. Hence, developments in Dubai have broader market resonance and the CDS market has continued to react negatively with spreads widening dramatically, especially those of the less well thought of sovereign names. At least the Japanese authorities can breathe a sigh of relief (for now anyway) as the return of Dollar appetite has bounced USD/YEN from its 14-year low by 2 1/2 %. It remains far too strong for the Ministry of Finance's liking though and if you were a betting man, you would put money on the Bank of Japan using this change in direction to 'encourage the move' by the odd bit of foreign exchange dabbling. The Japanese werent the only country whose Central Bank was pleased to see a return to Dollar holding. Both Australia and (especially) New Zealand have been most vocal over the last few months with regards to what they perceive to be the unwarranted strength of their currencies. The Kiwi$ weakened to a near 6-month low and the Aussie also soften. A return of confidence in the global recovery will quickly create the mood for a return to riskier investments and on that basis, a weaker Dollar once more. It probably wont happen today and more than likely, not for a couple of weeks but the markets tend to have short memories and once liquidity builds up again the current levels will be seen to have good value. Long term risk takers tend to shun illiquid markets leaving the arena to the intra-day traders hence the danger today is that stop losses and technical signals will be targeted creating overly volatile swings. There is of course the chance, with most of the US again on holiday that market players get bored and make an early break for the door. Sterling has suffered a bit in the above melee on the back of UK banks assumed to having the largest exposure to the UAE region and a source yesterday suggesting that Alistair Darling will downgrade his 2009 UK growth forecasts at next months pre-budget statement. An overnight assessment of the UK banks' 'loan' exposure to the UAE comes up with figures that show that the UK has over 50% of the European total and considerably more than any other nations total. This, remember, is only a loans total and does not include any capital markets exposure. In US$ billions: UK 49.5, France 11.3, Germany 10.2 and the US 9.9 - no wonder Sterling reacted worse.
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20. USD Starts to Slide Again Currency Market Updates the State of the USD 23, November 2009 After a good performance last week by the USD the market was looking to see if the fight back could be sustained. From looking at the markets this morning then the answer is no. EUR/USD is again pushing towards 1.50 and GBP/USD has recovered from 1.64 levels back to 1.66. Influence on the USD has arisen from Federal reserve Governor Bullard who recently made interesting comments on Fed policy. He said that it will be difficult for the Fed to hike interest rates if the jobless data continues to worsen or look fragile and also tellingly that the Fed should keep alive its asset purchasing programmes beyond the first quarter of 2010 to give policy makers flexibility. This is somewhat akin to the strategy of the Bank of England and the comments dampen the hopes of rate hikes and exit strategies from unconventional monetary policy measures and thus weakening the USD. Although the comments are not yet official strategy, they still lend an insight to potential Fed policy. We will learn more in the Feds minutes on Tuesday. An interesting article in Bloomberg notes that the most accurate dollar forecasters predict a further slide in the USD and to continue even if the US look to hike interest rates. Standard Chartered Plc, Aletti Gestielle SGR, HSBC Holdings Plc and Scotia Capital Inc. say the dollar will depreciate as much as 7.1 percent versus the euro. Sterling having retreated at the end of last week still looks a little nervous; although it has made gains against the USD, this is more in line with broad USD weakness. There is not too much in the form of data this week. Wednesday's GDP report is the big focus for sterling and the latest release will hopefully upwardly revise the third quarter figures. Data today from the Eurozone has confirmed that November manufacturing PMI has come in at 51.0, up from 50.7 in October and slightly lower than forecast. This has tempered the euro's advance but has not weakened GBP/EUR. You can expect thin trading and volatility in the week ahead; today we have a holiday in Japan and on Thursday we have Thanksgiving.
Report by Phil McHugh
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21. USD on the Back Foot Currency Market Updates 16, November 2009 Disappointing data on Friday coupled with little headway in the APEC conference has served to undermine the USD as we start the week. EUR/USD is approaching the 1.50 level; GBP/USD made a short breach of 1.67 and USD/JPY remains pegged under 90. On Friday data showed a higher deficit with a surge in imports and the Michigan University consumer sentiment came in weaker than expected. What has weakened the US dollar is continued talk of the negative impact of a weak USD. Liu Mingkang, the Chairman of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission said that the combination of a weak US Dollar and ultra low interest rates had encouraged huge volumes of carry trades that were having a "massive impact on global asset prices". A weaker USD on the one hand will help the US recovery and prolonged low interest rates will have the same effect. The issue here is that the knock on effects of this scenario hit global economies that rely on a stable and strong USD. The fallout from the latest Quarterly Inflation report was digested in the papers over the weekend; The Banks assessment for growth is now twice the latest consensus of their panel of independent forecasters and their predictions for inflation and interest rate levels over the next couple of years have been revised sharply higher. There is still a cautious tone especially when relating to further stimulus in Quantitative Easing. It will be interesting to see whether Mervyn King and David Miles again voted for a greater increase in the level of QE than their other 7 colleagues when the minutes from the November MPC meeting are released this week. This morning, Japan also reported strong 3rd Quarter GDP data but again, this remarkable recovery can be attributed to short term stimulus measures and is not expected to be sustained going into 2010. The UK Rightmove house price data, released earlier today, came in on the soft side with prices showing a month on month fall of 1.6%. 
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
Compiled by Tom Nadir.
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22. Markets Digest Bank of England Inflation Report While Aussies March On Currency Market Update - Markets Digest Bank of England Inflation Report While Aussies March On 12, November 2009 Yesterday sterling weakened after the release of the Quarterly Inflation report and the accompanying speech by Mervyn King. The feedback from King was actually not too bad when taken into context over the last six months; inflation was earmarked to rise and growth forecasts were upped. The reason why the pound weakened was related to the Bank keeping an "open mind" on further Quantitative Easing and also noting that the weaker pound is a key driver for the UK economy. It seems the Bank is still treading tentatively and is taking no chances. We have little data for the rest of the week for sterling; sterling has held firm after falling yesterday holding above 1.10 against the euro and 1.65 on the USD The market will want to see continued improvements in economic data following small improvements in manufacturing, jobless claims and housing data. This morning EUR/USD has failed to hold on to the key 1.50 level falling to 1.4950; 1.50 is a stubborn barrier that the euro cannot seem to push through with strong support for the USD at this level. This move has allowed sterling to creep higher against the euro towards 1.11 but I would expect range trading on EUR/USD and a possible re-test of 1.50. In other news the Australian economy is still driving forward with the unemployment rate holding at 5.8% but with 24,500 new jobs created raising the chances of another 25 basis point rate rise. This puts the Australian economy well ahead of the curve and naturally the AUD has strengthened on the improved sentiment and the recent rise in interest rates. Eurozone data just released confirmed a fifth consecutive increase in Industrial production by 0.3%; later European Central Bank president Trichet will speak later in Frankfurt. Speaking in Singapore U.S Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has again reaffirmed the importance of a strong dollar and also a stable USD. In addition he also noted that Asia and in particular China will play a major role in leading global recovery. The importance of a strong and stable dollar are key to global economies; Singapore and Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan among others need to regularly buy USD to keep their local currencies from strengthening too much against the USD. Report by Phil McHugh Contact Currencies Direct for Corporate or Private Transactions. Open an account today and save money.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view a new trading video here, with my compliments.
BlogCatalog - Finance
23. Slippery Start for Sterling Currency Market Updates - Slippery Start for Sterling 10, November 2009 in the Far East just as the currency looked as though it might consolidate at its recently hard won higher levels ahead of the release of the latest Quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England and the US public holiday - both tomorrow. Then at 5:18 this morning, Fitch said that the UK was most at risk of losing its AAA sovereign rating amongst the major economies, with Germany being the least likely. Cable dropped from 1.6755 to 1.6610 without touching the sides and GBP/EUR witnessed a corresponding fall from 1.1183 to 1.1090 before a recovery of sorts. At 6.14am the ratings agency attempted to repair the earlier damage to Sterling by reiterating its outlook for the UK as stable because the Government (which ever party this relates to) is expected to articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation plan over the next 12-months. Sterling bounced a tad, up to 1.6660 and 1.1120 which are about the levels we are at now. This price action, unfortunately, negated some earlier positive news from the UK showing that the RICS house price balance came in better than the pre-release survey and that, on the same vein, Britains are expecting things to improve with a poll in The Times indicating that people foresee good times just around the corner . Today, with a lack of market moving data scheduled for the UK, the early drop in Sterling will likely weigh for most of the day. A strong German ZEW could add to pressure on the pound later this morning. I suppose the BIG question that comes from this little cameo is whether the UK Government will be able to deliver the goods in terms of the assumed spending cuts. A maintaining of the tighter fiscal policy will also support the opinion that UK interest rates will stay lower for a longer period than had been originally assumed and that these facts favour the view that Sterling's cyclical weakness is set to continue for some time yet. Other than that, equity markets had another good day, Wall St up by a strong 2.03% and S&P up 2.22% leading to an expectation for a good showing in Europe. It is possible that ahead of the Veteran's Day holiday in the US tomorrow, we see a little profit taking but the trend for the remainder of the year looks set to carry on ever onwards and upwards. Again, this will add further downwards pressure on the the US dollar and lead to a test of the support level against the euro at 1.5060 and the more important Fibonacci level of 1.5168 which is the 76.4% retracement of the July/November 2008 extremes. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 24. Bad US Figures Lead to Good Start for Sterling! Currency Market Updates 9, November 2009 The pound is off to a flyer in particular against the USD hitting 1.68 and pushing to 1.12 against the EUR. Some attention in the markets is focusing on the Kraft/Cadbury developments which is sterling supportive in relation to M & A flows. EUR/USD is also testing the 1.50 level again this morning; Euro zone investor confidence has come in much better than expected with the highest reading since June 2008. GBP/EUR struggling to gain further due to the EUR strength against the USD Over the weekend the G20 agreed a new framework aimed at re-balancing the global economy and will present detailed plans by the end of Jan. In the meantime the US dollar is weak and this is leading to a stronger euro and Yen; the IMF have also noted that the USD is still overvalued raising concerns that the USD could weaken further. Targets will be for the euros to hold above 1.50 and GBP/USD to push towards 1.70. On Friday the non-farm payrolls for the US slipped by a worse than expected 190k and the unemployment level hit 10.2%. This was not good news for the US economy in the short term, although the market may still look forward to a slowly improving employment sector. It was not enough to turn the market into risk aversion and USD strength. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 25. Hold On To Your Hats Today! Currency Market Updates The Bank of England Decision on QE 5, November 2009 Today at midday the MPC will announce the decision on interest rates and Quantitative Easing. Interest rates are almost certain to remain on hold at 0.5% with the decision on QE to take the spotlight. As today has drawn closer the expectation has escalated that the Bank of England will expand, the question is if they do by how much? The argument is that if they are going to expand then why not do 50 billion pounds rather than 25 billion pounds. The reasons for expanding are very apparent. The recent dire GDP number, rising unemployment, dire public finances and banks that are still not passing on this increased liquidity. On the other hand most major economies are now looking at exit strategies from unconventional measures and there is a danger that over cooking QE could stoke inflation and lead to an inflationary problem and sharp interest rate increases to combat this. At the same time there are whispers that the Q3 GDP will be revised upwards and that Q4 GDP will show an exit from recession and a slow recovery for the UK. So the arguments and the significance of today's decision are evident. The BoE are walking a fine tightrope and they do not want to topple either way and obviously stay on track in controlling inflation. The implications for the currency markets today are high. Volatility will be severe with the decision at midday followed by the European Central Bank decision at 12:45. If QE is expanded then this should lead to a sterling sell off, if they do not then we could see a sterling rally. The ECB are not likely to throw in any surprises today holding rates at 1% and giving little away in relation to monetary policy measures. Last night the Federal Reserve maintained their rates and offered up no surprises with the statement to maintain "exceptionally low levels for an extended period". They were slightly more optimistic than previously but nothing close to hawkish. The reaction therefore was to sell USD and an initial surge pushed GBP/USD towards 1.66 and EUR/USD towards 1.49 before fading in later trading. One eye would have been on todays central bank decision suppressing the appetite of the dollar sellers. Hold on to your hats today! Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 26. Fireworks Due at the Bank of England Currency Market Updates 4, November 2009 Tomorrow the MPC will meet for their monthly meeting but this time around the implications are huge. The decision on whether to pump billions more into the economy or hold fire has caused widespread debate with increasingly confusing economic signals adding to the issue. The problem for the MPC is that it does not want to not do enough especially with the prospect of unemployment pushing past the 3 million mark. Data released overnight showed that UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence remained unchanged from September. The pound has surprisingly rallied against the USD and EUR with a good day for equities helping to boost the risk on trade. The USD and JPY fell yesterday and the pound was a major beneficiary of this weakness. Supporting sterling this morning is economic data that UK PMI for services was up to 56.9 from 55.3 in September. Another good number from the UK. Could sterling be building up for another fall? We will see tomorrow! Tonight we have the interest rate decision from the US FOMC and the rates look almost certain to be kept on hold. The market will gauge the Feds tone regarding existing and possible future policy. In the past the Fed have continued to use the statement "for an extended period" in describing how long rates will remain at very low levels. If this phrase is removed or toned down then the USD should strengthen due to the potential of interest rate increases being more imminent. Also from the US we have ISM services today which will be a key number in monitoring the economic recovery. In other news poor retail sales data from Australia undermined the AUD slightly as the rest of the commodity currencies gained. Retail Sales came in at minus 0.2% a surprise number especially as Australia have recently upgraded their outlook. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 27. The Pound Charges Higher ... Currency Market Updates as The Pound Charges Higher ... 30, October 2009 The beleaguered pound was in demand yesterday reaching a six week high verses the euro and holding its own against the stronger USD due to a combination of short covering and negative Euro sentiment on the back of the recent slide in global equity markets. Stronger than expected UK mortgage approval data also added to reasons to buy sterling with mortgage approvals numbering 56,215 in September, up from 52,970 in August and better than the increase of 54,000 forecast. There was however a cloud on the horizon in the shape of the M4 money supply data although the headline M4 grew by 0.8% in September taking the annual rate of growth to 11.6% the BOE's preferred measure which excludes some non-bank financial intermediaries fell 0.9% on the month and declined at an annualized rate of 1.7%. So while there continues to be encouraging signs of recovery coming from the housing market the money supply figures will surely support the case for more QE next week. Later in the day US Q3 GDP recorded a rise of 3.5% in line with expectations and the biggest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2007. The last time GDP was in positive territory was during the second quarter of 2008. The figures show that the recovery was broad based with consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of economic activity increased by a healthy 3.2% compared to a fall of 0.9% in the previous three months. Residential investment which was the catalyst for the downturn jumped 23% contributing to GDP for the first time since 2005. But don't get too carried away it must be noted that the key drivers for both consumer spending and residential investment has been massive US government stimulus packages totaling some US$1.7trn, which have already or will come to an end eventually i.e. Cash for Clunkers. Business inventories declined at a slower pace this quarter falling by US$131bn compared to US$160bn last quarter. In a separate report weekly jobless claims fell by a modest 1,000 last week to 530,000 encouraging but with the weekly average running well above 500k it does not bode well for the Non Farm Payrolls data due next week. Markets took heart from all this positive US data and as risk aversion abated, equity and commodity prices responded positively oh and the dollar got sold. As mentioned yesterday all eyes and hears will now turn towards the round of central bank policy meetings taking place next week for direction. Other key data will be the forward looking Chicago PMI and University of Michigan confidence index. The Chicago PMI is expected to rise back to 50 this month after falling to 46 in September while the University of Michigan confidence index is forecast to remain little changed form the 69.4 reading in September. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 28. MarketClub Reviews - The S&P 500 Index and Spot Gold Keep a Close Eye on the S&P 500 Index and Gold 28 October, 2009 A few days ago I suggested that the time was right to be cautious with the S&P 500. This short video strenghtens that view and I suggest you take a few minutes to watch it. In this first trading video about the S&P index you will see particularly the MACD cross over indicating that the S&P has topped out for the time being. I have another video for you too today. This one looks at the gold market. Spot gold may look a little shaky right now but we have seen this before. The underlying energy field in the market suggests that gold is still reaching for highs os 1200 or even up to 1300.
Watch this trading video closely and by using the tools we have available and reading the signals you can draw your own conclusions.
As always, no sign up or registration is necessary to watch the S&P 500 video or the one revealing the gold market indicators..
Successful trading to you
Tom.
PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
29. How EUR/USD Fails to Hold 1.50 Currency Market Updates How EUR/USD Fails to Hold 1.50 27, October 2009 The big news in the markets yesterday was the rally of the USD in particular against the euro but in addition against the yen and higher yielding currencies. Is this the start of a sustained rally after prolonged USD weakness? Probably not yet but it is a relief rally and again highlights the fragility and volatility in the global markets. At US open yesterday equities rallied and the USD weakened further;it looked business as usual. However the markets suddenly turned and equities and commodities dropped sharply and strength came back into the USD led by the drop in stocks. It is a little uncertain what caused the sell off. There were reports of heavy selling of EUR/USD by a Swiss private bank and the fact that EUR/USD looked tired at the 1.50 level probably led to jitters that a top had been reached. GBP/USD came out unscathed and was largely supported to 1.64 by the dividend related buying by the UK oil company which was completed in the early afternoon. We did then see a dip back to 1.63, however in overnight trading we experienced another rally towards 1.64 with rumours noting that a US bank acting on behalf of an Asian sovereign supporting the overnight gains. The pound may have also been supported by feedback from Goldman Sachs stating that the pound is the most undervalued since 1999 based on the purchasing power parity theory. The pound also gained against the euro pushing back towards 1.10 helped in part through euro weakness against the USD. Expect further ups and downs with sterling as dovish comments from Bank of England members are stacking towards further QE expansion in November which would undermine the pound again. Not a great deal of data for the market to get its teeth into; we have UK CBI Distributive trades which is expected to improve from September. For the USD we have Consumer confidence which may be a weak number given the recent drop in the IBD confidence report. A weak number should help the USD to gain further after yesterdays rally. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 30. Pound Falls on Weak GDP Data Currency Market Updates - Pound Falls on Weak GDP Data 26, October 2009 In the wake of Fridays horrendous GDP data, there is now growing speculation that the Bank of England will extend their Quantitive Easing programme at the next meeting on November 5. This was reiterated by former MPC member Mr Blanchflower who on Bloomberg TV noted that the Bank of England will have to do another 50 billion pounds and they could extend by as much as £250 billion in all from the current 175 billion pounds. Naturally this is not good news for the pound and it is understandably under pressure this morning in the markets. The next major level on GBP/USD is 1.6240 and on GBP/EUR 1.0750. Today is the last installment of the oil company purchase of GBP from USD. The company has needed to turn USD into sterling in order to pay shareholder dividends and this could offer GBP/USD some support for today. This morning we have seen data from Germany come in weaker than expected. The November consumer sentiment indicator has come in down at 4.0 against forecasts of 4.5. The decline is symptomatic of growing concerns within the German labour market. EUR/USD is relatively untouched on the news and is holding above 1.50 for now and Thursdays German unemployment data will now be closely scrutinized. If unemployment begins to rise again then the current strength of the euro in particular against the USD will raise concern. This is maybe why there is little follow through in the rally above 1.50. On the other side of the coin an article in the Financial news Which is affiliated with Chinas central bank, calls for China to increase its reserve holdings of euros and yen and USD holdings should be reduced. In other news Australian Producer Prices came in weaker than expected at 0.1% against the forecast of 0.3%- this news suggests that tomorrows CPI data may be also weaker and this will alleviate the need for the RBA to raise interest rates quickly to curb inflation- this could soften the AUD strength witnessed recently. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 31. The Pound Falls off the Cliff... Currency Market Updates - The Pound Falls off the Cliff... 23, October 2009 It was the big one that the market had been waiting for, the UK GDP. This was touted to show that the UK economy had exited the recession but it was woefully disappointing. UK Q-3 GDP has come in demonstrably weaker than expected, -0.4% quarter on quarter, -5.2% year on year compared to median forecasts of +0.2%, -4.6% y/y. Following on from yesterdays weaker retail sales data the pound has once again fallen of a cliff this morning. So far we have lost over 1.5% against the USD and the EUR. Unfortunately the good cheer surrounding sterling earlier in the week following a less dovish stance from the Bank of England has now been smashed and talk of parity against the euro is likely to be the market chatter once again. Over to the Eurozone and we have seen some decent data in the form of PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) for services and manufacturing. The data came in better than expected and is an important indicator of business conditions in the Eurozone. Meanwhile the German IFO came in pretty much as expected. Looking at the currencies this morning we can see that EUR/USD is still holding firm above 1.50 following the positive economic data. Sterling is the big loser as you would expect and is still falling against the major currencies. It has breached 1.10 against the euro and is testing 1.64 against the USD; the next support is 1.6340. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 32. UK Retail Sales Disappoints Currency Market Updates - UK Retail Sales Disappoints 22, October 2009 Yesterday the spotlight was firmly on the Bank of England minutes in the morning and onto the Fed beige book in the afternoon. The BoE minutes cheered sterling into a rally against the USD over 1.66 and to 1.11 against the euro. The tone from the BoE although not conclusive was more hawkish and importantly there was no mention of expanding the Quantitative Easing programme. This facet was the impetus behind sterling gaining across the markets. In addition there is ongoing interest in GBP/USD by an oil company who are touted to be buying as much as £500 million each day supporting the rally to 1.66. Yesterday afternoon we finally saw a breach of 1.50 for EUR/USD; however it did not last long as the Fed beige book release brought a sense of reality back into the markets. The disappointing feedback from the Fed beige book which offers a survey of economic conditions led to a dip in the Dow and some strength coming back into the USD in later trading. The feedback suggests that the economic recovery in the US could be prolonged and shaky. Today UK retail sales data came in lower than expected with month on month sales coming in flat against the expectation of a 0.5% rise. This has taken the shine away from sterling after an impressive rally over the last few trading days. Currently the pound although dipping on the news is still above 1.10 on the euro and 1.65 against the USD and 150 against the Japanese Yen. Tomorrows GDP will now be the focus of attention for sterling. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 33. Sterling Gets a Boost Currency Market Updates 20, October 2009 Last night Mervyn King made a speech in Edinburgh and did not mention an expansion of Quantitative Easing. This morning the released minutes from the MPC showed a vote of 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5% and QE at 175 billion pounds. Therefore recent developments were not enough to justify immediate change to rates or QE and evidence suggests that QEs effect on asset prices "had been substantial" and of the type planned. Although the MPC indicated that in the November meeting QE will be looked at, this feedback has given the market confidence that no expansion will now be undertaken and hence sterling has rallied. Feedback from the retail sector and the GDP data on Friday will give further clues to the health of the UK economy and good numbers could push GBP/USD and GBP/EUR higher still. The USD is still under pressure as Chinese Industrial Production was rumored to come in much better than expected; the theme is a recovering China is the pre-requisite to a recovering global economy. Key levels now to breach are 1.66 on GBP/USD and still 1.50 on EUR/USD We have feedback from the US economy later in the form of the Fed beige book. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 34. MarketClub Reviews - Which Way the S&P 500 ? Time to Check Your Perception of the S&P 500 Index 20 October, 2009 Are you like me and wondering if the S&P 500 is going to continue rising? I feel that caution should be applied right now and I have ensured that my stops are tightly controlled. I suggest you do the same if you are feeling the same way. The perception (always dangerous) is that the market will continue to rise and in today's trading video you will see what I am talikng about. Perception is a very powerful element in the market, possibly stronger than both the fundamental and technical elements. So whats going to happen with the S&P 500 index? Will it continue rising for the rest of the year or are we close to a turning point? Take just a few minutes out to review the charts with Adam. As always, no sign up or registration is necessary to watch the trading video. Successful trading to you Tom. PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC. 
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
BlogCatalog - Finance
35. EUR/USD Targeting 1.50 Currency market Updates the EUR/USD 20, October 2009 The prevailing market sentiment is for a weaker USD and EUR/USD is driving towards a key barrier option at 1.50 and the pound is piggy backing on USD weakness to push up to the 1.64 levels. The pound is targeting the support level of 1.6450 and a breach of this should open the door to test 1.66. USD weakness is continuing to ensue on the improved confidence in equities and the appetite for risk catalysed by the Dow Jones breaching 10,000 and further boosted by a decent run of US corporate earnings data most notably through Apple. This week we have data snaps from the UK and the Eurozone which will be closely watched. For the UK the Bank of England will be looking closely at economic data; better than expected UK retail sales data on Thursday and GDP on Friday may comfort the MPC not to expand further on QE. We have Mervyn King speaking tonight and the Bank of England minutes tomorrow which may shed more light on the Bank of Englands current thoughts. The thoughts on the expansion of QE are what will potentially move sterling higher or lower in the short term. For the Eurozone this week will be a good indicator on whether the pace of recovery is receding. The most important economic releases to watch this week will be German producer prices, Eurozone current account numbers, German IFO report and PMI figures from the entire region. If we see disappointing numbers then this could signify that the recovery is losing traction as was largely stimulus led. This could then take the shine from the euro. Finally the Australian dollar remains buoyant and the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia have indicated that inflation control is their priority which opens the door for further imminent rate hikes and further AUD strength. report by Phil McHugh Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 36. Pound Starts The Week Badly Again Currency Market Updates 19, October 2009 We ended last week looking more positive for the beleaguered pound which gained against both the euro and the USD from a poor start to the week. We are getting mixed messages on Quantitative Easing and the possibility of expanding the programme further; the pound gained following a report in the FT that the Bank of England may hold back from extending QE as it felt the economy " was in good shape" However this morning we are again on the back foot as Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics, said that Britain faces a dangerous rise in the levels of public debt; even inclusive of proposed tax increases depressing! The article reported in the Telegraph went on to suggest that the government is running out of weapons to fight the crisis and the fall in the pound which should boost exports has been fairly benign and he added that "The pound never stops where you want it to," indicating a possible run on the pound. However depressing the slide in sterling looks at least it is reflective of the health of the economy. The same cannot be said for the strength of the euro which has gained to some extent as an alternative reserve currency to the USD even in the light of weak economies throught the eurozone.p> Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, said this week that "the euro was not created to be a global reserve currency." Highlighting the concern on this factor. The problem for the eurozone is that an over inflated euro could hurt the economies in the long term, where as the pound should gain with growth; time will tell. This week for the UK we have Q3 GDP on Friday and retail sales on Wednesday to focus our attentions on. Report by Phil McHugh
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 37. Currencies Market Sees Aussie Dollar Shine... Currency Market Updates 16, October 2009 Overnight comments from the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens will only serve to underpin the currency. The Dollar now appears firmly on course for a stronger period after Mr Stevens agreed that the Australian economy's strength could drive it "way up" to US$ 1.10 to 1 AUS$ and further suggested that the Central Bank would not be "too timid" in further increasing the official interest rate. Money markets are now firmly betting that interest rates will be at 3.75% before Christmas with a strong feeling that we could now see a 50bp hike following their November meeting. Other than the numbers from Citibank yesterday, the US Corporate earnings released yesterday were overall positive but the divergence between the releases from Goldmans and Citibank highlight that the decision is still pending with regards to the US recovery. This if anything has held the Dollar back more than the shift into riskier asset classes. The US Central Bank's own Mr Fisher added to the air of unease when he said that he didn't think that the US Treasury's asset purchase programme had really done much good and that he was glad it was now complete. Fisher isn't a voter at the November 4th meeting, so if there's discussion of whether to extend the scheme he won't be part of the final say. Still, it's interesting to see members not convinced of its benefits. It looks increasingly likely the Fed will pause here to see how the Treasury market performs without its support. Euro/Dollar again brushed up to the 1.4965 level overnight, the second failed attempt to break up through this strong Euro resistance. The Euro's decline can be attributed to Trichet's comments yesterday, playing down the currency as a global reserve alternative and repeating the importance of the US Government's strong Dollar policy. Sterling hit 1.6400 overnight before settling back to this morning's level of 1.6290 and against the Euro, Sterling maintained yesterday's positive run pushing up through 1.0900 up to 1.0965 before settling back at 1.0935 this morning. The Swiss National Bank Chairman, Jean-Pierre Roth was quoted as saying that the SNB will raise interest rates as soon "as we have the feeling the economic recovery is well established". Switzerland is emerging from the financial crisis "in better shape than the remaining European countries" he was reported as saying. They have to be careful here because the last thing that the authorities want is a strengthening Swiss Franc and an emerging economy plus higher rates is likely to put the currency in much demand. Report curtesy of Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London. The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Compiled by Tom Nadir. 38. Currencies Market Takes a Shine to Sterling Currency Market Updates - Sterling Shines 15, October 2009 Sterling for once is the star of the show. A large GBP/EUR sell order from a UK clearer kicked things off this morning, followed by a report in the FT that the BoE may hold back from extending its QE program as it felt the economy was in good shape. It now waits to be seen if this is just a rally in a downward trend for Sterling or potentially the start of a concerted rally. The dollar again fell following the release of the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The minutes had a distinctly dovish tone to them, they indicated that just one member had advocated a reduction in the buying of financial assets, with most of the committee favoring an increase in Fed purchases in order to speed the economic recovery. The overall tone was cemented when the discussion turned to the outlook for inflation with the suggestion being that the Central Bank is still a long way away from raising its interest rates. The dollar fell sharply to near 15 month lows against the euro, touching 1.4970 The Euro level is particularly interesting, with 1.4950-70 range having proved particularly Dollar supportive in the past (during the 4th Qtr of 2007) but upon breaking, the rate rushed up to just under 1.6000 where it remained for some time before falling back. Technical analysts are targeting 1.5700 as a near term objective. Prior to the minutes' release, equities was already having a good day with the DJIA breaking up through the 10,000 mark for the 1st time in more than a year. The spur here was the release of the JP Morgan quarterly earnings numbers which exceeded expectations and further increased the prospect of the financial system's recovery. This positive sentiment was continued from earlier data from the UK which showed a reversal in the recent employment trend. This had underpinned Sterling during the day but it wasn't until yesterday evening that the currency started to make headway across the board. In a speech this morning, RBA Governor Stevens noted that interest rates in Australia will have to move to more "normal" settings as the severe downside risks to the economy seen earlier in the year had not come to pass. That suggests a move back to 4-5% for the cash rate; with current expectations for a move to 4.00% reasonably quickly with perhaps a 50bp hike in November followed by another 25bp hike in December, or maybe three 25bp moves finishing in February (the RBA are on holiday in January, so no meeting will take place). Underlying inflation In Australia remains above the 2-3% target range and with consumer and business confidence recovering rapidly in recent months, the current monetary stance is clearly becoming inappropriate. New Zealand, not to be outdone, released their own set of economic numbers indicating that CPI was on the march in Kiwi-land as well. Qtr 3 figures for both qtr/qtr and qtr/year periods were much higher than expected which reinforces the view that NZ Dollar interest rates will follow Aussie rates on a generally higher tack. Report curtesy of Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
39. MarketClub Reviews - The Crude Market Will Crude Take Its Yearly Dive? 14 October, 2009 Traditionally the crude market takes adive this time of year. However the indications on the "Trade Triangles" are all pointing to green. That effectively indicates that there are some strong trends in place and the odds are that the market should go higher. This trading video uses the "Trade Triangles" and the Fibonnaci tool. What the latter does is show the possible and unseasonable highs that crude could reach. Professional traders are looking for crude to break the $75 mark and if it does it could go even higher. If that does work out it will not be good for the general economy of course but there will be some profitable opportunities. If you are trading in this market be sure to manage your trades with stops as there are no guarantees where this will go. As always, no sign up or registration is necessary to watch the trading video.
Successful trading to you
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
40. Free Trading e-Mail Courses from MarketClub Currency Market Updates on the Free e-Mail Trading Course My Guest Blogger today is Adam Hewison of INO and MarketClub 12, October 2009 ===================================================================== First of all Tom, I want to thank you for having me as a guest today! My name is Adam Hewison. You might want to Google Me to confirm what I am about to share with you.
There are plenty of people out there that create exclusive email courses with little or no credentials to
I was a former floor trader on the IMM, IOM, NYFE and LIFFE as well as a risk manager of a large,
In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need (1) The importance of psychology in price movement (2) How to spot mega trends (3) Understanding of technical price objectives (4) How to picture price objectives (5) How to trade with moving averages (6) How to use point and figure trading techniques (7) How to use the RSI indicator (8) How to correctly use stochastics in your trading (9) How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends (10) How to capitalize on natural market cycles. Plus, you will you will learn all about fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.
Every success, President, INO.com & Co-Creator, MarketClub ================================================ Thanks Adam. I am sure you enjoyed Adam's blog, now enjoy the free e-mail course. Just fill out the form and you can get started right away.
Good trading, Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
41. The Pound Gets Toasted Currency Market Updates - The Pound Gets Pounded 12, October 2009 Sterling again takes the lead today as the pound gets pounded, It`s very difficult to put a forward a case for buying Sterling at the moment when so much negativity continues to undermine it. One thing to bear in mind is only the UK and US have expanded their money supply by over 100 % in the past 18 months and both have interest rates at near zero. Its no surprise then that both currencies are being used to fund positions in high yielding currencies and will continue to remain under pressure in the coming months. Key levels to watch GBP/EUR 1.0685 break this and we could see parity before the end of the year. News over the weekend was a bit gloomy on the Sterling and Dollar front with continued talk of UK rates staying below 2% for some considerable time yet with the added prediction of the currency dropping below 1.4000 against the Dollar and to below parity against the Euro. The Dollar was similarly put on the backfoot by continued speculation of reserve divestment although The Times did sum up this scenario quite nicely by pointing out that talks amongst the Middle East nations on using Euro more has a target date of 2018, as the paper says, The Dollar is going to be around as the world's reserve currency for a long time'. Other than that, the press was full of asset sales and other cash raising exercises, those going ahead, planned and speculated upon. Economic news out of the UK this week in the form of unemployment data and CPI will hold the key to further moves; if it comes in better than expectations then you could see a strong oversold rally for Sterling. If it comes in below then the pound really could be in for a toasting. Report curtesy of Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
42. Currency Market Updates - Today's Key Events Currency Market Updates - Today's Key Events 9, October 2009 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: 8:30 AM ET. Aug Trade Balance, in dollars Deficit (Expected 33.6B; previous 31.96B) Exports (previous 127.59B) Exports Percent Change (previous +2.2%) Imports (previous 159.55B) Imports Percent Change (previous +4.7%).
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
43. An Alternative to Trading Gold MarketClub Reviews - An Alternative to Trading Gold This Market Mirrors Gold 8 October, 2009 You may find gold not to your liking. I like it but it is not for everyone of course. While I was pondering this my mail box shouted me and there was the answer. My friend Adam had donoe it again! Here is his alternative to the gold markwet that everyone is talking about. Basically it trades the same as gold but knock a zero off the end...much more manageble. This trading video is a quickie but worth looking at especially if gold scares you a little. As always, no sign up or registration is necessary to watch the trading video.
Enjoy this one, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
44. Market Awaits The Bank of England Currency Market Updates - Market Awaits The Bank of England 8, October 2009 The scheduled monthly get-togethers take place in London, MPC/BoE and in Venice, the ECB. There is a general consensus that following both meetings, interest rates for the respective currencies will remain at their present lowly levels. Taking the meetings in chronological order. The MPC are expected to say very little, if indeed anything at all, following the rates announcement at 12.00. They have recently only adjusted the level of QE based asset purchases at the meeting closest to the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report (next due in November) and this situation does not look likely to change. The decision to increase the level of stimulus will therefore be deferred until the next meeting even though some discussion will probably take place today. The minutes will tell us more. I would also not expect to hear anything today related to the much talked about negative interest rates on banks' reserves held by the Bank of England. All in all, a bit of a non-event which perversely might prove to be Sterling positive on a day of little data release. The ECB meeting will produce a similar outcome on rates ie no change, the difference being that the Central Bank always has a press conference following their monthly meeting and Trichet feels obliged to occupy the crease for at least a good hour. He is expected to reaffirm the growth outlook for the Eurozone, "economic activity is expected to recover at a very gradual pace" but recent data has not been sufficiently soft for any more dovish a sentiment. On the other side of the equation, and as I mentioned yesterday, the ECB do now appear to be taking a closer interest in future inflationary indicators (which are signalling a firming trend) and as such will wary of allowing upward pressures to get a hold. Status quo the obvious result. Yesterday was significant for its lack of any sort of action, other than gold which hit a record high during the day's trade. Both currencies and equities remained becalmed although the Yen extended its bullish run on chatter of Euro 18 billion of Eurozone bond redemptions taking place yesterday in conjunction with a generally positive assessment of the Far East growth recovery. Sterling remained subdued, still affected by the apparent official sanctioning of a weaker currency. All the market moving action happened after Wall Street's close with Alcoa reporting a surprise quarterly profit and the Australians releasing better than expected employment data. The employment numbers from Oz were very much stronger than had been mooted with expectations of a 10K fall flattened when a 40K rise in jobs came through. This spurred the exchange traders into pushing the USD/AUD through the 90 cents level and again focused attention on organising the parity parties'. This could have been viewed a reason for the interest rate rise earlier this week but the market is on a roll and are now betting that we will say a further 25bp rises at the next two monetary meetings. A bit over the top perhaps but definitely a possibility. The Kiwi Finance Minister quickly saw the writing on the wall and expressed his concern over the weak US Dollar, repeating that he is 'uncomfortable' with the level of the NZ Dollar and that given the local currencies strength, any recovery would be unlikely to be export led. Outside of the policy meetings we are due to get speakers only from the US with the Fed widely represented. Lacker speaking on economic education, Tarullo speaking in the wake of the financial crisis and Bernanke giving an update on the Feds balance sheet. Report curtesy of Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
45. New Trading Video - MarketClub Reviews Gold New Trading Video - MarketClub Reviews Gold Go For Gold ! 7 October, 2009 Let's talk about gold shall we? The market may have hestited the other day but hang on to your hats because we look all set to reach a new all time high by Christmas as I mentioned before. We are just on 1400 today and we may see a slip back as far as 1200 (buy) but a glance at the MACD will show the positive cross over we have been waiting for. Gold is heading for higher ground! This 2 minute video will show you exactly what I mean. This is a only a short but valuable trading video prepared by Adam Hewison of MarktClub and he has something special lined up for you so be sure to take the time to watch it. Take a look at how we can see where gold is heading right now. As always, the video is free to watch, no sign up or registration is necessary. If you enjoy it, share them with your trading friends and thank me later ;-)
Happy trading guys, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
46. Thanks Mandelson...Sterling Put Under Pressure... Currency Market Updates - Sterling Remains Under Pressure... 7, October 2009 Sterling never really recovered from the Double Whammy yesterday of Mandelson extolling the virtues to exporting companies of a weaker currency and the much worse than expected UK industrial & Manufacturing production figures. When you are already on the ropes, it is far more likely that you are going to get a further pummelling. Compare that to the stock market. Indices seem to set new yearly highs on a regular basis and nobody wants to be left on the side-lines and miss the recovery trade. The similarities between the Dollar and Sterling are getting more obvious. Despite brief flurries of profit taking and more comments from the Japanese Finance Minister, the Dollar remained vulnerable during the day and in overnight trade. Chinese markets were closed so volumes in the Far East were light. The Yen retained its positive bias throughout. Mr Fujii did his best. In a Wall Street interview, he defended FX interventions in the case of outrageously reckless movements, adding that current Yen strength was consistent with market activity. He also further leant his support to the Dollar remaining the key reserve currency. Sterling took its cue from the weaker than expected production data. Despite a strong Halifax house price number, a flat GDP figure from the NIESR and rumours of a huge semi-official EUR/Sterling sell order in the market, the currency continued in its recent weak trend. The Nationwide consumer confidence number for September also added some support in Asia this morning (the index was reported at 71 in September, the highest since April 2008, against an upwardly revised August figure of 65) but the demand then fell away and Europe joined the fray with Sterling a tad weaker than the previous London close. Going into the BoE and ECB policy meetings, the Pound is likely to remain weak with little surprise expected from either rate decision. There is a chance however that M. Trichet highlights a pick up in inflationary expectations in the Eurozone and that following the rate hike in Australia yesterday, attention might turn towards who is next in the G20 rate rise stakes? It certainly won't be the UK. Yesterday saw a good supply of sovereign debt issues with the US, the UK and Ireland all issuing in a cross section of maturities and all drawing solid demand. The 2013 gilt issue was covered 2 times, the 3-year treasuries auction was covered 2.76 times and Ireland's 15-year syndicated bond issue for Euro 7 billion attracted Euro 16 billion in bids. Global bond yields obviously have further to fall yet. Report curtesy of Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
47. Australia Hikes Interest Rates Currency Market Updates - Australia Hikes Interest Rates 6, October 2009 As had been anticipated for some time now Australia became the 1st of the OECD countries to raise their official interest rates since the global introduction of the far reaching stimulus measures and historically low interest rates that followed the financial meltdown in 2008. Australia can not claim to be the very first nation to move, Israel took that honour but is the first economy of significance to have taken steps to reverse the easy monetary conditions. In raising their rates from the 49-year low 'emergency' rate of 3% to 3 1/4%, Glenn Stevens, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said that economic conditions in the country are now stronger than had been expected whilst measures of confidence have recovered. The RBA made it clear in the statement that this would be the first of a series of interest rate increases and the likelihood is that official rates will be nearer 4% than 3% by year end. The move is obviously a very strong indicator that the Australian Treasury feel that economic recovery in China and the Far East is a done deal and the chances of a double dip recession, remote. Back to normal yesterday with a very strong ISM number from the US creating a rush into equities and a drop in the dollar's value. The ISM's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90% of the economy, rose to 50.9 (50.0 expected) from 48.4 in August the first expansion in a year. The FTSE surged to close above 5000 and the DOW and S&P 500 both rose sharply. The weakness in the Dollar has been maintained overnight and cable has broken back up through 1.6000 this morning, although sterling itself is weaker against the euro, for which the multitude of tests at 1.4550 and then 1.4500 now seem a long distant memory. The sentiment towards the Dollar has been helped by an article in this morning's Independent newspaper talking of the currency's demise. It claims that secret meetings have already been held between finance ministers and central bank governors in the BRIC nations plus Japan to work on a scheme which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in US Dollars. p> Discussions between the above countries, oil producing nations in the Gulf and, apparently, France centre on dealings in crude being priced against a basket of currencies which will include the Yuan, the Yen, the Euro, Gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Both the new Japanese Finance Minister, Fujii and the Saudi Central Bank Head have been quick to deny the report with the latter stating that the content was absolutely incorrect'. This has had the effect of putting the brakes on the Dollar's decline and with little or no significant data scheduled today, I would not expect to see the major crosses move very far from here. That said, there are still items of interest for the markets to take on board. The UK DMO are auctioning £5 billion of 2013 gilts this morning (this following the furore over the FSA's plan to require UK banks to hold an extra 110 billion pounds in government bonds in a bid to prevent a repeat of the banking crisis) and the US Treasury are scheduled to sell 39 billion dollars of 3-year notes this evening. With treasuries' yields looking to head down to beneath 3% expect the auction to attract plenty of demand. The other headline maker this morning is Latvia, and more specifically the fragile state of its economy and the knock on effect that a 'failure' would have in Europe, and more specifically, Sweden. The Swedish banks have by far the largest exposure to the Latvian economy and a fall out would have dire consequences for their already weakened balance sheets. The Krona looks vulnerable to adverse news. Comments from Mr Fujii following the G7 meeting at the weekend indicate that the weakness of the Dollar had been discussed by the participants but that he had made it clear that a weak yen policy was not a desirable option for the Japanese. The outlook for the Dollar is still uncertain however given affirmation from the NY Fed's Dudley that low rates will persist for an extended period. Last comment on currencies; UK Industry Secretary, Mandelson is quoted as saying that a competitive exchange rate would boost exports in a desirable and timely way. Interesting use of tense here and similar in context to the comment made by Mervyn King that put the skids under the Pound a couple of weeks ago. Report from Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
48. Take Care of Your Dollars and Look For Gold MarketClub Reviews The Dollar Index, Gold and the S&P 500 Take Care of Your Dollars 5 October, 2009 The stimulus package has not really had the desired effect. The jobless totals are mounting in the US and figures of 10 or 11% unemployment are being predicted and sadly I think that is a reality we have to face. With loss of jobs and the hardship this inflicts comes the lack of spending and that is where we will see a fall in the S&P into next year. The dollar continues to be under pressure and with it the dollar index is set to suffer for a good time yet. Is there any good news here? Yes. Gold has been rising and although stalled at the moment we are still looking for that commodity to continue its gains and value during this last quarter. This new video will show you what I mean. We are not out of the woods yet despite what the politians would have you believe. The economic downturn will see the dollar reach new lows, allow gold to find new highs while the equity markets will back down at least into the New Year. I know its not a pretty picture but let's be real here. The US is not in good shape just now and you will need to arm yourself with the facts to ride the storm. Take a look at gold, the dollar index and the S&P 500 and make your own mind up. As always, these videos are free to watch, no sign up or registration is necessary. I am sure they will find them both helpful and educational. If you enjoy these videos, share them with your friends and thank me later ;-)
Happy trading guys, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
49. UK PMI Above Expectations Currency Market Updates - UK PMI Above Expectations 5, October 2009 UK PMI released early today came in above expectations however Sterling failed to respond and we are still trading friday`s ranges. Key levels still hold at $ 1.60 & 1.10 Friday's Lisbon Treaty vote in Ireland went through with a resounding 67.1% of the Irish electorate voting Yes' following a 58% voter turnout. This turnout was five percentage points up on the first Lisbon referendum in June 2008. Pressure from EU leaders now falls on Czech president Vaclav Klaus to sign the treaty; although the Czech parliament has ratified the Treaty, a presidential signature is still required to formally complete the process. With all this going on over the past few days, there has been surprisingly little impact on the Euro as it remains well-supported above the key levels of 1.4550 against the USD and 0.9100 against sterling Back across the Channel, Tory leader David Cameron has said he will hold a referendum if the Lisbon Treaty has not been ratified in all member states by the time he is prime minister. The G7 finance ministers' meeting in Turkey on Saturday went without a hitch, with the subject of foreign currency volatility on the agenda as predicted. The G7 audibly welcomed China's pledge for greater FX flexibility moving forward. Japan's new Finance Minister Fujii was again in the press commenting (post conference) currency devaluation was not welcomed, and that Japan would take FX market action (i.e. intervention) if moves were excessive/one-sided. Mr Fujii also emphasised the Japanese economy was not ready for exiting financial stimulus strategies just yet. This statement echoes similar comments from fellow G7 members recently. World Bank and IMF meetings in Istanbul yesterday and today respectively followed the G7 discussions. Elsewhere overnight saw increased speculation down under of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its next meeting tomorrow. Well-respected editors of the Australia Financial Review and the Sydney Morning Herald newspapers both wrote that a move to 3.25% was now likely at Tuesday's meeting. The RBA's last move was a 0.25% cut in May this year. Report from Currencies Direct
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
50. MarketClub Reviews Divergence MarketClub Reviews Divergence Do you understand how divergence works? 3 October, 2009 Ready for the weekend? I have two new videos for you both on the subject of divergence. The first deals with trading divergences in the S&P 500 and the second with a divergence we see developingthe mighty Apple. Take a few minutes to discover some of the possible negative divergences that are building for this market. Divergences do not mean that Apple is going to collapse, as the major trend in the stock remains firmly in the positive camp. However, it could indicate that Apple is at a highpoint for the time being. The first video, dealing with the S&P 500, is here and the Apple video here. As always, these videos are free to watch, no sign up or registration is necessary. I am sure they will find them both helpful and educational. If you enjoy these videos, share them with your friends. Have a good weekend.
Happy trading guys, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
51. Market awaits NF Currency Market Updates - Market awaits NFP 2, October 2009 All the US economic recovery euphoria disappears in a couple of days of poor employment data. If you remember, the week started with one US institution talking of a much better than market consensus, non-farm payrolls figure, being released today. Since then, we have had a worse than expected ADP employment number and higher than expected jobless claims alongside economic data and surveys reported weaker than had been expected. And this from the largest economy in the world (for the present anyway). This leaves scribblers' re-writing their estimates for this afternoon's figure with the emphasis, who can come up with the least positive figure. The consensus is still for a drop of about 150-170K, which would not be too bad given it would signal the second consecutive month in which the job loss number had narrowed by about 60K, but I have seen a report this morning that the figure could be as high as -250K. We have seen a big risk aversion shift with equities off again, bond and gilt yields down and the Dollar stronger. Oil is lower and gold has taken a breather from its seemingly inexorable rise towards $1200. The break down through 1.4550 versus the euro is proving a tough nut to crack however, and despite several attempts at getting beyond this level, the invisible elastic thread is so far successful in reeling the rate back. Given that we are not due significant data until the aforementioned US non-farm payrolls, I would expect this pattern to be reproduced throughout the morning session. That said, there is plenty to keep an eye on (or rather keep an ear open for). The Ecofin grouping of all EU Finance Ministers are meeting for a 2nd day today in Gothenburg. Yesterday they discussed stimulus exit strategies, the recent G20 meeting in Pittsburgh and probably most relevant, the upcoming G7 meeting with a focus on the strength of the Euro. Also today, Ireland are voting for the 2nd time on the Lisbon Treaty. A 'YES' result is vital to the ongoing development of the EU as an entity. Latest polls indicate a swing towards a YES result (55% for, 27% against and 18% don't know) but markets will keep in the back of their minds that a rejection of the EU constitutional treaty by France and The Netherlands in 2005 caused a slump in the Euro's value. The official result is due sometime on Saturday We then have preparations for this weekend's G7 meeting in Istanbul, with all the posturing and comment that usually accompanies this sort of get together. The difference this time is that with G7 as a group is losing its importance in global terms, the participants might be tempted to break the mould and make a comment on currency values. It's a long shot but the Europeans are making sure they have their story established just in case. Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, started the ball rolling, prior to his leaving the US for Istanbul last night, by affirming the US strong Dollar policy and promoting its value as the global reserve currency. From the UK, the Nationwide Building Society reported that house prices rose 0.9% month on month, to give a flat result for the year, in September. That follows August's +1.4% mom and -2.7% yoy. This is the first time that the year-on-year hasn't been negative since March 2008. Nationwide added that although the upturn fitted well with other macro-economic indicators, they were actually very cautious on the near term outlook as the gain had been achieved on very low turnover. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
52. Key Events to Watch For... Currency Market Updates - Key Events to Watch For...
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: 8:30 AM ET. Aug Personal Income Personal Income +0.1% 0% Personal Spending +1.1% +0.2% PCE Price Index Monthly 0% PCE Price Index Yearly -0.8% PCE Core Price Index Monthly +0.1% +0.1% PCE Core Price Index Yearly +1.4% 8:30 AM ET. Sept 26 Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims 535K 530K
Weekly Jobless Claims Net
Cont Jobless Claims (prior
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg 10:00 AM ET. Sept 19 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer DJ-BTMU Business Barometer 0
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52
10:00 AM ET. Aug Pending Home Sales
MoM Pct Change (Current
YoY Pct Change (Current 10:00 AM ET. Sept ISM Mfg Index Manufacturing PMI 54 52.9 Prices Index 65 Employment Index 46.4 Inventories 34.4 New Orders Index 64.9 Production Index 61.9 10:00 AM ET. Aug Construction Spending New Construction 0% -0.2% 10:30 AM ET. Sept 25 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet Total Working Gas in Storage 3585 3525
Total Working Gas in Storage 4:30 PM ET. Sept 30 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars Primary Credit Borrowings 28.51B
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Primary Dealer Borrowings 0B
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Discount Window Borrowings 109.98B
Discount Window Borrowings W/E 4:30 PM ET. Sept 30 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars Foreign US Debt Holdings 2.86T US Foreign Agency Holdings 770.34B Foreign Treasury Holdings 2.09T 4:30 PM ET. Sept 21 Money Supply N/A Sep Auto Sales
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Update cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
53. Brief Rally For Sterling... Currency Market Updates - Brief Rally For Sterling... 29, September 2009 Sterling this morning has enjoyed a brief rally, on the back of better than expected economic numbers. Key levels to watch $ 1.60 & 1.10.if we can break and hold above these levels then Sterling could continue to rally. Currency markets are trying to come to terms with just what the Yen policy of the new Japanese Government is and what the repercussions are for other global currencies. The series of conflicting messages coming from the new Finance Minister, Mr Fujii, is keeping attention on the Governments likely tolerance for a stronger currency but on balance, it appears that intervention is unlikely. The Finance Ministry would clearly prefer not to get involved but feel that in the current economic phase, a state of 'laissez-faire' might not be viewed too favourably at home. Hence we get more vocal than actual support for the Dollar. The Finance Minister, Gyohten, commented that Japan should fully support the USD as the global reserve currency. Outlook for the Yen is for further strength over the next few weeks, targeting the 85.00 level but that the Dollar will begin to have recovered prior to year end with estimates of the cross being in the low 90s by then. On a quiet day for data yesterday, the press and hence the forex market got itself into a bit of a tiz about the possible outcome of a couple of Bank of England meetings this week. Firstly, they interpreted The Governor, Mervyn King's meeting in Sweden with the Riksbank as a sure sign that the BoE was about to implement a negative interest rate structure on commercial banks' deposits at the Central Bank. Secondly, rumours abounded over the agenda and outcome of the meeting called by the BoE today with economists and market participants purportedly related to the current QE stimulus measures. Whatever the outcome of the respective get-togethers, traders will remain nervous of being long of Sterling in the near term. The pound might be underpinned should Euro/Dollar test the strong Euro support point of 1.4550 at which point we find out whether it is stop losses or real money investors who hold sway at that level. Also overnight we had statements related to monetary policy from both the Canadian and Australian Central Bankers. The Bank of Canada's Mark Carney, when questioned about intervention, reiterated that he will do whatever is necessary to ensure inflation targets are met and also that he did not foresee Can$ interest rates moving until well into the summer of 2010. The Reserve Bank of Australia's chief economist talked about the housing boom and the inevitability that interest rates could not remain at current low levels for any length of time. Perception is still that there will be no change in Aussie rates at the October meeting but that we could see a 25bp hike at both the next 2 meetings. Aussie and Kiwi currencies both firmed up. Elsewhere, the South Korean central bank voted unanimously to hold rates at current levels whilst later this morning, the Romanian Central Bank is expected to cut the official ROM lending rates by 50bp to 8% and this afternoon the Israeli Central Bank meet. Remember, Israel were the first of any of the monetary authorities to increase rates (at their last meeting) so expect no change this time. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
54. G20 Meeting Ended As Expected Currency Market Updates - G20 Meeting Ended As Expected 28, September 2009 The G20 meeting concluded with little unexpected emerging. The draft statement promised to maintain policy stimulus for as long as it was necessary and to ensure that policies were in place to rebalance the world's economies. Other than that, details were sketchy and if hadn't been for comments from the new Japanese Finance Minister, Mr Fujii followed by a good amount of back-tracking, the meeting might very well have come and gone without causing a ripple in global markets. As it was, Mr Fujii initially stated that he viewed previous intervention as inappropriate and that recent moves were not abnormal which was taken as affirming the new Finance Minister's non-intervention stance and saw the Yen firm up, reaching 88.25 against a broadly firmer dollar. The Yen has been in buoyant mood over the last few weeks on repatriation trades ahead of the half-year end and Mr Fujii's comments added impetus to the Yen buying. This was only tempered when he added that his earlier comments were not a sign of neglect over the Yen's value and that he is watching the Yen's rise carefully. He added that he was coming to the view that the move is becoming 'one-sided'. The Yen softened a little but do not expect any serious weakening prior to October trading. Friday's economic data was not particularly conducive to the global growth story with disappointing capex numbers from the US offsetting better consumer confidence figures from the US, Germany and Korea. US equities were disappointed by the weak August durable goods report and finished the day on a bit of a downer. Added to gold trading back below $1000/oz and oil down at $67/barrel, this persuaded traders to take out some of their short Dollar positions going into the weekend. Although the follow through didnt materialise in the Far East this morning, the proximity of the current Euro/Dollar rate (1.4600) to the strong support levels of 1.4550 and 14500 will concern those traders still sitting very long of Euro. A move lower will certainly create some unease and the market will spend the early part of the week looking for data/events that might provoke a sudden bout of weakness in the Euro. The ECB chairman, Trichet attempted to get the Euro moving easier with comments on US support for the Dollar being vital. It looks like all the Central Bankers are following Mr King's lead in trying to make their currencies more receptive to increased exports. Today we get little economic data of significance, just a spate of German CPI figures for the individual States. The election in Germany this weekend went largely as expected with Merkel being returned as Chancellor for a second term. Her coalition partner however has changed. After struggling to deal with the SPD party over the past 4 years, she is now indebted to the FDP for her return to power. The FDP are more centre-right than the SPD and mirrors the situation we had under Helmut Kohl in the period 1982 - 1998. The election result is viewed as being neutral to small positive for the Euro. We have already seen the UK Hometrack housing data released, showing a slightly better out-turn than had been expected, with month/month at +0.2% and year/year at -5.6%. No reaction from Sterling. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
55. The Pound Dives Down Again ! Currency Market Updates - Sterling Dives Again ! 25, September 2009 The combination of negative sentiment towards the pound's value from the supposed Guardian of the currency, the Bank of England, coupled with international concern over the UK's prospects going forward and rumours of the Bank calling a 'crisis' meeting of economists have left Sterling mighty vulnerable. As I said yesterday, it appears that any bounce in its value is solely down to Sterling shorts taking profits and then looking for a better level to re-open their short positions. Expect a lull during the day but then a dip lower at the European close. The weekend press sentiment will be vital for Sterling's health next week as the Far East seem to take what appears in the Sunday Times business comment as being gospel and trade accordingly. Outside of Sterling, interest centres around the G20 get together this weekend and the Swiss National Bank. In Pittsburgh, the focus appears to be shifting away from the Global Financial Crisis towards wranglings over the make up and operation of the IMF. Recent proposals from the US remove the UK and France from the board of the 'new' IMF, which, as I am sure you don't need telling, didn't go down well this side of the Atlantic. Watch this space .. Suffice to say, I don't expect much of substance related to currencies or interest rates but plenty of hot air about bankers' bonuses and who should 'rule the world' in terms of Financial Centre. The Swiss continue their battle against a stronger Franc, emulating King Canute in his abortive attempt to hold back the tide. The nearer we get to 1.50 in Euro/Swiss, the more vocal the Central Bank becomes. Expect lots of comment over the next few days. Conversely, the new Japanese Finance Minister has affirmed that the BoJ will not embark on an exercise to weaken the Yen, for now anyway. Bits and pieces out today but G20 the main point of interest Expect more negativity surrounding the pound. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
56. Make Money Slowly and Steadily with Forex MarketClub Reviews EUR/USD in New Video Make Money Slowly and Steadily with Forex 24 September, 2009 If you have been following this market for any length of time you will have made a good profit. This market is a prime example showing that you do not have to be frantically trading day in and day out to make money with forex trading. The long term approach with fewer trades is certainly a style used by many of us and pays good dividends to the patient trader. This new video will show you how to make money slowly using forex.
Happy trading guys, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
57. Happy Christmas...with Gold ? Market Club Review of the Spot Gold market Will ity be a Golden Christmas? 23 September, 2009 Gold seems stalled but the trend looks good. The spot gold market has proved to be cyclical and taking the 86 day periods we have experienced combined with other prevailing factors we can expect to see gold pushing higher. The long term outlook is good and as we keep watching this market I believe those who stay the distance will be enjoying a very happy and golden Christmas. This new video will show you why.
Happy trading guys, PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir. The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
58. USD Turns Lower Ahead of the G20 Currency Market Updates - USD Turns Lower Ahead of the G20 22, September 2009 The USD traded well for the most part of yesterday as the anticipated a more hawkish tone from the FOMC interest rate meeting due tomorrow night. In particular it is expected that FED will look at an exit strategy soon on measures introduced. In addition as the USD has been sold aggressively in the last 2 weeks so it was unsurprising to see some profit taking in the markets. However in later trading the USD once again turned negative as rumours surrounding the G20 escalated. The talk was that the G20 will call for gains in certain currencies to help reduce global trade imbalances. The USD was further hindered by increased risk appetite as the Asian Development bank upgraded their growth forecasts for Asia for 2009 and 2010. The pound remained under pressure yesterday in particular against the euro hitting a 5 month low. The key level will be 1.10/0.9090 and for the moment this is holding, however we do have the risk event of the Bank of England minutes tomorrow which is expected to reiterate the negativity and dovish tone of the Bank of England. The BoE yesterday in their quarterly report said that "It is possible that sterling's depreciation may be part of a more prolonged process of rebalancing of the UK economy, generating a fall in the long-run sustainable real exchange rate." This statement confirms that the BoE expect a weaker pound going forward. The euro has pushed up to 1.48 against the USD and is still looking bullish especially on the chatter of concern surrounding the USD as a reserve currency. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
59. Few Positives for the Pound Currency Market Updates - Few Positives for the Pound 21, September 2009 The pound came under intense pressure last week falling to 1.10 against the euro and slipping against the USD. The pound has not been helped by wobbly risk sentiment, but the main damage seems to have been inflicted by an article in the Telegraph. The paper reported that Lloyds Banking Group has been forced to abandon its plan to withdraw from the Governments toxic debt insurance scheme after failing to raise enough capital to meet the FSAs strict requirements. Among the other factors weighing on the pound; likelihood of early move by Bank Of England to cut deposit rate paid on bank reserves; likelihood of additional Quantitative Easing coming soon, and of course dire public finances. The recent rally in the FTSE will have provided the pound with some support. The concern is that if equities sell-off the pound could drop further. We need to see some consolidation over the next few trading sessions to support the pound. On top of the bad news surrounding the pound we have also simultaneously witnessed consistent euro strength against the USD pushing up over 1.47. This has helped to keep the euro strong across the markets and also against the pound. In an article over the weekend the Telegraph are pointing towards GBP/EUR hitting parity in the first quarter of 2010. Whilst this cannot be ruled out we must consider that economic sentiment is very fickle at the moment and the tide can change very quickly. This week the Bank of England minutes will be closely scrutinized to asses on further or imminent QE measures from the Bank of England. The USD has made a comeback against the EUR, AUD, JPY and GBP over the last trading session. Previous to this USD weakness seemed to be engrained into the markets as various factors converged to heap pressure on the USD. The recent USD strength coming back into play has been attributed to this weeks FOMC interest rate meeting in the US; the expectation is growing that the Fed will discuss exit strategies in the near future and this will signal a hawkish tone with the potential for interest rate rises to follow. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
60. The Pound Under Pressure Currency Market Updates - The Pound Under Pressure 18, September 2009 The pound is under intense pressure this morning falling to 1.10 against the euro and slipping against the USD. The pound has not been helped by wobbly risk sentiment, but the main damage seems to have been inflicted by an article in the Telegraph. The paper reports Lloyds Banking Group has been forced to abandon its plan to withdraw from the Governments toxic debt insurance scheme after failing to raise enough capital to meet the FSAs strict requirements. As we experienced previously jitters in the UK banking sector hurt the pound and given the bad sentiment already surrounding the pound it is no surprise to see it fall on this news. Among the other factors weighing on the pound are the likelihood of early move by Bank Of England to cut deposit rate paid on bank reserves, the likelihood of additional Quantitative Easing coming soon and of course dire public finances. The recent rally in the FTSE will have provided the pound with some support The concern is that if equities sell-off the pound could drop further. We need to see some consolidation over the next few trading sessions to support the pound. The better than expected public sector net borrowing data gave the pound a reprieve this morning and it has edged up from the lows but a dead cat does not bounce. Yesterday we saw some respite in the selling of USD with a little US dollar strength coming back into the markets against the euro, pound and Japanese Yen. Equities struggled a little yesterday too and this could be a sign that the recent push to sell USD is starting to look tired. Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service. Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks. Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
17, September 2009
The dollar continued to come under pressure across the markets as more positive feedback from global markets spurred on the sentiment that the recession is nearing the end. Yesterday from the US we saw that industrial production and CPI data came in better than expected. Industrial production up 0.8% following the previous days' positive retail sales data. This has given the markets a comfort factor and lessened chatter on a double dip recession. EUR/USD continues to drive towards 1.48 and USD/JPY is pegged at 90.80; even the pound managed to gain up against the USD.
From the UK we had retail sales data and this came in as expected. Although this was slightly disappointing for sterling we have not seen any further selling on the pound. Elsewhere, Bank of England quarterly survey shows Britain's inflation expectations for the coming year holding steady at 2.4% in August, unchanged from May.
In other news the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank both left their interest rates unchanged as expected. Japan upgraded their outlook for the economy and in recent talk they have even moved away from discussing the problem of a stronger Yen. This is an interesting change in rhetoric as a strong Yen undoubtedly impacts on the economy of Japan as an export driven economy, however a stronger Yen will help to boost domestic demand and should actually help formulate a sustainable recovery.
The key levels to look out for today are centered around further USD weakness with 90 on USD/YEN
a huge level; 1.48 on EUR/USD and 1.6650 for GBP/USD. The factors that could turn this seemingly relentless selling of dollars would be a pull back in equities or hawkish comments arising from the Fed.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
15, September 2009
We have experienced a bumpy ride so far this morning in the markets. Sterling started positively touching 1.6650 against the USD and 1.1380 against the euro. EUR/USD also achieved 1.4647 in early trading.
Overnight we had the RICS UK house prices show a rise for the first time in 2 years and then this morning we saw that CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the UK came in stronger than expected at 0.4% for August. This feedback should have given the markets some assurance that inflation levels are slowly rising in line with the impetus of QE. Sterling initially moved higher against the USD and the EUR. As the morning has progressed we have seen German ZEW come in weaker than expected and this has led to a slight sell off in EUR/USD back under 1.46.
However later in the morning Mervyn King swung the markets and sterling into a negative tone. Despite stronger than expected CPI report, Bank of England Governor King feels risks to inflation to the downside. Sterling is sold off across the board after BoE King says he may reduce the interest rate on bank reserves and highlights the long slow road ahead. Sterling has lost over a cent against the USD and is testing the 1.13 level against the euro.
In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia were less hawkish than expected in the minutes of their last interest rate meeting. This has slightly eased the strength of the AUD against the USD back under 0.86. Later today we have US retail sales which volatility is expected and this number should provide more clues to the pace of the recovery in the US.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
See How MarketClub Trade Triangle Alerts Give You The Edge
15 September, 2009
This brand new MarketClub video shows you how "Trade Triangle" ALERTS work and how to use them successfully. It really is not so hard to be a trader in healthy profit if you use this amazing technology.
The recent rise in gold prices for example has given us a great boost and if you were following the "Trade Triangle" alerts I am sure you are smiling now. Take a few minutes to see how it is done. If you missed it, don't worry there are plenty more good trades to do and profit from.
Keep an eye open for the new educational trading videos which come out regularly.
Good Trading,
PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
14, September 2009
The start of this week marks the one year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers when the financial world was turned upside down. Within a close time span of the collapse of Lehmans we witnessed the ripple effect as Halifax Bank of Scotland was swallowed up by Lloyds. We then saw Bradford & Bingley nationalized and further down the line Lloyds and RBS propped up by the UK government. As we recalled the crisis in UK banks ultimately shook the confidence of sterling to the very core and we experienced a seismic shift in the exchange rates with sterling falling swiftly against the euro!
So one year on where do we stand? Well after worldwide economies have injected billions in stimulus to faltering economies we thankfully have experienced some positives on a global scale particularly since June. We have recently witnessed a sustained rally in the equity markets with the FTSE breaking through 5,000 last week for the first time this year. However overall the economic conditions are still far from the pre- Lehman levels and although improvements have ensued we still need to see underlying economic data and consumer data to continue to be positive.
This week we have lots of UK and US data to digest. In the UK we have consumer prices, employment data and retail sales. The market will want to see an improvement in spending. In the US we will see housing data, consumer and producer prices and again retail sales. The big one will be retail sales with strong gains expected.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
11, September 2009
As expected the Bank Of England left interest rates unchanged yesterday and also did not expand the QE measures any further from the £175bn current level. This gave sterling a swift boost as it pushed higher across the markets, gaining on the USD and the euro. Further good news today from the UK as UK August PPI input prices came in at +2.2% stronger than forecasted and the highest since June 2008, output prices came in close to forecasts at +0.2%. GBP/USD has today touched over 1.67 and GBP/EUR has gradually climbed to 1.1450.
The USD is still under immense pressure across the markets losing against most currencies with EUR/USD peaking over 1.46 and NZD/USD hitting a yearly high. The problem with the USD is that it has broken past key levels and the momentum is still there.
In addition, economic news is still coming in positive which is a natural USD sell. Most notably we had improved data from China which encouraged more risk to be undertaken in the markets. US equities have also hit a 2009 high and gold has gone back above $1000.00/oz heaping more pressure on the beleaguered dollar.
The US treasury emissary in Beijing, aptly named David Dollar, added more pressure by stating that "China has a huge amount of foreign reserves and it makes a lot of sense for it to diversify" adding "I think it is healthy to have a variety of different reserve-type currencies. We welcome the internationalization of the renmimbi." Economic data also did not help as the US trade deficit widened in July.
In other news the Bank Of Canada (BOC) left rates unchanged but strongly affirmed that they are not happy with the strength of the Canadian dollar. This led to a sell off in the Canadian currency across the markets as the bank hinted that unconventional measures could be introduced to counter this problem. Basically Canada is hinting at introducing QE.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
10, September 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank Of England today announce their monthly interest rate decision. As we stand it is not expected that interest rates will be cut or that any extension of the Quantitative Easing programme will take place. However last month the market was jolted into life with the shock announcement that QE was expanded by £50 billion and therefore we cannot rule out further expansion today.
The market is reflective of this and sterling has fallen back a little against the USD to the low 1.65s and as low as 1.1320 against the euro. If we do see a further expansion of QE expect more selling of the pound. If you were a market speculator you would be brave to bet against further action from the BoE although no action is expected
In other news the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected, they cited that further rate cuts remain possible but rates will eventually rise when economic recovery is entrenched. The bank also mentioned that the high value of the NZD is threatening to undermine the economic recovery of New Zealand. Similar concerns hold true in Canada, Australia and Japan.
You may have noticed that the UK government and the Bank Of England have not exactly supported the pound with their bearish comments through the economic crisis and although caution has been warranted it has also become beneficial for the UKs economic recovery via a weaker pound.
Yesterday the Federal Reserves beige book confirmed that the economy continued to stabilize in July and August again supporting the better economic news of late. Equity markets continued to perform strongly with the FTSE breaking through 5,000 for the first time this year. Data out of the UK this morning showed that UK Halifax House Price index rose +0.8% which was a touch lower than forecasts.
Expect volatility again in the markets ahead of the BoE decision and the Bank Of Canada decision later
also across the markets the USD remains weak with the dollar index (the USD relative strength against a basket of currencies) falling below 77. Beware of a correction in the USD as it has hit lows across the markets notably against the EUR
, AUD
and NZD.
.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Is Gold Heading for 12,000.00/oz ?
9 September, 2009
This video will show you what you missed!
While you have been sleeping, the gold market has been gradually moving up in a healthy way to give us a nice profit. That is not to say you cannot still benefit.
If you prefer to stay on the sidelines, that's OK. Just keep an eye open for the new videos coming out.
This new video will give you a taste of what it is all about.
Happy trading guys,
PS. Keep an eye open for MarketClub on Fox Business and MSNBC.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
9, September 2009
That is according to the NIESR (National Institute for Social and Economic Research) who yesterday heralded that the in the three months to August the UK economy grew by 0.2%. This news was followed with consumer confidence data improving and follows yesterday's improved numbers in Industrial output and Manufacturing output.
However this morning the pound has already lost ground against the USD and the EUR as the threat of further surprise action in tomorrows Bank of England is weighing on the pound. According to sentiment the BoE should not move on QE, however this cannot be ruled out with the bearish tone of the Monetary Policy Committee. If we do see a further expansion of QE then we will see further weakness in the pound.
The big news yesterday was the sell off in the USD which was across the markets and relentless; the dollar index hit a fresh low as a culmination of facets undermined the USD. The continued boost in equities and the rally in gold is one reason for the USD weakness. In addition the continued call for a new reserve currency most recently by the UN and the concern over the huge deficit in the US. The ECB did back up the USD yesterday by stating that it would be very unlikely for the euro to replace the USD as a reserve currency; notably the USD recovered a touch on this.
Overnight some mixed data from Australia as consumer confidence pushed higher but retail sales came in weaker than expected. This pushed the AUD a little lower, back below 0.86 against the USD and to 1.92 against sterling. For today the theme will be the performance of the USD. Will it rebound or show further weakness? First thing it moved towards 1.645 from 1.6550 against the pound and from 1.4517 to 1.4465 against the euro.
However as I write GBP/USD has pushed back above the 1.65 resistance level and EUR/USD over 1.45. GBP/USD needs to forge above 1.66 on the upside and EUR/USD 1.4550 to underpin the USD weakness and push to higher levels.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
8, September 2009
Gold and commodities continue to outperform in the markets helping lift the ZAR, AUD and CAD. In particular THE AUD
is the star performer hitting yearly highs against the USD
and new highs against sterling.
Sterling had a mixed day against the majors initially pushing higher against the USD and the EUR before losing ground in later trading.
Today UK industrial production is due for release and in the light of the recent drop in manufacturing PMI it could disappoint. News out already from the UK showed that like-for-like retail sales fell 0.1% in August year on year, however overall retail sales increased 2.2%.
As I am writing the USD has lost across the board. Sterling is pushing towards 1.65 and EUR/USD 1.4450; sterling not quite pushing through 1.65 as we await the UK data. So what is causing the USD weakness?
Personally I feel it is a culmination of factors. We have the increased appetite for risk and recent improvements in economic data helping the risk appetite trade. Also the G20 have given the markets comfort by stating that stimulus will not be removed anytime soon until recovery is assured. Another reason is that the markets may be looking at the huge deficit for the US and with recent chatter from the UN that a global reserve currency is required also undermining confidence in the USD.
Look out for volatility today as price action in the equities and commodities sectors will lead to currency volatility.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
7, September 2009
Sterling started on a weak note at the beginning of last week as concerns grew over the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing. With the Bank Of England raising the amount of QE last month by another £50 billion there has still been little real effect in the lending patterns of UK banks which is concerning.
Aside from this the spiraling public debt levels and confirmation from the OECD (The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) that the UK will lag other major economies in a recovery was all weighing on sterling. However we did see gains in sterling come back into play on Thursday and Friday; can this continue?
This week we should see lots of price action in sterling with Industrial Production, producer prices and RICS house price balance. The main event this week will be the interest meeting from the Bank Of England. It is not expected that rates will move even in the light of a call for another cut! However the tone of the Bank Of England will be scrutinized for future action in relation to further QE.
GBP/EUR needs to get back above the psychological 1.15 level before we can relax and feel more comfortable and GBP/USD over 1.65.
On Friday US non-farm payrolls came in better than expected coming in at -216k; this boosted the move into risk appetite and equities rallied and the USD and JPY weakened. It was not all good news for the US economy as the unemployment level rose to 9.7% still enforcing a weak labor market in the US. Should be a little choppy today as we have a US holiday.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
4, September 2009
A good day for the pound yesterday UK PMI services came in better than expected showing the strongest reading since February 2008 and marking the fourth straight month of expansion. This was good news for sterling which traded higher against the USD and the EUR. Against the EUR the pound hit 1.145 and is now eyeing a recovery back over 1.15.
As expected the European Central Bank left rates unchanged. The euro was not helped with a more negatively weighted tone from the European Central Bank in their statement following the decision, although the ECB did upgrade their forecast for growth there was an undertone of caution.
The ECB did not increase the spread on the one year tender and this led to selling of euros. In this case actions spoke louder than words and the improved growth forecast was not backed up with an increase in the one year spread. The central bank also warned that "prudence and caution are the essence" to cement the disappointment for the markets.
Today we have US non-farm payrolls and unemployment. The non-farm payroll data will be a key piece of market information, the expectation is for the number to come in at -230k. A number better or less than this will lead to a boost in risk appetite with the USD gaining against the YEN and losing against most other currencies. However if we see a number over -350k we could see a sharp move into risk aversion and USD strength. With US unemployment data out in addition expect lots of volatility this afternoon.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
3, September 2009
Yesterday was a strange day in the markets as gold perplexed the markets soaring to $22. The reason could be attributed to a move out of equities or a hedge from equities as a safe haven. This backs up the nervous sentiment for September. Within the currency markets this did not lead to any significant breaks out of the current trading ranges, however we did see weakness in the USD
against the pound and the euro. Equities also stuttered yesterday with the DOW finishing down on the day. However the Shanghai index rallied; very strange markets at the moment!
The Federal Reserve as expected kept interest rates on hold and did not offer any surprises on future action maintaining that rates will remain low for some time and a cautious approach is still prevalent even in the light of improved economic conditions.
Today we have the ECB rate decision and it is anticipated that a similar tone will be affirmed, Trichet will rightly want to cement a tone of caution even after the positive GDP postings by France and Germany. The market will look to see whether the ECB increase their growth forecasts. If so, this will be euro positive; another aspect will be whether the ECB increase the spread on the one year tender. If yes, this will denote a hawkish stance and be euro positive and if not the opposite.
Data out already has confirmed that Eurozone retail sales came in at -0.2% which was worse than expected and has led to a little euro weakness in the markets. In the UK services PMI has come in at 54.1, up from 53.2 in July and better than expected. In addition the business expectations index has come in at 72.3 in August from 69.3 in July. This is the highest reading since August 2007. Sterling looking a little more positive today backing up yesterdays gains.
Interesting news in that a joint letter to the European Commission has been issued from the Swedish PM, Italys Confindustria and Germanys BDI warning that the signs for the second half of 2009 are not encouraging. The concern is of a credit crunch to develop in Germany and Italy and drastic action should be taken There has been undertones of rising credit issues for some time and this could de-rail the recovery in Germany. One for the ECB to think about today.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
2, September 2009
Despite good economic data yesterday from the US in the form of US pending home sales and Manufacturing ISM the market flipped into negative mode. There is no one reason for this shift but a culmination of reasons and this led to equities tumbling and Oil and commodities falling. The main losers were the banks as fears rose on renewed balance sheet concerns.
September was previously touted as the month for stocks to fall and the first day of the month definitely backed up this prediction. Concerns over the sustainability of China's growth were a big factor and also discouraging data from automakers. In the markets we witnessed further strength in the USD and the JPY as the risk aversion trend came into play.
GBP/USD
moved from a morning high of 1.6350 to a low of 1.6111 and USD/EUR retreated from 1.43 to 1.42. GBP/YEN fell back under the 150 level as the positive YEN feel on the new leadership continued coupled with strength on the back of risk aversion. USD/YEN moved into 92.00 levels and this brings the 90.00 level into focus again.
Yesterday in the UK economy we had mixed economic data with a rise in mortgage approvals and an improvement in M4 money supply. This is a positive as it lends some weight to the argument that QE may be starting to kick in, however still early days. The bad news was that net lending fell in July by the sharpest pace since records began in 1993 and UK PMI contracted sharply which led to a sharp sell off in sterling. UK construction PMI data just out came in better than previous at 47.7 showing a slowing pace in the contraction in the construction industry. The pound is up slightly on the news.
The big loser yesterday was the AUD losing 2% against the USD as the shift out of risk and commodities weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. Concerns over China and if September does turn out to be a bad month for stocks could see a turnaround from recent AUD strength. The market was a little disappointing at the dovish tone set by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the failure to specify when rates would be hiked. However second quarter GDP came in last night at 0.6% which is much better than expected giving the AUD some support.
Eurozone GDP and Federal Reserve minutes will dominate the data releases for today.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
My Guest Blogger today is Charles Maley
In this article Charles Maley from ViewPointsofaCommodityTrader.com takes a stab at digging into our psyche
enjoy the article!
=====================================================================
I keep CNBC on all day while I work. Perhaps I think I will miss something, or maybe it's the background noise that's appealing. In any event, what I always find amazing is the parade of experts making one prediction after another. I think I would fall out of my chair if I heard one of them say "Well, to tell you the truth Mark, I have no idea".
What's most surprising is the arrogance in which these forecasts are made. The forecaster always seems convinced he is right. I think the world is far more complicated than we think, yet we always seem to place way more value in what we know over what we don't know. If you are an auto mechanic, you most likely know more about fixing cars than you don't know about fixing cars. Also, errors are easily rectified. In this light, a good mechanic is an expert.
If you are a psychologist or an economist, I dont think so. In fact, it's practically impossible that your knowledge of the human condition would exceed your lack of knowledge of the human condition. Not to mention that mistakes can be catastrophic in these "big system" type professions. Plumbers don't kill people but doctors do. Mistakes when predicting the weather, the economy, or the financial markets can and do ruin our lives. Nothing is as potentially dangerous as a rational prediction in an irrational world. So, are there really experts in these professions or are they just the one-eyed men in the land of the blind? I Guess Yogi Berra, the great baseball player/coach had it nailed when he said "It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
I think we love predictions because if we make predictions, and/or concoct explanations for those events we predicted wrong, then we wont feel like victims of randomness. We feel more in control. But are we more in control or just intoxicated by some illusion of control?
In his book "The Black Swan" Nassim Taleb says,"We have seen how good we are at narrating backwards, at inventing stories that convince us we understand the past. In spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it, using tools and methods that exclude the rare events." Funny isn't it, since the big, rare, unpredictable events are precisely what shape the world. Events like the automobile and the World Wars, the internet and the Beatles.
I think it's ironic that by accepting we have little control over most things, actually gives us greater control over what might happen. By realizing our lack of control we may be able to minimize the more negative events. If we realize anything can happen when trading commodities, then we are more likely to actively manage our exposures to big loss and potential ruin.
Charles Maley
Charles has been in the financial arena since 1980. Charles is a Partner of Angus Jackson Partners, Inc. where he is currently building a track record trading the concepts that has taken thirty years to learn. He uses multiple trading systems to trade over 65 markets with multiple risk management strategies. More importantly he manages the programs in the "Real World", adjusting for the surprises of inevitable change and random events. Charles keeps a Blog on the concepts, observations, and intuitions that can help all traders become better traders.
I hope you enjoyed the article,
Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
26, August 2009
The pound had another dismal day in the markets yesterday and has not started particularly well this morning. The pound has slipped to 1.63 against the USD and to 1.1379 against the euro.
With little fresh data from the UK the market is selling sterling more on sentiment, the sentiment being that the UK is diverging in its central bank policy from the ECB and the Federal Reserve. With the prospect of a further contraction in UK GDP on Friday this could be a week to forget for the pound.
Economic data just out from Germany in the IFO survey also came in slightly better than expected for both business sentiment and expectations. This could add more woes to the pound although no price action seen as yet.
Yesterday we had more upbeat data from the US with Consumer Confidence way above expectations and the Home price index also better than expected. This positive feedback from the consumer and housing sector does reinforce the good sentiment in the industry and manufacturing sectors. President Obama also confirmed the re-appointment of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke for another 4 year tenure with much back slapping for his aggressive policies. Although the policies are showing good results now, the question will remain on whether this is sustainable going forward.
In other news Oil dropped in later trading topping out at the $75 level. The Bank of Canada also expressed concerns on the recent strength of the Canadian Dollar
suppressing export related growth. The CAD is particularly strong against
the USD with speculation of moving to parity. Yesterday the fall in Oil and possible the expressed concerns eased USDCAD
the USD/CAD from 1.07 levels to 1.09.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
25, August 2009
Yesterday sterling was on the back foot against the USD and the EUR. In particular the move lower against the euro is important. Although the drop was not significant in size, the fact that we have now breached two key support levels could open the door for a further move lower. The key levels breached were 1.1494 and 1.1467. The pound needs to find some resilience quickly or we could see further drops towards 1.11.
The move lower in the pound was not related to economic data but more to the sentiment divergence between the ECB and the BoE. The ECB yesterday hinted at an exit strategy for stimulus and QE measures, whereas the Bank of England could in fact add more to the QE programme before the end of the year. In addition it is widely expected that on Friday UK GDP will post a further contraction. This contrasts to recent improvements in GDP for France and Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. So this week is going to be important for the pound against the euro as psychologically we are now in a lower trading range.
Later today we have important economic data from the US in the form of Consumer Confidence and the S&P home price index. The Consumer confidence number is important as recently we have seen improved confidence in business and industry sectors. However will this be reflective in the consumer, retail and service sectors. In addition the home price index may highlight a trend of improved data on the back of bargain hunting rather than an improvement in the sector as a whole. Either way the data is important as it is consumer related and the market will look for it to reflect recent positive sentiments.
President Obama is due to re-appoint Ben Bernanke as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This will comfort the markets somewhat and underline the strategy that the Fed has taken over the last year. Personally I don't think he has much choice as a change in the Fed chairman would send out the wrong signals and alarm fragile market conditions.
The big gainer yesterday was the CAD which strengthened on the good performance of Oil but also due to retail sales data coming in at a fantastic 1%, well ahead of forecasts. The AUD retreated a little against the USD but pushed to even higher levels against the pound.the pound. We currently sit at 1.9530.
This morning the USD and the YEN are a little firmer after the Shanghai index lost 5% overnight, this following cautious comments from the Chinese premier and also due to concerns raised on asset bubbles in Chinese banks via the China construction bank.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
24, August 2009
On Friday we had further positive feedback from the US economy as existing home sales came in much better than forecast hitting 2 year highs. This data and a healthy economic assessment from Ben Bernanke boosted the good cheer in the markets. We are approaching the one year mark from the collapse in the financial systems and at the moment things are looking pretty steady and stable.
However I feel economic data will be closely scrutinized in the next quarter to look for sustainability in the markets and not simply a knee jerk response to extra stimulus. An article in the FT by Nouriel Roubini points to a threat of a double-dip recession if recovery turns anaemic.
In the UK, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales reported that business confidence turned positive for the first time in 2 years rising from -28.2 to +4.8. From the UK this week we see little data until Thursday with Gfk consumer confidence and then Q2 GDP. For the US we see the US S&P Home Price index, US Consumer Confidence, Durable goods and New Home Sales. The market will be looking for more signs of growth and sustainability to back up the positive testimony from Ben Bernanke.
Chin up Australia. Yes you have lost the Ashes and the rugby against rivals New Zealand over the weekend. However do not despair as your currency is strong! Hitting new 12 year highs againststerling at 1.9608. Probably not the best news for our Australian friends here in the UK though ;-)
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
18, August 2009
Yesterday we saw a period of consolidation after the markets dipped from Friday. GBP/USD recovered from the 1.62 levels to move back to 1.64 and GBP/JPY gained from 154 to 156 as fears subsided and confidence crept back in. As we have seen on many occasions we are swinging like a pendulum between risk aversion and risk appetite and yesterdays small bounce in equities helped the USD to weaken against sterling.
Data out this morning from the UK demonstrated that July CPI came in at +1.8% month on month, stronger than median forecasts of a fall of -0.3%. This was a surprise and a boost for the pound as the market was looking at more deflationary pressure especially following the Bank of Englands quarterly inflation report which noted that inflation is set to fall below 1% by the autumn. The chief reason for the upward trend of CPI was attributed to the recreation and culture sector, specifically the prices of computer games, DVDs and CDs.
In other data out we saw the ZEW survey on economic sentiment for August in Germany come in at 56.1 versus 39.5 in July, this was stronger than forecast and is reflective of the positive growth in Q2 GDP. You may have expected this to rally the euro but no gains as it remains mute at 1.4120 against the USD and GBP/EUR is up a touch to 1.1630.
Economic data and risk appetite/aversion in equities has been the recent drivers for the forex markets. However be aware that on a technical basis GBP/USD and EUR/USD are now looking in a bearish trend and could forge a move to 1.5980 on GBP/USD and 1.3850 on EUR/USD If the markets fail to be led by sentiment and equities then we could see a move lower on the technicals. Sterling may be nervous also ahead of UK retail sales data on Thursday
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
August 14, 2009
Discover How You Can Prosper in the Next 12 Months
I thought I would move away from the forex and gold markets today. I want to concentrate on something that has been a 100% winner over the last two years. It is something you may not have considered but I believe you will benefit from it. Want to spend a few minutes to find out what it is?
In this latest video you will see how this index has given us pure profit over the last 24 months.
We tracked both the monthly and weekly buy/sell signals using MarketClub's Trade Triangles. With the monthly signals we only had three signals where we went long at 326.84 and sold at 396.80 leaving a good gain of 69.96. Our second buy signal made us 167.18 points. Result over 2 years, total gain of 237.14 points. No loosing trades.
The weekly signals are more frequent, showing several more trades. For those traders who like to be active in the market, you may prefere the weekly Trade Triangles. They too were a 100% correct but with slightly less gain. This shows you that it is not necessaily the amount of trades you make that makes the most money.
Finally, you will see that MarketClub has a unique feature. "Talking Charts" are just that, they allow you to "hear the market". In this case we are told that this market is strong and will protect you through inflation and deflation.
Good Trading,
Tom.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
14, August 2009
The markets had an optimistic start yesterday buoyed with the positive news that France and Germany posted positive Q2 GDP numbers at +0.3% respectively. The news rallied the markets with sterling
and the euro
both making some gains against the USD. The FTSE also hit a 10 month high. GBP/USD made a move back above 1.66 and EUR/USD to 1.43 as appetite increased. The mood changed in later trading as US data came in weaker than expected. US retail sales posted lower at -0.1% and weekly jobless claims rose by 4,000 swinging the market back into more caution with USD gaining back.
Overnight the cautious mood was reflective in the Shanghai index which fell 3% and just after 8:00 am this morning GBP/USD dropped 75 pips down to 1.65. With little data today I would expect to see markets led by equities and in all probability no significant breaks with GBP/USD in the 1.65's and EUR/USD between 1.4250-1.43.
Last night we had a 50 basis point cut in interest rates in South Africa down to 7%, also the Reserve Bank of Australia affirmed that they will look to raise interest rates when economically viable. This has added more strength to the AUD versus the USD and sterling;
GBP/AUD is now just over 1.96 bringing us back to 1997 lows.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
13, August 2009
Official data this morning has confirmed that Q2 GDP has come in positive 0.3% for both France and Germany. Far better than expected and very surprising against a back drop of heavily contracting GDP for the nations at the back end of 2008 and early 2009. In addition Eurozone GDP has just come in at -0.1% much better than the forecast of -0.5%- this means that the Eurozone as a whole is nearing a turn to positive growth.
In the markets the euro has gained a little against the USD but no move at all against the pound. Personally I thing the good numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt as the GDP gains could align to stimulus input over a real turn in demand. Recently we saw that Eurozone Industrial Production fell 0.6% with falls noted in France and Germany and credit conditions remain tight, especially in Germany. I feel we need to look for more economic feedback to substantiate this gain in GDP before we can declare that France and Germany are on the road to recovery.
Yesterday we had lots of news; firstly in the UK unemployment came in at 7.8% higher than forecast and the eagerly awaited Bank Of England quarterly inflation was released. The report offered no real surprises but was slightly more upbeat than expected. In summary lets look at the negatives. The recovery could be slow and protracted, interest rates will remain low for some time and inflation could fall below 1% by the autumn. On the upside growth should resume in Q1 2010 and attain a level of 3% in 2 years. Sterling gained slightly on the news but no big movements as the FED decision loomed.
Onto the FED and again no real surprises. More optimism noted as the Fed affirmed that the US economy is leveling out and no expansion of the $300 bn treasury purchase programme which should expire in October- 1 month later than predicted. There naturally was a cautious tone noting that the economy could remain weak for some time and that interest rates should remain exceptionally low for an extended period. This last point on interest rates is important as the market was hoping that interest rates could rise in the near future. This could now lead to USD weakness again in the near term as global optimism will reinforce the risk appetite momentum with less optimism on interest rate hikes which is USD positive.
Huge volatility in the markets as they change gear quicker than a Ferrari (not that I would know). The return to risk appetite has seen GBP/JPY
now move from 156 back to 159 and GBP/AUD
from 2 down to 1.97 so a complete reversal to the position yesterday morning...
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
12, August 2009
Already this morning we have had the release of eagerly awaited jobless claims and UK unemployment. UK jobless claims came in better than expected at +24,900 against expectations of +28,000, however the ILO unemployment rate nudged up to 7.8% from 7.6% against the expectation of 7.7%, worse than expected. No move in the markets as yet.
We have seen a sell off in sterling ahead of today so to a large extent negativity has already been factored in. The market will also be focusing mainly on the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report and we will wait to hear substantiation of last weeks expansion of QE coupled with growth and inflation forecasts. The tone is expected to be dovish and could lend to further weakness in the pound. However, if the Bank close the door on further monetary stimulus we should see a bounce in the pound.
Yesterday we saw further USD gains against the pound and the euro and also in later trading a move into risk aversion mode as the YEN also gained and commodity linked currencies weakened. This was very apparent in GBP/JPY moving from 160 to 156, however, on the other hand GBP/AUD moved up from 1.9650 back over 2.
Concerns over China and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting tonight changed the tone back to risk aversion. In China loan growth fell to $52 billion from $248 billion a month earlier. China is still spending like a footballer's wife in Bond Street and GDP based on output is near 8%. However the fear is that this growth and stimulus is ultimately not sustainable and banks the extra liquidity is not having the desired effect and instead is buoying equities with the Shanghai index up 80% this year. The central bank estimates that 20% of fresh credit has ended up in equity markets.
The main event for today is the FED decision with no change in rates expected but focus on the strategy going forward- particularly in relation to inflation expectations and a potential exit strategy from QE.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
11, August 2009
The pound suffered heavily in trading yesterday and has continued on a weak tome this morning. Yesterday the pound fell against the USD,EUR, JPY, NZD, AUD. So basically across the markets. The reason for the fall in the pound is down to the factoring in of negative feedback from the UK economy tomorrow from the UK Quarterly Inflation Report and from UK unemployment data.
The quarterly inflation report is expected to emphasise a downgrade in growth forecasts for the UK and to highlight why the expansion of QE by 50 billion pounds was deemed necessary. The UK unemployment data is expected to show further rising unemployment in the UK as we approach unemployment levels of 2.5 million.
GBP/USD
retraced from 1.67 to 1.645 and GBP/EUR
dropped from 1.1770 to 1.16. Sterling also slipped under 160 against the Japanese Yen, hit a Feb 2008 low against the NZD at 2.4337 and hit lows not seen since 1997 against the AUD of 1.9622.
One positive that helped to stem the free fall came in the form of data from RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) which identified that house price balance came in at -8.1, better than the expected -10 and the highest reading since August 2007. In addition newly agreed sales also rose to the highest reading since August 1999.
Recently we have seen a flurry of improved data from the housing sector and this has rallied the optimists into talking of a recovery in this sector. So can we sit back and expect to see a recovery and rising house prices?
Personally I fear not as normally a property crash lasts about 5 years. In the UK we still have rising unemployment which will undoubtedly have a knock on effect in the housing sector and lastly when interest rates increase from current low levels we could see a reality check as repayments and mortgage rates rise.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
10, August 2009
On Friday we saw the much anticipated US non-farm payroll numbers come in far ahead of expectations. The number of job losses in July came in at -240,000 against a forecast of -325,000. This was a huge lift for the markets and the US economy following 19 months of dire payroll numbers.
As anticipated the Dow and the FTSE rallied on the news as investor optimism increased. However, in the currency markets we did not see the typical play into risk appetite trading and USD weakness. Initially we did see the USD weaken against the euro
and the pound however this weakness was short lived and the USD rallied back considerable across the markets.
So what does this mean? Well it could mean a change in sentiment for the US economy whereby it no longer weakens on good news. The key driver for this is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve may now look to raise interest rates sooner than other major economies and is better placed to do so. The economic data also helped to comfort the markets to viewing that the Fed will not look to expand (like the UK) its current measures on QE and ultimately that the economy is out of the deep water it was once in.
It is still early days but a very good number nonetheless and could mark a turning point. GBP/USD filtered down to 1.66 and EUR/USD down to 1.4155.
A big mover after the data was USDJPY,
the USD finally managed to jump clear of 95.00 and gain 200 points to move over the resistance level of 97.00. This could open the door for a move to 100. Another one to watch is GBP/AUD which is back down to 1.98; this is due to a dampened pound following the QE expansion and expectations that Australia will also look to raise rates before most major economies.
The main news this week will focus on the Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday from the Bank of England. Here the market will be looking to gauge the UK's inflation projections and growth projections. The projections are especially key following last weeks expansion of QE by 50 billion pounds.
The market will want to see evidence to see why this expansion occurred and that it reflects and underlying reason. It is widely expected that the Bank will confirm that the economy has shrunk by more than Alistair Darling's estimate of 3.5%. No surprise there.
On Wednesday we also see official unemployment data from the UK, contrary to the US numbers we are expected to see a rise in the number of jobless.
Another key event this week is the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday evening, the expectation is that the Fed will confirm no extension of easing policies and may refer to a turning point in the economy.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
August 7, 2009
Gold is Rising - Fibonacci is Doing His Thing!
Looking at gold again (spot gold) we are close to the mark we want to be. Keep a close eye on the close today.
You will see exactly what I mean when you take a look at this new video.
Then next week we will be looking for more profit.
Remember, it is our old Fibonacci, the thirteenth century Italian mathematician, who is helping us here. He discovered a set of numbers which have been found to have a major affect on the market. His work produced a useful tool which we use in technical analysis along with our "Trade Triangles" and "Talking Charts"
Watch now because this important gold video will not be online for long.
Following up on Phil McHugh's article, the US non-farm figures came in better than expected at -247,000 giving the market a welcome boost.
Have a good weekend,
Good Trading,
Tom.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
7, August 2009
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.5% but in a surprise move they increased the QE programme by 50 billion ponds. This immediately caused a sharp drop in sterling across the markets losing about 1% against the USD and the euro.
The move can be described as aggressive and ultimately cautious at the same time; aggressive in relation to instilling the liquidity to revive a strong recovery and cautious in the sense that recent positives have not swayed the BoE into taking a recovery for granted.
Next week we have the quarterly inflation report from the Bank of England and this will be interesting as the extra QE measures will be extra inflationary. Will the report make a view on this? The move by the bank clearly indicates that deflation remains a concern coupled with tight lending and credit conditions. Expect the pound to come under pressure as a cautious note will surround the pound ahead of next week's inflation report.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also left rates unchanged at 1% and offered no change in mood from the last monthly meeting. Trichet mentioned that they remain cautious on growth but at the same time there were no additional QE or stimulus measures hinted at. This will be largely supportive of the euro as a currency and although EUR/USD fell slightly yesterday expect to see it hold firm around 1.44 before the US data this afternoon.
Later today we have the US non-farm payroll data at 13:30 GMT. This is the biggest economic data release for the markets and the number today will be closely scrutinized. The labor market has been suffering since early 2008 and unemployment is now approaching 10%. Recently however, jobless claims have moderated and therefore it is expected that the number released today will be better than expected.
Last month we saw a loss of 467,000 jobs and this month the forecast is for -325,000. However, whispers are circulating that the number could be as good as -200,000. If we get a number better than -250,000 expect to see a big move with the USD weakening as risk appetite explodes onto the market. GBP/USD will move higher on the back of dollar weakness over sterling strength and EUR/USD will move back over 1.44.
However a number over -250/300k will disappoint and could lead to USD strength. Either way expect lots of volatility in the run up and immediate aftermath.
Have a good weekend!
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
6, August 2009
That is will the Bank Of England extend the current measures in place for Quantitative Easing? It will be a mighty close call and will be a defining juncture for the UK's monetary policy sentiment. On the one hand the economy is still fragile objectively and lending certainly has improved. In July the measure of money supply fell by the most this year and lending to companies has fallen for three months in a row.
On the other economic data in the last week could sway a decision to hold and adopt a wait and see approach. The problem with this is that if they hold now and start again later then it will not look very good. QE already introduced will not have had much effect in the markets as it will take time to filter through. For the currency markets the repercussions should be very clear. An increase in QE will lead to selling pressure in sterling and no change could push us beyond 1.70 against the USD
and 1.18 against the EUR.
We also have the European Central Bank (ECB) decision today and no change is expected in the rate of 1%. However will the ECB adopt more QE measures themselves? Personally I doubt it. The IMF recently stated that the ECB should look to cut further, however I would expect a stoic disregard of their view from the ECB. The ECB may offer clues to future monetary policy strategies and again this could play into the relative strength of the euro.
Yesterday we saw lots of positive data snaps from the UK economy with Halifax House prices, PMI services, Industrial output, manufacturing output all better than forecast. Sterling tried to push higher and did break above 1.70 but could not hold ahead of today's announcement.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
5, August 2009
Mostly sideways trading yesterday as sterling and the euro failed to advance further against the USD We did see a test of the key 1.70 level but if you blinked you may have missed it. US equity markets also struggled to find a direction swinging between gains and losses with the Dow Jones finally ending slightly up.
A pause is probably sensible now as news may materialize that the optimism is not warranted and the overheated markets will quickly retreat. We have a three-pronged event risk this week as we have the monthly BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday and also the payrolls report on Friday from the US. It seems the market will await further direction from these event risks.
News out already in the UK confirmed that UK Nationwide consumer confidence rose to 60 in July, up 1 point from June, not earth shattering but good news nonetheless. The UK Halifax house price index rose +1.1% month on month again above median forecasts of +0.6%. Lloyds banking group announced that they lost 4.0 billion pounds in the first half of 2009 attributing most of the losses to HBOS assets. The number again was better than forecast for a 5.1 billion pound loss.
UK July services PMI has come in at 53.2, up sharply from 51.6 in June, some way better than median forecast of 51.8. UK June industrial/manufacturing output data has come out at +0.5% m/m and +0.4% month on month respectively, stronger that median forecasts of flat and -0.1%. So good news flowing from the UK economy this morning but the markets are yet to sustain a move above 1.70 on the USD or 1.18 on the euro.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
August 4, 2009
Fibonacci Works His Magic in a New Video!
Last week we looked at what was happening in gold and we had the signal to short our position.
Since then we had the signal to buy and have seen the reversal with a nice profit. We are looking for both gold and crude to go higher right now. Take a few minutes to see the technical analysis in action in this new video. Two major markets and two major reversals. More profit.
If you have never heard of Fibonacci, he is the thirteenth century Italian mathematician who discovered a set of numbers which have been found to have a major affect on the market. His work produced a useful tool which is used in technical analysis and by scientists in a large array of fields to this very day.
I believe you will find it very informative,
Good Trading,
Tom.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
4, August 2009
The pound rediscovered its former glory yesterday but will it last? This morning we have tested the much feted 1.70 level but quickly retreated. We have witnessed a few false dawns in the past for the pound and the Bank Of England decision on Friday will be in the back of the mind for sterling bulls.
On Thursday the Bank Of England may announce a further expansion on the quantitative easing programme by 25 billion pounds which will be sterling negative. On the other hand they may decide to leave it be and this could help sterling push over the 1.70 level and advance against other major currencies such as the euro and the yen.
The pound has been boosted by improved economic data,in particular the UK manufacturing PMI which rose to 50.8 from 47.4 on June. This was well above expectations and a number above 50 denotes expansion in the sector. This is the first sign of expansion since March 2008. In addition to this economic data the results from HSBC and Barclays were a great comfort to the pound removing some of the fears surrounding the UK banking sector.
More bank results this week from Lloyds and RBS. Northern Rock has reported a loss of 724.2 million pounds for the first 6 months of 2009 and confirmed that 3.92% of its mortgage loans were over three months in arrears. This is worrying as it is well above the national average of 2.39%. However losses were expected and there are signs of optimism for the Rock with applications for new mortgages doubling in the second quarter of the year.
In other news the Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged and in their statement following they removed the line "there remains some scope for further easing of monetary policy" indicating that no further cuts will be on the table.
The USD remains under pressure across the markets with EUR/USD hitting 1.44 and GBP/USD 1.70. The dollar index fell to its weakest level since mid December
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
3, August 2009
Sterling has pushed up to over 1.18 against the euro and just over 1.68 against the US dollar. Sterling was helped by improved housing data and better than expected banking numbers and results from UK corporations including BT and Cadbury.
Second quarter GDP data in the US was also better than expected as GDP fell by 1% in the second quarter against an expected 1.5%. This helped comfort the markets, weaken the USD and continue the bull-run in equities. We have now shifted into a higher trading range against the USD after breaking above 1.66 finally.
Barclay's results showed that first half earnings rose 10% and net income came in at 1.89 billion pounds from 1.72 billion pounds a year earlier. This is below median forecasts but still strong numbers- we have Lloyds and RBS later in the week.
One particularly big event risk for GBP/USD comes later in the week in the form of the latest Bank of England MPC meet. Rates are almost certain to be kept on hold but it is what the bank does regarding quantitative easing that matters. This could stem the sterling bulls as we approach the decision on Thursday.
German retail sales for June have come in at -1.8% month on month, -1.6% year on year, demonstrably weaker than median forecasts calling for rises of +0.5%, +0.9% respectively. This has helped the pound test the 1.18 level.
Report by Phil McHugh.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
31, July 2009
As we saw yesterday German unemployment figures rose to 3.46m from 3.41m. German unemployment has been on the rise since November 2008 and in March 2009, it hit its peak to date, by 66,000. The government expects unemployment to increase to 3.7 million this year and to 4.6 million in 2010, which is yet another indicator that The Eurozone will leave interest rates unchanged at 1% next week at the monetary meeting and it is widely understood that the key interest rates for the Eurozone will remain around this level for the rest of 2009, heading into 2010. Thursday next week we also have the Bank of England interest rate decision, where again we are likely to see no change from current levels of 0.50%.
Consumer prices in Japan continued to fall for the fifth consecutive month in June on a year-over-year basis, with the latest decline being the steepest on record, government data showed this morning. At the same, unemployment increased further.Month-on-month, overall consumer prices were down 0.2% in June, and core consumer prices also dropped at the same pace.
Meanwhile, jobless rate climbed further to hit a six-year high in June. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate climbed to 5.4% from 5.2% in May. Economists expected the rate to come in at 5.3%. This is the highest rate since June 2003, and was just short of the record 5.5% set in April 2003. On the back of this data the Yen is trading around the 157.60-158.00 level.
Data due out today includes Eurozone Consumer price index, Eurozone unemployment figures, US Personal consumption and US Gross domestic produce. With Germany being the largest country in the Eurozone expect today's unemployment figures to follow trend on German figures, so we could see euro weaken slightly further throughout the day.p>
The start of August could continue with the theme of volatility for anyone trading USD,
EUR and pretty much most of the widely traded currencies.
Report by Sam Blaney.
Business Trading: Challenging traditional banking conventions, Currencies Direct guarantees to beat any retail bank both in price and service.
Personal Trading: From the moment we were established our aim has been simple. To provide a personalised service and save our clients money from dealing with traditional banks.
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 29, 2009
The wait is over, it is Thursday and Ivybot is here!
The most anticipated moment of the past few years in Forex Automated Trading Systems is finally here.
IvyBot is available to the public for the first time and I thought you should be among the first to hear about it and use it if you have not already. I cannot remember having never seen this much fuss made over any product release before.
Many of you have viewed the report put out by IvyBot, I know thousands attended the webinars, which turned out to be extremely good by all accounts! If you did have a chance to attend I am sure you have noticed that these guys are all about presenting the facts, features and benefits. They are not ones to add all the hype, because frankly, IvyBot doesn't need all of that...it speaks for itself.
IvyBot has established a new standard in Forex Trading. You can now see what all the financial heavyweights have been talking about and become an owner yourself for very little money.
But what is so different about this Forex Robot? It's simple really, every robot on the market today has 1 system (robot) trading multiple currency pairs. This didn't make sense to the Ivybot team and it shouldn't make sense to you either. That's where the real genius of IvyBot comes in. IvyBot gives you 4 Robots, 1 for each currency pair in which it was designed. How can the other systems possibly have ONE piece of code capable of performing all the calculations on more than one currency pair? THEY CAN'T! IvyBot has a robot that is designed, optimized, and perfectly tailored to trade each currency pair and you have four of them.
These are the four currency pairs you will be trading with IvyBot EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF (some interesting trades there) and USD/JPY. Technology is improving our lives daily, in ways we can only imagine. So why not allow it to improve your Forex Trading?
So finally, the market insiders have brought you the technology previously enjoyed by only a select group of sophisticated individuals, the same individuals who have enjoyed these successes all to themselves for years.
From today forward, being "an insider" isn't important because you will now have something better, something more profitable and something you will never see on the market again.
The best part is that the IvyBot Team will keep you in the "Know" with constant updates to the member's area. There is a very good reason why IvyBot has been posted all over the Net these past weeks...because it truly is a unique robot.
Good Trading,
Tom.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
30, July 2009
Interestingly, Bank of England data released yesterday highlighted the fact that British companies are paying down bank loans at a record rate. Whilst at the outset this may be seen as a positive, it is highly likely that the reason behind the debt repayments is not because firms are cash rich, but rather due to firms breaking their banking covenants and banks placing pressure on firms to repay.
Moreover, the option of re-financing is likely to be very slim as few banks have appetite to take on new deals, especially from struggling firms. The flurry of debt raising activity that we saw in the first quarter of this year appears to not be going towards expansion and is simply going to pay down bank debt. This raises the important question as to whether the Bank of England will look to extend their quantitative easing programme.
Other UK data out yesterday showed that mortgage approvals jumped to their highest level in more than a year but consumer lending remained very weak, recording the smallest rise on record. A small easing in credit conditions coupled with increased buyers interest have been cited as the reason for the 14 month high in home loan approvals. But don't get too excited, approvals need to be translated into hard sales, whilst most believe the housing market is starting to improve few will call a bottom to the market.
Nationwide house prices out this morning echoed the positive housing sentiment with a 1.3% month on month gain in prices, taking the yearly change to -6.2%; this beat expectations of a small 0.2% monthly gain (and -7.2% year on year).
This positive data has given GBP/USD a boost this morning seeing GBP/USD touch 1.65 level before retreating back to current levels of 1.6475.
GBPEUR has also hit a month high at 1.1750,on the release of the German data.
In the Eurozone, Germany reported unemployment figures this morning, the number of people out of work rose to 3.46m from 3.41m. This is hardly surprising as companies have cut jobs to protect margins. Note that July's seasonally adjusted reading came in at -6,000 due to a statistical change; the adjusted jobless rates was unchanged at 8.3%.M
On a sweeter note, we all appear to be eating more chocolate as Cadbury's announced a surprise 13% jump in chocolate revenues for the 1st half of 2009.
Report by Currencies Direct
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
29, July 2009
In the last few weeks we have seen a number of attempts to breach 1.65 on GBP/USD and every time the market has failed to hold above this level. A similar pattern has emerged in USD/JPY which has struggled to hold over 95. In the last four trading days we have seen a tight trading range for GBP/USD which is unusual in the light of the volatility in the last few months.
Today we have a few data snaps in the calendar for the UK which could shake the markets back into life. We have UK mortgage approvals, consumer credit, net lending and M4 money supply out this morning.
Yesterday the USD strengthened against the pound from over 1.65 back to 1.6350 and from 1.4280 down to 1.4108 against the euro. US stock markets fell more than 1% and this helped swing money back into the USD. US economic data supported the trend into risk aversion as consumer confidence fell from 49.3 to 46.6, the lowest level in 3 months.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell 17.1% in May. This is the main measure of US house price movements. In addition US corporate earnings were shaky and Bank of America announced that they will be shutting 10% of branches signaling further lay offs.
Later today we have durable goods orders and the Fed beige book which will give further insight into the health of the US economy. Again good data will lead to a weaker USD and vice versa. Key moves in the markets from yesterday were EUR/USD topping just under 1.43; AUD making gains across the markets and GBP/USD retracing from 1.65.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
28, July 2009
More positives as equities continued their bull run with the FTSE posting another gain yesterday. The markets were boosted by further signs that the weakness in the US economy was bottoming out. US new home sales rose 11% in June far outstripping expectation. Firming and improvement in the housing sector is vital to underpinning recovery.
The housing sector is a leading indicator to downturn/upturn in any economy and the news yesterday was greeted well by the markets. Sustainability is still the key going forward in this sector and we are still not out of the woods but closer than ever.
As is the trend this good news led to further weakness in the USD and stocks experiencing their longest rally since 2003. The dollar index dropped to its lowest level this year and the main beneficiaries were higher yielding commodity based currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar.
Later yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged, however the speech by governor Glenn Stevens certainly livened the markets into more action. His speech basically underlined a change in tact from dovish to neutral and raises the prospect of interest rate rises in Australia before any other major economy.
The AUD rallied across the market, AUD/GBP down under 2 at 1.9840 and AUD/USD jumping to 0.8250 on the news. Potentially the AUD could reach new highs if risk appetite continues and commodities continue to rally.
Other economic data affirmed that Italian July consumer confidence rose to 107.5, up from 105.4 in June and better than the median forecast of 105.9. It is the highest read since November 2007. Meanwhile, French industry demand fell in the Q-2 but less sharply than in previous two quarters.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
27, July 2009
Better than expected US corporate earnings and cautiously optimistic comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke helped uphold the recent move into risk. Sterling has moved higher against the USD this morning with risk appetite supporting this move even in the light of last week's sharp contraction in GDP.
The pound is currently being underpinned with the improved performance in equities, however any reversal in this trend may lead to a sharp sell off in the pound. The pound this morning has also had a helping hand from an article in the Financial Times stating that in the short term China has no choice but to embrace the USD.
This week we have another flurry of corporate earnings with about a third of S&P 500 companies reporting results. How high will the S&P go? It is expected that the positive trend will continue.
The main data this week will be US centered. We will kick off with new home sales for June and a small rise is expected. On Tuesday the conference board will release its July consumer confidence index on Tuesday. Wednesday we see durable goods orders which are forecast to show a decline for June and GDP on Friday.
It will be interesting to see how the economic data stacks up against the corporate earnings. So far the positive earnings are overshadowing any weaker data and this is playing out in the markets, however this trend may not hold.
Data released has again been positive from Germany as Gfk consumer confidence came in better than expected at 3.5, up from 3.0 in July. This is the strongest reading since June 2008 and lifting the euro against the dollar to 1.4250
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
24, July 2009
Sterling started strongly in early trading moving towards 1.6550 on the USD, 1.1650 against the Euro, and testing 157 on the Yen.
We then had the release of UK second quarter GDP which gave sterling a cold shower dropping a full cent against the USD and slipping against most other currencies. The GDP number came in at -0.8 against a forecast of -0.3 This brings the year on year fall to -5.6% and is the biggest year on year fall since records commenced in 1955.
The USD strengthened a little yesterday following comments from the Fed that they may not actually need to buy all of the bonds that it previously announced This is effectively reining in the Feds QE measures. If we look back as to the level of weakness that the USD experienced on the announcement of the fed printing money We saw a move from 1.29 to 1.47. Similar hints sprung from the Bank of England as MPC member Andrew Sentence said that the MPC could pause it's bond-buying program. This added support for sterling.
Other data out today came in positive for Germany as PMI data was stronger than expected at 45.2; up from 40.9 in June in manufacturing and 48.4 from 45.2 for services. French PMI was mixed as manufacturing improved but services dropped.
The main mover in the markets yesterday was the Japanese Yen which retreated against the USD, EUR and GBP. It seems Japanese investors are now looking at overseas assets and yield as confidence in the markets improves. GBP/JPY is up from 148 last week to 156 this morning.
Nothing major of note for the rest of today. Timothy Geithner the US treasury secretary will deliver a press conference on the US economy as 14:00 GMT. Aside from that I would expect to see further grappling between tight ranges today. sterling will be under pressure on the weak GDP but supported by good risk appetite.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
23, July 2009
Yesterday's minutes showed the more positive economic outlook expressed by the MPC members at their most recent meeting. The minutes showed that the team had concluded that recent indicators were "consistent with a smaller contraction in GDP in the second quarter than it anticipated 2-months ago."
This makes tomorrow's preliminary 2nd Quarter GDP release even more important for both interest rates and the currency.
Today we are scheduled to get the next chapter in the consumer confidence saga with the publication of last month's retail sales numbers. The 'scribblers' have gone for a small monthly rise which, if borne out, will likely leave markets un-moved. The danger of course is again on the disappointing side. We have seen so many false dawns over the past few months that the old adage of 'buy on the rumour, sell on the fact' might very well prove to be the correct trading strategy.
The big mover overnight was the Yen which suffered all round on anticipation of the launch of a series of Toshin at the end of the week ie tomorrow. Toshin are Japanese domestic investment trusts which will invest in overseas assets and foreign currencies and estimates are for as much as $ 40 billion to be on offer. Such investment funds do not always gather the amount of funds that the offer allows and sometimes the appetite for them falls well short.
The market therefore, watches the uptake carefully for clues on the yen's likely short term direction. There is no certainty as yet which assets the trusts will invest in but favourites appear to be a combination of traditional, mature markets such as the US and the UK as well as the perceived high yield and strong growth areas such as Brazil, Australia, Turkey and South Africa. It might be a difficult few hours for the Yen
Equities remain bubbly with the FTSE 100 showing its eighth straight positive trading day. The longest run since 1993 and Wall Street ending higher despite disappointing results yesterday from the financial institutions reporting.
Traders were happy enough to remain positive after good numbers from Apple and Starbucks with the mood cemented in after-hours dealing by better than expected numbers from eBay. Can we make it another positive day? Well the retail sales figures will be important but a string of results from the US, more so. This afternoon we get 2nd Quarter earnings from such corporate stalwarts as Microsoft, Xerox and AT&T whilst great interest will centre upon the report from CIT Group, who have been going through such a trying time recently.
News overnight was quite sparse with the only real thing of note being the Brazil Central Bank cutting their official rates by 0.5% as expected.
Today we have little major economic news from either the Eurozone and from the US, just weekly jobless claims. So are left waiting for Central Bank comment/equity news for a clue to early direction. Scheduled speakers today are also few and far between with only the Fed's Fischer due to address with a speech on the economic outlook timetabled at 6.20 this evening.
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 22, 2009
I have 5 brand new videos for you covering various markets. There is a huge amount of valuable information contained in these educational trading videos, so make the most of them now.
What's the best strategy for USO?
Revisiting and reanalyzing the USD/JPY
How you SHOULD have traded Goldman Sachs
Help yourself to these videos. They make trading easier than you think and are designed to help you make more money than you expected. They will also save you money by showing you how to avoid downturns in the market.
Good Trading,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
22, July 2009
Sterling is the big loser overnight in the markets and it is on the ropes this morning again. Recently we have witnessed a consistent pattern of steady gains followed by a sharp sell off. The pound has retraced to 1.63 against the GBP/USD
and 1.15 against the euro.
The 1.15 level is a crucial support on GBP/EUR
and a break below 1.15 will be worrying for the pound. So what is causing this renewed weakness for the pound?
Initially the rot was started with the confirmation that June's public sector net borrowing came in at 13 billion pounds. The figures were actually better than expected but still underlined the dire state of public finances and understandably focused attention as to how we can climb out of this debt? Cue feedback from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) which said that government finances will remain deeply in the red for at least 4 years and this is based on the Treasury tightening the crews on public spending to a higher degree than planned so a tighter reign on spending and inevitable tax rises is on the menu beyond the next election; very appetizing.
Sterling has suffered on this negativity as it does on any scent of bad news; a couple of articles also added to pressure on the pound. The first reported in the Financial Times highlighting a survey that more than half of businesses did not see any improvement in their prospects for at least another 12 months. The second through the Telegraph noted that Barclays and RBS will need billions more in capital if they are to continue growing their investment banks.
Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to congress affirmed that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy due to the fragility of the US economy. He aimed to soothe those worried on inflation rising sharply by adding that the extraordinary policy measures would be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner. So no exit strategy or focus on raising interest rates in the near term and the energy is still definitively on nurturing a sustained economic recovery. The USD firmed on the back of the cautious note by Bernanke.
In other news the Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold and provided a more upbeat tone than expected on the current health of the economy. It also softened its tone on the relative strength of the Canadian dollar but did note that the strength of the currency was a problem.
The Bank Of England minutes just released offered no surprises with a vote of 9-0 to keep rates on hold and to maintain QE levels at 125 billion pound. Slightly sterling supportive as the minutes noted a reduction in the downside risks on GDP.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 22, 2009
As ETF's are becoming more and more popular I am looking, today, at The United States Natural Gas Fund.
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) had a spectacular run up and an equally infamous drop. Yet we have been able to make money from this commodity driven market. You can see how in this video.
From the end of July last year our "Trade Triangles" have been pointing the way to cut our losses and make more profit. After an initial loss of .77 cents we went on to make a profit of $9.98. In total, over this period we made we made 9 trades where 5 of them where winners and 4 were losses.
This is a 55% success rate but more importantly we made a substantial profit of $24.99 per share. You can check today's prices here.
Checking the current situation I use the "Talking Charts" which immediately tell me that the intra-day, intermediate and long term indicators are all negative with only the short term looking positive. Armed with this information and chaecking against our weekly "Trade Triangles" we can judge the timing of our short and long positions.
Good Trading,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
My Guest Blogger today is Dan Gramza
Hello everyone, this is Dan Gramza and welcome to Gramza Market
Studies Technical Tip.
Well today we're going to be talking about selling rallies. Now what does it mean when people say, "sell the rally" when you want to get into a trade? Or they sell a pull back? Or you hear things like,"The Trend Is Your Friend?"
Well we're going to explore this here in just a minute. I want to show you the technique and I want to show you some examples of how these markets behave in those settings.
I want to show you an example, but before I can talk to you too much about this example I need to define a few things for you. First candles: the approach that I use with Japanese candle charts and that is what
you're looking at here, is not the standard approach. So from my perspective, I don't focus on patterns, I focus on behavior.
If we see a green candle that represents buying, that means that the closing price is higher than the open. If you see a red box that represents selling it means that the closing price is below that opening price. If you see a white line on top that's called a shadow, I think that represents selling. If you see a white
line on the bottom that represents buying. Now with that in mind, the sizes of the bodies and the shadows tell us about the degree of buying or
selling.
Now let's talk about this set-up here...
To get the rest of the tips, please visit the link below and WATCH me!
I hope you enjoyed the article and will find the videos useful,
Tom.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments, Tom.
21, July 2009
Yesterday most of the good sentiment was fed into the markets on open following the announcement of a $3 billion plan to recapitalize CIT. Sterling initially rallied against the US dollar and Japanese Yen but early gains consolidated in later trading.
Although the feel good factor is still in place the market is a little cautious and awaiting Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual review on the economy later today and also further US corporate earnings this week.
GBP/USD retreated from a high of 1.6548 to settle in the mid 1.64 area, GBP/JPY topped out at 156.4 and now sits at 154.70, GBP/EUR remains in sideways trading at 1.1570.
One reason for market consolidation and USD firming is an opinion noted by Ben Bernanke in the Wall Street Journal entitled "The Fed's Exit Strategy".
It is noted that monetary policy may need to tighten to prevent an inflation problem down the line and this led to USD strength predominantly against the higher yielders such as the USD/AUD
and USD/NZD
NZD but also against sterling. The market will focus on Bernanke's comments this afternoon to try to divulge any further clues on the future plans of the Federal Reserve.
Today aside from Ben Bernanke's review we have the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada- it is not expected that rates will be moved, however bank governor Mark Carney may comment on the recent rise on the Canadian dollar hindering economic growth. The Canadian Dollar was a big gainer yesterday as the shift to risk appetite and demand for commodities.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
20, July 2009
Really positive start to the morning and to the week as news filtered through in Asian trading that CIT received a $3 billion rescue package from a group of bond holders to stave off bankruptcy. CIT has a sizeable number of clients among fashion labels and retailers and the perception of bankruptcy was leading to negativity in the equity markets.
On the back of this news we have seen a big shift in Yen crosses and a sell off in the USD. GBP/YEN has moved up from 153.80 to 156, USD/YEN from 93.20 to 94.60. The pound has pushed up to 1.65 on the USD from 1.6350 and the euro has pushed to 1.42 against the USD.
Ultimately we are seeing a shift back into risk appetite this morning with USD and YEN weakness, strength in the commodity currencies such as the AUD, ZAR, and CAD and also a boost for the pound and the euro.
Other news out this morning which was sterling supportive came from UK Rightmove house price data which rose 0.6% for July. This data supports the sentiment that the rate of the fall in house prices is markedly slowing and a bottom may now be in place. It will be interesting to see if the equity markets continue to rally on this morning's positive kick start.
The FTSE 100 has started positively. Sterling will look to sustain a move to 1.66 against the dollar; against the euro we are still a little flat at 1.16 and a move towards 1.17 could be on the cards if the good sentiment continues.
A portion of news that could be potentially euro negative was reported by the Telegraph. The German property giant Hypo Real Estate may require at least 10 billion euros in fresh capital to stay afloat. The euro has not suffered on this news in the markets as yet as it has been largely buoyed by a weaker USD.
In other data snaps Australian second quarter PPI came in at -0.8%- the big fall was attributed to a fall in import prices as the value of the AUD has surged. In New Zealand, the June services sector index fell 1.2 points as the economy continues to struggle amid the recession.
For the week ahead key data to look out for the UK will be the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. We also will see the interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada. Tomorrow Ben Bernanke will testify on the US economy and the strength of the US dollar.
Report by Phil McHugh
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from Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 20, 2009
Since 2001 the gold market has been moving steadily upwards with those wild swings coming over the last two years. This is clearly seen on the MarketClub weekly charts with real-time prices. When you are trading or looking at gold (XAUUSDO) you need real-time prices.
We are able to zoom in and study the recent movements on the daily chart in more detail and put the Trade Triangles,Trend Lines, MACD and Fibonacci tools to work for us.
What we are seeing from the trend line is that the resistance level is at 980 while the MACD is just turning upwards and the Fibonacci tool measuring from the highs to the lows, shows a retracement of 61.8. What this translates to is that the support level is at 910 but the key level to watch this week is 946.40.
If gold breaks this key level, 946.40, this week we want to go long, in other words, buy gold.
Have a Good Trading week,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 17, 2009
Today we are looking at the relationship between the Euro and the US dollar and we can work out in which direction the market is going.
When we look back to 2001 up to today we can see that although the dollar has had some strong periods it is the euro that has made the gains from 90 cents in 2002 to the present level of 1.412.
You can see on this video of the MarketClub charts, that during the last 6 months we have had two swings in favour of the euro both with an average of 1210 pips. We are now looking at this pattern repeating itself after a short sidewise movement or energy field.
Therefore, if we are correct, we are looking at an upswing of 1210 pips towards a target zone of 1.4957. This of course is an attractive gain on the upside for the euro.
Using the MarketClub Trade Triangles we see all the indicators are positive with a reading of +100 and we believe we are seeing a traditional pivot point. With that in mind, look for the key level on a close only basis of 1,4113 in which case we could be reaching a new high at 1.600. Be sure to wath this closely.
Until next time, Good Trading!
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
17, July 2009
A cagey day in the markets yesterday as mixed data prevented any dominent trend in the currencies. Sterling struggled to make a push for 1.65 against the dollar as news that CIT would likely head to bankruptcy maintaining a cap on the bulls. In the US we saw data from Initial jobless claims and continuing claims which both came in better than anticipated The fall in initial jobless claims was attributed to seasonal factors and therefore not taken as a bullish number in the markets.
Instead the markets focused on corporate earning figures and yesterday we saw good numbers from JP Morgan, IBM and Google. This helped to stage a late rally in equities with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.1%. In the FX markets this would normally lend to selling pressure on the USD and the YEN, however we have opened this morning with the USD and YEN stronger.
In Asian trading the markets again turned nervous and the pound was dented by the YEN and the USD in particular. Feedback from the IMF focusing on the health of the UK economy did not help the pound. The IMF suggested that extra capital would be required by UK banks if the economic situation declines, in addition there was also a warning for Gordon Brown that a 'credible plan' was necessary to shore up the public finance position. The word credible denoting that political rhetoric will not wash and clear action was required.
In a damning assessment the IMF stated that "Market conditions suggest the UK has been getting the benefit of the doubt, both in the Government bond market and also the foreign exchange market." and "This benefit of the doubt is not going to last forever and it's going to be important that the Government does not test the limit of the market's confidence".
Confidence in the markets was also shaken by news of the bombings of 2 hotels in Jakarta with reports of 9 dead. This lifted the USD and YEN.
More corporate earnings today from the US will lead the sentiment in the markets. It will be interesting to see if the pound can hold on to current levels of 1.63 against the the USD as there is not much in the way of support below here for a move down to 1.61.
Report by Phil McHugh
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from Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
16, July 2009
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their June meeting and the market was a tad surprised that the changes relative to April's forecasts were mostly positive. Fed commentary in recent weeks has been mostly gloomy but the revisions to the central tendencies for official projections were all upward, for both growth and core inflation.
The information on the asset purchases programs and balance sheet was really interesting (and we should learn more next week from Bernanke). The intimation is however, that the Federal Reserve Board staff expects the Central Bank's balance sheet to peak later this year and decline gradually from then on. Given that we are currently down by about $300 billion from the peak last December, this implies that we are due a degree of expansion over the next 3-6 months via an increase in the asset buying programme.
The feel-better-factor appears directly related to the upturn in US earnings figures that are coming through. Of 42 2nd Quarter Results reports so far, 28 (66.7%) have had positive surprises and 10 (23.8%) have had negative surprises. On the calendar scheduled for release today are JPMorgan and IBM. The market will be looking for their results to emulate good reports from Goldman Sachs and Intel this week.
Yesterday China revealed perhaps another part of the reason for strong asset markets. The country's M2 surged to a new record since data avail in 1999 of 28.5%, well above expected 26.7%, compared to an average in past years around 18% and their GDP this morning was also stronger than had been anticipated. China's economy gathered momentum in the 2nd Quarter of the year thanks to a continuation of the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Annual GDP growth accelerated to 7.9%, up from the 6.1% reported for Quarter 1, making China the best-performing of all the world's major economies. This leaves the Chinese Government's full-year growth target of 8% within what appears to be easy reach.
Yesterday's UK jobs figures were, as reported during the rest of the day, horrendous. UK unemployment data rose to hit a 12 year high of 2.38 million in the three months to May, equivalent to 7.6% of the workforce. This bigger than expected jump is the largest rise we have seen since records began in 1971 and 2.4% higher than it was this time last year.
Interestingly, figures also showed a surge in young people who are out of work with those up to the age of 24 being hit particularly hard. Data revealed that the unemployment among the under 25s is spiraling to the highest level since 1993. The Office for National Statistics said claimant count unemployment rose by 23,800 in June, much less than the forecast of 40,500 and lower than May's revised 30,800 which shows the pace of decline has eased. However, economists are still predicting the number of unemployed to rise to around 3 million by the middle of 2010.
A further worrying trend is that of the above total, over 500,000 have now been out of work for longer than 12-months. Following on from the unemployment data we also had UK average earnings released yesterday. Excluding bonuses, earnings grew 2.6%, the lowest since 2001 although average earnings in the three months through to May rose 2.3% from a year earlier. Even these numbers had positive spin exerted upon them and as such, Sterling reacted not one jot.
Other important news, this time from the US, were adverse developments in the saga of CIT, the 20th largest ranked US bank by assets, and a major lender to small businesses. CNBC, citing a source close to the company reported that the company were likely to file for bankruptcy as early as tomorrow given that they are not now expecting any assistance from the Federal Reserve.
Further news on this subject would likely cause a mark down in US equities later BUT if results from IBM, Google and JP Morgan are in line with other earning's results, then the CIT news will probably be glossed over.
Report by Phil McHugh
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from Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 15, 2009
Today we are looking at the Dow Jones industrial index and the Dollar index to see where they are heading next.
The Dow (DJI) had its low in March around the 6500 level on a close only basis. It has been steadily creeping upwards until June, perhaps surprisingly, as we have not yet seen the economic benefits of the stimulus program although the markets do tend to react first in anticipation.
You can see on this video of the MarketClub charts, as we have seen before in severe bear markets, that we have had some good rallies of 30 and 40%. The important question now is "Where are we going next?"
The 3 Trade Triangles used in MarketClub indicate monthy, weekly and daily forecasts. Currently the monthly and daily are positive while the weekly Trade Triangle points down to negative territory. While we are in heading into a trading range another unique tool MarketClub subscribers have at their disposal are the Talking Charts.
These Talking Charts give a vocal technical analisys and the current advice is to exit your position and to be on the sidelines of this market at the moment. The danger area for the Dow looks to be at the 8378.50 mark and confirmation of this can be seen when using the Fibonnacci tool and observing the MACD chart also.
The Dollar index gives us nothing to get excited about either. We are able to see, in this case right back to 2001, that the market has been in decline. It looks set to stay that way because each successive high that we have seen has been progressively lower than the previous one.
When we turn on the MarketClub Trade Triangles the are all pointing down and show a -90 reading indicating lower prices. We use the monthly Trading Triangles for this market and even though there has been a rally with some short term strength from last July, the market has been going sideways recently and looks to be turning downward again.
We can confirm this again using MarketClub's unique Talking Charts, a feature which incidentally you will not find anywhere else on the internet. Making use of the Talking Charts will help you particularly if you have the facts in front of you and you are not sure what to do next.
Let's hear from you on the blog and until next time, Good Trading!
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
15, July 2009
In the current climate sentiment is changing like the drop of a hat; the swings from risk on to risk off in sentiment are directly affecting the currency markets. Yesterday for the most part we saw little volatility in the FX rates, due to the previous days risk appetite sterling was trading higher and the Yen and the USD came under pressure.
Yesterday's earnings results from Goldman Sachs were strong as anticipated but the price had already been factored in on the previous day. This led to a muted reaction on the results with shares only rising 0.2% on the news.
On the currencies USD remained stalled at 1.63 and EUR/USD a shade under 1.40. Later in the session Intel gave forecasts for the current quarter revenue which beat expectations and led to a burst of risk appetite and GBP/USD headed to 1.64 and EUR/USD
to 1.4070.
Today in the UK we see the release of key data in the form of UK jobless claims and UK unemployment for June. The unemployment number will be closely watched following the weaker GDP data that has filtered through. It is expected in lower than previous at 7.4%.
Later today we will also see industrial production data from the US which is anticipated to be a good number. If so, this will fuel the risk appetite rally and see USD targeting 1.65 again. The pound and the euro have both gained against the USD and this has kept GBP/EUR steady at 1.1650. In the light of improved data yesterday from the UK the pound was only cautiously bought into.
Report by Phil McHugh
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from Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct's head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 14, 2009
Of late we have become accustomed to sudden changes in global economic sentiment as the uncertain markets digest every sound bite of economic feedback. This pattern repeated itself yesterday as the risk averse cloud was lifted by bullish comments from analyst Meredith Whitney that banks' quarterly results may be stronger than expected.
This was unusual as this particular analyst is a well known bear and optimism from a bear is more welcomed by investors than optimism from a bull. The impact in the FX markets was directly apparent as the Yen shed its recent gains along with the USD. Looking at the Yen crosses it has weakened from 91.80 to 93 against the USD & to 152 against the pound.
The pound and the euro are also advancing against the USD, the pound gaining from 1.6050 to 1.63 and the euro testing 1.40 again.
Later today we have highly anticipated earnings data from Goldman Sachs and a good number is now anticipated which could be followed by improved earnings data from other banks and companies later this week. This should continue the move strength out of the USD and YEN.
In the UK we have had some encouraging data overnight as the latest survey from RICS (Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors) said that UK property values are set to rise in the next 3 months as a lack of homes props up prices. In addition feedback from the British Retail Consortium identified that sales rose 1.4% in the year to June.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 13, 2009
We are following a busy week on the funding / interest rate side but with not so much activity in the foreign exchange market. We had a very volatile week in the longer end UK interest rate market with activity centred around the mid-week decision from the MPC not to add to their current QE total, deferring any change in stance until after they were in possession of additional economic and inflation data. This focused attention on the UK's current QE stance and more importantly, how the authorities are preparing for its reversal/removal.
There appears to have been little produced so far by way of explaining how the process is going to work and given the UK Government's ongoing requirement for volume funding, taking additional cash out of the system looks a non-starter. This, unfortunately, implies that interest rates are going to have to rise if there is any sniff of latent inflation coming through, with a corresponding rise in mortgage rates and all against a back-drop of continued rises in Corporate failure and unemployment.
It will be interesting to see what responses are given to questions related to exit strategy by the Bank of England economist, Charles Bean, during his week long tour around the country during which he is meant to be 'selling' QE to the public in general. Expect gilts to once again have a volatile few days.
Treasuries on the other hand should be set for a bit of a breather following last week's heavy funding exercise. The next 2-weeks are devoid of additional supply and trading should be light. It does look as though prices will remain supported however given the bidder participation data produced by the Treasury Dept for the 2nd Qtr of the year which showed huge foreign demand for Treasury issues.
Also on the interest rate tack, the Riksbank, Sweden' Central bank, has followed the lead from the ECB by offering SEK 100 billion for a 12-month period at a fixed rate.
Equities ended largely softer on Friday and given the current economic outlook, appear set for another nervous week. We are now well into the US company earnings period and have several interesting reports scheduled for later this week, including several Wall St financial institutions.
Tomorrow we start with GE, Intel and Goldmans so look for volatility in equity markets globally over the next few days, especially if commodity prices (oil especially) continues its weaker trend. Oil's recent decline wasn't helped by comments from Berlusconi after G8 that suggested that they had discussed blocking oil market speculation.
Over the weekend in Japan it has become very apparent that an election is brewing. The political landscape has become increasingly paralysed over recent years and unfortunately there is little hope this will improve in the near term, no matter which party has control going forward. The opposition DPJ are poised to make an historic victory, removing the LDP from power for the first time in 50-years, but their policies are hardly any different from those of the LDP, as both have drifted back to conservative ways away from the reformist push of the Koizumi led LDP (2001/06).
One aside is that the DPJ spokesperson for Finance, Nakagawa repeated his view today that Japan should diversify FX reserves over the medium term into IMF bonds denominated in SDRs. It is unlikely that Japan would venture seriously into these murky waters but they are the largest holders of USD reserves, and potentially another voice chipping away at the previously untouchable status of the Dollar as the sole global reserve currency. For the time being, however, the FX market is in risk aversion mode, brushing aside such matters and continuing its recent love affair with the Dollar.
Better news for New Zealand this morning with the retail sales figure for May rising much stronger than had been anticipated. Opinion has it however that this rise reflects a reversal of the sharp consumer cut-backs seen over the past 18-months rather than a positive sign of things moving ahead. Commodity currencies remain under pressure in line with the sell of in the underlying commodities themselves.
Another indicator this morning of the predicament besetting global economies was the statement from the Russian economy ministry which estimated that Russian GDP had fallen 10.2% in the 1st half of 2009, with industrial production over the same period falling by 14.9%. The Rouble dropped sharply as a result.
We are in for a quiet day today data-wise with nothing substantial until the release of the monthly US Treasury budget report for July at 7.00pm this evening. There is an ECB central banking seminar today but given its proximity to the recent G8 get together, this is unlikely to throw up anything new.
Tom Nadir
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 13, 2009
When you hear the news reporters talk about the price of crude oil in the marketplace, they're generally talking about WTI, which is West Texas Intermediate crude oil. It's a very light, sweet crude oil and the highest grade that's out there.
Crude oil is based on and priced on the amount of sulfur that's in the oil. It makes it easier or harder to refine base on the amount of sulfur. WTI being the lightest and sweetest, is the highest priced crude oil in the marketplace.
It is a benchmark delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma.
In benchmarks for crude oil and global pricing of crude oil, WTI probably prices about 50% of the global pricing of crude oil. Brent being basically the other pricing benchmark. There's two out there, Brent being a little of a mixture of three different grades of crude oil; BF&O, Brent 40 and Ossenberg. They're all produced in the North Sea.
Good Trading
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 11, 2009
Who wants a little homework for the weekend? OK, OK, I know its the weekend but these 3 videos are worth a few minutes of your time if you are serious about your online trading.
First up is a study of the US dollar against the strong Aussie dollar. The US dollar has been falling since May but it now looks like it is going to improve that position now, in the short time at least.
This next forex trading video looks at the USD and Japanese Yen where we are looking for USD to hit a low of 88 Yen to the dollar. Armed with this knowledge we can watch the market and be ready to strike.
Lastly let's turn our attention to stocks. In general stock trading we are looking at the monthly charts for trend and the weekly charts for timing. You can improve your ETF trading with this short video presentation.
Best wishes and
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 10, 2009
The Bank of England surprised the markets by keeping the Quantitative Easing programme at 125 billion pounds, as expected interest rates were kept at 0.5%. This was a big shock to the markets which had sold sterling in the run up to the announcement with the expectation that a further 25 billion pounds would be injected.
For sterling we saw a knee jerk reaction to the news, moving higher against the USD and the euro. This puts sterling back into its comfort zone against the USD and euro and we should hold the 1.15-1.185 and 1.62-1.66 range in the short term. The move in sterling was not wholly significant due to the door being left open for a review on QE in the August BoE meeting. In addition recent weak economic data for the UK in the form of Industrial output and GDP is still weighing on the pound.
The pound is also up against the euro this morning, helped by the QE news but also due to increasing worries over Eastern Europe. Reports are that the IMF are discussing aid programmes with at least 10 Eastern European governments. GBP/EUR now approaching 1.17 and EUR/USD has retraced from 1.4025 to 1.3915 currently.
Yesterday the German finance minister also stated that Germanys regional state banks are the "biggest systemic risk" to the nations' financial sector. We have 'ouched upon these concerns previously and so far the euro has been relatively unscathed, but this cannot last forever. Heightened concerns and added stimulus in this area should weigh heavily on the euro going forward.
US equities rose slightly yesterday as weekly jobless claims fell 52,000 to 565,000 and in addition Alcoa Inc kicked off the earnings season with better than expected numbers. This leaves the markets in a confused state as traders do not know which way to turn between recovery, risk aversion, buy USD or sell USD. This is hardy surprising given the mixed economic data materializing globally.
In the currency markets the confusion and volatility is very clear, this week the main theme has been the sell of commodity driven currencies with AUD, NZD and ZAR all lower and the YEN is the main gainer.
The Washington Post has reported that AIG is preparing to pay millions of dollars in bonuses to top executives, this following an earlier round of bonuses four months ago. Got an inkling this is not going to sit well with public opinion.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 9, 2009
Crude oil has been feeling the heat lately so let us see what is happening.
In this 3 minute video you will see that we can easily forecast where the price will fall to before finding support and making a recovery.
Over the past eight days we have seen the price fall from $73 a barrel and we are expecting a low of 59-59.51. The pattern is a typical double top with a pivot point from which we can measure the expected low.
Furthermore, using a combination of the MACD which has crossed over showing a negative, our Trade Triangles which only show positive in the monthly forcast and the Fibonacci tool, this prediction is confirmed.
So we are expecting crude to find support and turn around into positive territory at the 59-59.51 mark.
Let's see what happens.
Let's hear from you on the blog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 9, 2009
Yesterday sterling remained under pressure for the trading day as the prospect of increasing the QE programme was priced into sterling. As is common on interest rate decisions, the speculation beforehand will move the value of the currency before the actual announcement.
Sterling clung to its current trading range against the USD and the Euro but only just; in afternoon trading we briefly saw a test of the 1.60 level against the USD before sterling managed to fight its way back to 1.61; against the euro it dipped to 1.1550 but did not threaten the 1.15 level. This morning sterling has hopped up against the USD so a good start to the day for sterling but it is not out of the woods yet.
Later today the Bank of England are set to confirm the increase in QE but it will be the accompanying statement that will be key. The risk for sterling is if the door is left open for further expansion of the QE programme going forward. We will find out this afternoon!
The Yen has been very active against most major currencies this week advancing strongly against the USD and the pound. Currently we sit just over 150 on GBP/YEN and 93.33 on USD/YEN. The pull back into Yen is not surprisingly attributed to fading optimism on an economic recovery and a move out of risky assets in line with this sentiment. The Japanese authorities unsurprisingly expressed concerns over the undesireable strength of the YEN; a bit of verbal intervention.
The move out of risk is clear when looking at the CRB index which is a broad index of commodity prices; the CRB is down more than 12% from last month pushing below its 200 day moving average. This is a clear signal that the recent rebound is over. This also highlights a swing back into deflationary pressure due to falling prices and stalling economic activity This will alarm central banks and could be a factor for the Bank Of England this afternoon to leave the door open for more QE.
Data from Australia confirmed that June unempoloyment came in marginally better than expected at 5.8% against a forecast of 5.9%. Not a key stat but a hint of good news amid the gloom. The G8 statement offered no mention on currency. Comments affirmed that the recession is the steepest since World War II and too fragile still to consider looking at exit strategies for stimuls measures.
President Obama actually pressed for the door to be left open for further stimulus measures. Gordon Brown said "the G-8 needed to sound as second wakeup call for the world economy", the concern of a relapse is a strong theme from the G8.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 8, 2009
The riots in Urumqi have led to the Chinese President, Hu Jintao returning home and missing the G8 conference according to reports. For the FX markets this will greatly reduce the possibility of discussing a change in reserve currency from the USD and therefore we should not have any surprises for the FX markets.
Gordon Brown backed up this consensus by saying there has been lots of speculation but no discussion on the USD being replaced as the global reserve currency. In the markets we have continued on the cautious theme, Asian stocks were driven lower by falling oil and commodity prices. This is adding further strength to the USD and the YEN as you would expect.
Sterling is still on the ropes ahead of the Bank of England decision tomorrow; as you may have noticed recently the market sentiment can shift like the wind and this uncertainty is causing a lack of direction and volatility in the FX markets. Against the USD we are fast approaching the crucial 1.60 level and we are down towards 150 against the YEN, in addition we have fallen to 1.1560 on the Euro.
The markets and Wall Street has also been spooked as talk of a second government stimulus plan in the US is spiraling. This has heightened fears that the economy is not yet on the path to recovery and that corporate earnings due this week will be weaker than expected. More stimulus basically equals uncertainty and a lack of confidence from the government that enough has not been done already. This naturally transpires to a lack of investor confidence.
A similar feeling exists in the UK and this is exactly the reason why it is very likely that the Bank of England will increase the QE programme by 25 billion pounds tomorrow to 150 billion pounds.
Data out in the markets shows that French business sentiment came in as expected at 84; this is slightly higher than the 81 figure for May. The Bank of France also sees GDP for the second quarter at -0.4% against a previous forecast of -0.5%.
Swiss June unemployment came in at 3.6%, worse than the forecast 3.4% and continues the theme of rising unemployment pretty much everywhere. Halifax house prices for the UK came in at -0.5% which was as forecast but less flattering than the market hoped for. Other data to come today will be Euro zone (European Monetary Union) GDP which is expected in at -2.5% which is the same as last month.
Look out for more intervention by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) as Euro/Swiss Franc is approaching the 1.50 level. Can they continue this pattern of intervention and if they do not and the market falls below 1.50 where will it end up? - Definitely one to watch.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 8, 2009
Today, let us have a look at the Dow industrial index in this short video.
From the lows in March to the high in June we have seen the Dow pushing steadily upward but now we have downward pressure losing about 100 points. As you know with a bear market, prices will fall on their own as opposed to a bull market where we constantly need positive news to drive prices up.
Currently we are trading around the 8,241 mark and the perception is pointing towards a larger downturn for the Dow. This is also indicated on the MACD charts and the smart money is probably already out of this market. If we close below the 8,241 today or tommorrow then be prepared for further retracement.
Let's hear from you on the blog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 7, 2009
The Euro Dollar relationship over the last little while has interesting aspects meeting resistance around the 1.41 level.
The monthly (long term position) and the daily (trend) Trade Triangles are positive whereas the daily triangle (used for timing) is in conflict. In such a situation it is advisable to remain neutral in the market. Overall, we notice a "Double Bottom" and classic pivot point and we are looking to break the 1.45 mark.
Please, if you are risk adverse then this may not be for you but otherwise I recommend you take a look at this short video right now.
My regular readers will know that the video is free to watch and there is no need to register
Let's hear from you on the blog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 7, 2009
Very quiet in the FX markets yesterday and the USD and the YEN continued to remain firm across the market. The lack of movement in the markets and the support of the USD and YEN can be attributed to a weak assessment by the European policy makers.
ECB president Trichet was very prudent during the latest Financial Stability Review and his tone had a whiff of fear on a further credit crunch within the banking sector.
This concern has been heightened through an article in the Telegraph highlighting dire conditions in the Balkan states, in particular Latvia and Bulgaria. Both nations had their currency pegged to the euro with very negative results as GDP is dropping sharply. Unemployment is increasing and fiscal deficits are rising.
The concern is that this could spill over to lending nations such as Greece, Hungary and Italy. The Balkan headache is still thumping and going forward, could realize significant downward pressure on the euro. No direct effect on the markets as yet but definitely an area to watch.
The Bank of England is still on course this week to ask the government to increase the QE programme. The uncertainty of a recovery is obviously leading the MPC on the train of thought that too much too soon is a better prospect than too little too late.
In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged at 3% adding that economic conditions are better than expected. The AUD is a touch higher on the news.
For the UK this morning we have the release of UK industrial production for May, this is expected at +0.2 month on month. Sterling is looking for a good number to hold its current trading position against the majors.
Yesterday the pound managed to claw back slightly against the euro and remained flat against the USD but still sits in a precarious position ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 6, 2009
With Friday being a US holiday it was expected that we would see some volatility within the trading ranges. In UK trading we did not see a jot as the markets remained relatively quiet ahead of the weekend.
The situation changed in Asian trading as risk aversion was ratcheted up a couple of notches due to a few contributing factors. Firstly the hangover of the payroll data on Thursday was still apparent and undermined any move into risky assets.
In addition the civil unrest in China did not help. Here violence in the western region of Xinjiang has left at least 140 people dead and more than 800 people injured helping the case for risk aversion. We also have jitters ahead of the Obama-Medvedev meeting in Moscow on the reduction of nuclear warheads.
The US Dollar has made gains especially against sterling where it has moved below the crucial support of 1.62 to 1.6140 currently, this is a break lower in the recent trading range. Sterling has not been helped with news that the Bank Of England's monetary policy committee is expected to extend its programme of quantitative easing by 25 billion pounds this week. This is sterling negative, especially given the fact the Europe have not committed to extend their programme on QE. If the extension does proceed it is likely that this will be the last expansion of the QE programme by the Bank of England.
Not a great deal in terms of data today. We have Euro zone sentix investor confidence which is expected slightly better at -25 from previous -27. This stat underlines investor confidence towards the euro zone economy.
Watch out for sterling today as technically and fundamentally it is on the ropes. This is very apparent against the Japanese Yen
where the rate has slumped to 153 from 159 at the end of last week. Against the USD
the 1.60 level could now come under pressure and 1.15 against the euro, therefore this week is a big week for sterling to underline and consolidate its recent gains. If it breaks below the key levels mentioned it could be a case of mind the gap as we look then towards 1.55 and 1.10 again.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 3, 2009
This continues to fuel concerns on economic recovery and contributed to a broad sell off in the equities market with the Dow off 2%, the S&P 2.3% and the Nasdaq down 2.3% also. The dollar surprisingly did not gain on the news.
The swing towards risk aversion benefited the Japanese Yen to a greater degree. The jobs data serves another cold dose of reality for the markets and indicates the recovery road could be slow and bumpy. We have a US holiday today for Independence Day and the market will now focus on the US earnings period kicking off on Wednesday next week. However be careful of thin trading causing extra volatility within the current dollar trading ranges of 1.62-1.66 against sterling and 1.38- 1.42 on EUR/USD
Today we have eurozone retail sales, in April we saw the first increase for seven months with the Easter holiday and good weather helping the number. The consensus is for a slight decline for May. There was no change as expected in interest rates for the European central Bank. In the statement following the decision ECB president Trichet urged the banks to live up to their responsibilities and improve their capital base by taking advantage of government measures to re-capitalise.
He added that economic activity is likely to remain weak although the pace of decline will be less than the first quarter of this year. The ECB is not planning any new monetary policy initiatives.The Euro lost a little ground after the decision against sterling and the USD but nothing to get excited about.
Finally some good news for Ireland as June services PMI rose to 42.3 from 39.5 in May. The number is still below 50 which indicates contraction but the improvement will be well received.
Expect choppy and thin trading today with no real direction. we have already seen a dip in sterling from open across the board.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 2, 2009
Sterling lost more ground against the EUR and the USD yesterday as the repercussions of the lower GDP number continued to weigh it down. The euro was lifted following news from the OECD stating that there is no risk of deflation for the euro zone and a report from Reuters that the Chinese had asked for a new reserve currency to be discussed at the G8 next week.
EUR/USD
pushed up to 1.42 before selling by the Bank of International Settlements and Russia eased it back to 1.41. The euro gained further against sterling forcing it back towards 1.16 and the lows of the current trading range.
Data from the UK yesterday was actually slightly better than expected with manufacturing activity shrinking at its slowest pace for a year. Although this raised hopes that GDP data will improve later in the year it was not significant to stop the slip in sterling.
Today the main focus will be on payroll data from the US out at 13:30 GMT. Non-farm payroll data is the most important data point for all financial markets and is released normally on the first Friday of each month (this month Thursday due to Independence day holiday tomorrow).
Reaction to the data can cause huge volatility in the FX markets led by the USD as sentiment and expectation are measured in real time. A good number is US dollar positive and a weak number USD negative in normal markets. However at the moment in the current economic climate a good number will add to the risk appetite bandwagon and could lead to a sell off in the USD on improved sentiment.
The number for June is expected around -365k and unemployment is expected a touch higher at 9.6% from 9.4% previously. If we see a 10-20% deviation from the expected, then hang on to your hats.
Also today we have the monthly European Central Bank meeting from the ECB. Rates are expected to be kept on hold at 1% but it will be the statement following that could affect the FX markets with any talk of additional QE measures (unlikely) moving the euro.
A big mover in the markets yesterday was the Polish Zloty
which advanced to its highest level in six weeks against the euro. Poland has lined up a World Bank loan of $4.5 billion and the pace of manufacturing shrank so a double win for the currency yesterday.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
July 2nd 2009
The S&P index for July is showing signs of weakening. During March and April and again in May in June we saw
a braod trading range.
Currently our monthly Trade Triangles are showing an upward trend but our weekly Trade Triangles are
pointing down. This indicates a neutral market and traders should be on the sidelines at this time.
When we apply the Fibonacci tool it is pointing to a short position at around the 810 mark while the 880
mark is the key level to watch. We will be putting our stops at 783.32.
Additionally the MACD is pointing down so watch this market right now and be ready to act at the 810 mark.
Take a look at this video for a
clearer picture of the S&P July update.
I hope you find the video informative, educational and profitable.
My regular readers will know that the video is free to watch and there is no need to register.
Let's hear from you on our blog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free
educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
July 1, 2009
Well yesterday certainly started well for sterling as it crashed through 1.66 against the USD and pushed over 1.18 against the euro.
Unfortunately, as has been the trend for sterling this did not last; in fact the rally was reversing ahead of the UK GDP data for the first quarter. The release of the data only catalysed the reversal. GDP came in at -2.4% which is the sharpest decline for over 50 years bringing in the annual fall to 4.9%.
Naturally the gloom merchants jumped on this news as a snappy headline against the backdrop of recent greenshoots. The implication for sterling was to pull it back into the range bound trading ranges that we have been seeing over the last two weeks of 1.62-1.66 against the USD and 1.15-1.1800 on the euro.
Going forward the continually contracting GDP data is obviously a concern but in my eyes expected; however as unemployement numbers normally lag behing GDP data then we should see unemployment rising more sharply than expected. The GDP data also highlights a move away from current forecasts for the UK economy, especially by the chancellor who expects growth of 1.25% next year.
The weak data for the UK helped the USD in particular in morning trading as the rate retraced from 1.675 to 1.66 by later morning. US consumer confidence data dropped to 49.3 in June from 54.8 in May- a bad number which exasperated a move into risk aversion started by weak UK GDP data. This led to further USD gains as Wall Street dipped on a sombre note and pushed cable down to 1.64. GBP/EUR
also fell below 1.17 helped by better than expected German unemployment data.
The Japanese Yen came inder pressure even in the light of a move into risk aversion, losing ground against the euro and the USD. Overnight the Tankan manufacturing survey rose but to a lesser extent than expected. USD/YEN
pushed to 97.00 from 95.00 levels with large US buyers noted. In other news China's manufacturing expanded for the fourth month in a row with PMI rising to 53.2 from 53.1 in May.
Look out for UK PMI data this morning at 9:30. It is likely to come in unchanged but another weak number following the GDP data could lead to a further slide for the pound to the lower end of the ranges.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 30th 2009
In the middle of May we looked at Apple and RIMM. Today we are reviewing that situation.
Adam Hewison, who produces these videos, shows clearly, precicely and clearly what has happened in the last six weeks or so.
Apple, Inc
and RIMM , Research in Motion, Ltd are BIG market players.
This is how we keep an eagle eye on this market and you will also see how the strategy of "pair trading" or "trading pairs." works in real time.
What trading pairs means is that you buy one market while going short the other market in the same sector. Now Apple
and RIMM are battling it out in the smart phone sector. We are waiting on the sidelines to see who gets the upperhand and that is to our advantage. Right now it looks as though Apple may have the upper hand based on its very successful "APP" store.
Trading pairs is what many professionals do when they are unsure as to the direction of the general market but feel pretty comfortable in their analysis of the relationship between two stocks.
I hope you find the video informative, educational and profitable.
My regular reader will know that the video is free to watch and there is no need to register ;-)
Let's hear from you on our blog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
June 30, 2009
Late trading yesterday on Wall Street and in Asian equities pushed up commodities; crude oil moved up 3.4%, copper and Gold also gained. This reflected increased risk sentiment in the markets. This led to the usual swings in the markets with the USD and Yen broadly sold.
EUR/USD pushed back up to 1.41, GBP/USD pushed over the 1.66 resistance level to a high of 1.6743 and GBP/EUR pushed through 1.18 to a high of 1.1850.
Sterling is also being underpinned by healthy data out overnight and this morning. UK Gfk consumer confidence data came in at -25, this is the highest reading in 15 months. In addition UK nationwide house price data was penned at +0.9% month on month. The house price data was a nice surprise for sterling as the market was expecting a drop of 0.5% following the 0.4% drop in May.
Naturally the report is still noting caution on the data but it does add to the sentiment that we are seeing a bottoming out in house price falls. Expect a little caution on sterling ahead of the GDP data at 09:30, if we see a good number here we could test further on the upside against the EUR and USD.
Look out for data from the US later in the form of consumer confidence and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, again if we see good data this should help the risk appetitie sentiment and fuel further sellling of USD.
We also have the Tankan survey from the Bank Of Japan later tonight which highlights forecasts for growth in the manufacturing sector, this is released against the backdrop of the jobless rate in Japan posting a 5 year high. An improvement is expeceted but given the weak jobless data and improved sentiment we could see the Yen weakne further along with the USD.
Yesterday Bernard Madoff the disgraced financier was jailed for 150 years for orchestrating the $65 bn fraud. The heavy sentence is a little pointless given that he is 71 years old, however it does reflect the severity of the crime and certainly sends a message to would be fraudsters...
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 29, 2009
No major shifts in the markets as we maintain range trading across the board. Sterling has remained firm against the USD and has pushed up against the euro to 1.1780. Surprising really as an article in the Telegraph noted that Britain's national debt will quadruple according to Standard & Poors.
That is unless drastic steps are taken. The ratings agency is predicting that public sector debt could hit post war levels of 200pc of economic output. This will turn huge attention to election pledges for the next parliamentary term. Although rhetoric will not suffice and these pledges will need to be followed with hard action to maintain the AAA rating.
The USD is caught in no mans land as sentiment is helping the USD weaken and at the same time further comments from China that there will be no sudden change in China's reserve policy helped it firm. This was more noticeable against the Euro and the USD worked back from the 1.41 level to 1.40.
Some very interesting stances on the USD in relation to forecasts are developing. It seems there is a real divide between USD strength and further weakness. The dollar bulls are looking at the US dollar to gain as a safe haven on a prolonged slowdown and if the economy turns the corner the US will be ahead of the curve and that will lead to USD strength.
The dollar bears fear that suggested growth in the US is unfounded and high debt and low consumption will weaken the USD. Also in this scenario a lack of confidence for the USD as a safe haven will no doubt heighten.
The bulls are looking for EUR/USD to close the year at 1.50 and the bears 1.20 on EUR/USD.
Data released from Japan showed that industrial output increased by 5.9% in May compared to April; a good number which is the third rise in a row for Japan but still 30% lower than the previous year and there is a fear that this momentum could slip in the coming months.
Looking at the week ahead for the UK we have Gfk consumer confidence overnight and Nationwide house price data tomorrow morning followed by UK GDP for the first quarter. Other important data releases will focus on the ECB interest rate meeting on Thursday and unemployment data for the euro zone.
For the US we have later in the week average hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. I feel the markets will maintain their range trading for the week ahead with sterling struggling to forge a move higher and market uncertainty keeping the USD from pushing over 1.66 against the pound and 1.41 on the euro.
In other news Bernard Madoff will learn his fate today following his shocking "ponzi" scheme which amounted to the world's biggest financial fraud (that we know of) of $65 bn. He is arguing for a 12 year sentence, however his victims are pushing for 100 yeas ...or possibly a bit more (Ed)
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 26, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income
Personal Income (expected +0.2%; previous +0.5%)
Personal Spending (expected +0.3%; previous -0.1%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +1.9%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +0.4%)
9:55 AM ET. June Reuters/Univ Of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 69; previous 68.7)
Sentiment Index Mid Month (previous 69)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 69.4)
Expectations Index Mid Month (previous 65.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 67.7)
Value (Current Period) Mid Month (previous 74.5)
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THE STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100
was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Nevertheless, stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1516.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1412.00 would renew this month's decline. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1476.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1516.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1450.97. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1412.00. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.75 pts. at 1469.00 as of 5:52 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 26, 2009
Late afternoon and overnight the USD weakened across the markets as data came in better than expected.
The US economy shrank at an annualised rate of 5.5% in the first quarter of 2009. This was better than the expected contraction of a 5.7% decline. The data raises hopes that the economy has reached a bottom and that Q2 data will show further improvement in GDP.
The USD was initially performing strongly in trading yesterday as news that initial jobless claims had risen unexpectedly by 15,000 last week. This led to sentiment to lean towards caution especially given the Feds lack of clarity on future moves in their policy meeting. During the afternoon the USD experienced a sustained sell off against the majors with GBPUSD pushing up from technical support at 1.6250 to a high of 1.6499 in early trading.
EUR/USD
has also again pushed through the 1.40 level to sit at 1.4045 currently. US equities jumped higher with the S&P 500 up 2.1%, this carried through to Asia with the Nikkei climbing 2.2%.
The gain in equities mirroring the improved sentiment following the GDP data.
Another reason for USD weakness can be attributed to the view that interest rates in the US will remain low for a considerable time- there was an expectation for a rate hike in early 2010 but the recent comments from the Fed suggest not. Looking at interest rates the early view on major economies is that a hike will be seen first by the Reserve Bank of Australia and then by the Bank of England- yield remains a key driver for currencies and the AUD and the pound could gain if this view permeates to the markets.
The economy in New Zealand continues to disappoint with GDP data coming in at -2.7% against expectations of -2.3%. This is now the fifth consecutive quarter of contraction for the economy and demonstrates the theme of an export driven economy experiencing more pain in the global slowdown.
The same story can be said of Germany. In fact the German finance minister Peer Steinbruck told the BBC that Germany must reduce its dependence on foreign trade. The problem is twofold for Germany and New Zealand in that the fall in demand has been coupled with a significant strengthening of the currency which further dampens the demand.
We expect another volatile day in the markets as sterling targets the technical high of 1.66 on the USD and the EUR aims to breach 1.41.
Same theme elsewhere in the fact that the AUD,
ZAR,and NZD
have firmed up on the increased appetite.
Keep an eye on the Swiss Franc as further intervention could occur if the CHF starts to strengthen against the USD or the EUR.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 25th 2009
This short video examines the internal workings of the S&P 500 index. This update uses the internal forces of the market to time new positions. It uses the free technical tools available in MarketClub to help time a position.
You will see three of tools we have at our disposal in use here. The first and most important tool used in this example is the Fibonacci retracement tool which works so well for this example.
Next is the Welles Wilder parabolic SAR. This tool is very useful for confirming entry and exit points when combined with our Fibonacci retracement tool.
Lastly, the MACD is used as a check on the other tools and is in agreement. This tool can help in timing the entry point using an intra-date chart.
The video is free to watch and there is no need to register.
Watch, listen, learn and enjoy this the video.
Now go to it,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
June 25th 2009
You will remember we saw Adam Hewison analyze 13 forex cross-rates in less than 11 minutes last week. Let's have a look at how they worked out.
As it turned out it wasn't too shabby but it could have been better. Of the 13, 5 turned out to be good ones. That is the trade triangle technology was pointing us in the right direction.
What this means is that both our daily and weekly Trade Triangles were in alignment indicating the direction for that particular cross.
Lets recap. We looked at the following cross rates on June 18th, 2009. The first number you see below is what that cross rate was trading at when we made the video last week:
USA/CAD was trading at 11335. Trade Triangles said to be long USD short CAD
Now trading at 11490, that's a profit of 155 pips.
USA/NZD was trading at 5642. Trade Triangles said to be short USD long NZD
Now trading at 5533 this is a profit of 109 pips.
CAD/CHF was trading at 9578. Trade Triangles said to be short CAD long CHF
Now trading at 9531 this is a profit of 47 pips.
USDCHF was trading at 10869. Trade Triangles said to be short USD long CHF
Now trading at 10952 for a loss of 83 pips.
Dollar Index play from 8034 when I made the video and is currently trading at 8023 for a gain of 11 pips.
Out of the five markets that showed the correct Trade Triangle configuration, 4 are profitable and 1 was showing a loss as of this writing.
Total Gain: 322 pips
Total Net: 239 pips
5 trades, 4 wins, 1 loss
3.87 pips gained for every pip lost
Now remember, this was all done in just 11 minutes and we analyzed 13 cross rates. It will always be like this and you will not always have this percentage of winners. However, if you trade using this Trade Triangle technology and are disciplined, diversified and follow the program, you will be a winner over time.
What I really like about these videos they are all done in real time.
Now you have seen it in action and know how to analyze the Forex markets really quickly and still come out as top dog!
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
This impressive video reveals:
An entirely new perspective on your trading in volatile markets like these (and why you should be paying attention)
While the "herd" got slaughtered last year, how the smart and savvy investors made out like "bandits" using options.
Undeniable proof that Ron Ianieri and Options University have been calling this market meltdown for well over a year and showing their students how to profit using options.
Important new reasons why now is the best time to be learning options and using them not only to protect against losses but also to get "back in the black" much faster than with stocks alone.
And most importantly, how to get a personal copy of the $1,997 training course on options (their Flagship Product) totally without charge and another $970 in complimentary bonuses and monthly "continuing education" training.
There is also a webinar tonight , 9pm Thursday 25 June so join me there if you possible can, I look forward to meeting you.
To your successful trading,
Book your 9pm (EST) webinar place NOW.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 25, 2009
8:30 AM ET. June 20 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 605K; previous 608K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -3K; previous +3K)
Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 6687000)
Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous 148000)
8:30 AM ET. 1 Quarter GDP, final
GDP (previous -5.7%)
GDP 2nd Est. (previous -5.7%)
Chain-Weighted Price Index 2nd Est. (previous +2.8%)
Chain-Weighted Price Index (previous +2.8%)
Corporate Profits 2nd Est. (previous +12.9%)
PCE Price Index 2nd Est. (previous -1%)
Purchase Price Index 2nd Est. (previous -1%)
Real Final Sales 2nd Est. (previous -3.4%)
10:00 AM ET. June 13 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer (previous -0.9%)
10:00 AM ET. Fed Chmn. Bernanke testifies before House Committee on
Merrill Lynch acquisition by Bank Of America in Washington
10:30 AM ET. June 12 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2557)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +114)
11:00 AM ET. May Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (previous 3)
4:30 PM ET. June 15 Money Supply
4:30 PM ET. June 24 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 36.6B)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 36.18B)
Primary Dealer Borrowings (previous 0B)
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 0B)
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 122.97B)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 123.74B)
4:30 PM ET. June 17 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.75T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 806.84B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 1.95T)
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THE STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's gains. Nevertheless, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1465.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1399.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1465.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1516.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1412.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 1399.87. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 2.50 pts. at 1444.75 as of 6:07 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 Index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 874.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 907.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 884.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 874.00. The September S&P 500 Index was down 0.60 pts. at 897.60 as of 6:09 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 25, 2009
Lots to talk about on yesterday's trading day. Early in the trading day the OECD (organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) provided an upbeat assessment for the economy. The think tank pointed to a recovery albeit fragile in the OECD area for 2010.
For Britain it was not wholly optimistic, forecasting that the economy will contract by 4.3% in 2009 and stagnate in 2010. This goes against the grain of government forecasts of growth in 2010. It forecast that UK public debt will rise to 14% of GDP and this would prevent further stimulus action if required. GDP forecasts for other major economies show contractions of 2.8% in the US, 6.8% in Japan and 4.8% in the eurozone.
Sterling is a little weaker this morning against the USD and the Euro. Dissidence between Mervyn King and the government on fiscal policy is not helping sterling's cause. Mr King was stated that the "scale of the deficit is truly extraordinary" and he criticized the lack of a long term plan of fiscal policy which has essentially undermined the governments actions to date.
The buzz words now are long term and sustainable as the bottom is perceived in major economies; attention will turn to sustainable recovery and planned action for public debt against the previous reactive measures introduced in the face of the sharp downturn. Sterling should improve with improving economic conditions and economic confidence but steps must be taken now to reduce the UK deficit or the UK economy could suffer a relapse.
Spencer Dale recently noted that the weak pound was helpful to economic conditions in the UK, the market took the view that he was talking down the pound following recent gains. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) went one step further. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) which traders said were acting on behalf of the SNB, sold the franc against the euro and the dollar.
The SNB declined to comment on the intervention which led to the franc weakening sharply across the markets- this also firmed up the euro and the USD.
Yesterday saw unprecedented liquidity funding from the ECB to lend at 1% for 1-year refinancing- this attracted 1120 banks in return for approximately $500 billion. The key question for the euro is how much of this funding will be converted to other currencies and when- this could weaken the euro over the next few sessions.
Finally we saw the recent Fed meeting last night; no huge surprises here. Their assessment was moderately upbeat confirming that the pace of contraction was slowing. The FOMC underlined however that rates will be kept low for some time. The dollar gained in the run up and following the release making all the ground lost earlier in the day against sterling. This highlights the uncertainty in the markets especially surrounding key data snaps.
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
7:00 AM ET. June 19 Mortgage Applications
Market Composite Index (previous 514.4)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -15.8%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 261.2)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -3.5%)
Refinance Index (previous 1998.1)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -23.3%)
8:30 AM ET. May Durable Goods
Total Orders (expected -0.8%; previous +1.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +1%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. May New Home Sales
Overall Sales (expected 360K; previous 352K)
Percent Change (expected +2.3%; previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. June 19 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 357.72M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.3M; previous -3.87M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 205.03M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1M; previous +3.39M)
Distillate Stocks (previous 150.03M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +600K; previous +308K)
Refinery Usage (expected 86%; previous 85.9%)
N/A Two-Day FOMC meeting continues; interest rate decision
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THE STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1399.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1452.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1463.37. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1412.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 1399.87. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 5.75 pts. at 1429.75 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 Index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 874.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 911.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 884.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 874.00. The September S&P 500 Index was up 3.60 pts. at 893.80 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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June 24, 2009
Yesterday started quietly enough as the markets consolidated the previous days volatility following the downgrading of global growth by the World Bank. That was until the Euro rocketed up against the USD and sterling. Surprising really considering the recent scent of unrest with European banks and ongoing questions on the debt concerns in Germany.
The Euro picked up from 1.38 through the 1.40 level and sterling dropped to 1.1630 against the euro. So why the euro strength? The dollar should have been well positioned following the affirmation of its AAA rating and the recent swing to risk aversion.
The euros gains could be attributed to comments from Weber that the ECB do not plan to expand their QE programme or there could have been a shift to the euro ahead of the ECB's first auction on their QE programme for 1-year funding at 1%. However the reason attributed in trading circles is simply down to a large order being filled and huge demand arising from a US investment bank and then overnight in Asia.
Looking at the markets this morning sterling has made good gains against the USD and recovered some ground on the euro. The lack of further equity losses being broadly sterling positive. Tonight we have the monthly meeting on interest rates in the US, the FOMC are not expected to move interest rates but they will comment on their QE measures introduced.
The USD is on the backfoot as the market does not feel that the Fed can allay concerns over the QE programme. In addition the Fed will probably re-assert its position on keeping interest rates low for some time to come- again this is USD negative.
Data today already released from the OECD (Organization For Economic Co-operation and Development) says the economic outlook has improved for the first time in 2 years. Good news but the report also noted that soaring unemployment and ballooning deficits could knock the recovery off its track.
Looks like its going to be another volatile day today with a weaker USD driving movements. Looks like its going to be another volatile day today with a weaker USD driving movements. Commodity currencies remain under pressure following Tuesdays sell-off with AUD,
NZD CAD ZAR looking fragile. I would expect to see broad USD weakness today against the major currencies ahead of the FOMC meeting
Report by Phil McHugh
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
7:45 AM ET. June 2 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous -0.6%)
Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous -1.5%)
8:55 AM ET. June 2 Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous -4.5%)
12MonChgPct (previous -4.6%)
52WkChgPct (previous -4.8%)
10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Survey
Manufacturing Index (previous 4)
Retail Revenues Index (previous 13)
Services Revenue Index (previous 29)
Shipments Index (previous 9)
10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales
Total Sales (expected 4.8M; previous 4.68M)
Percent Change (expected +2.6%; previous +2.9%)
4:30 PM ET. June 1 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.26M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.14M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +881K)
Refinery Runs (previous 83.3%)
5:00 PM ET. June 2 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous 49)
N/A Two-Day FOMC meeting begins; interest rate decision expected around 2:15 p.m. EDT Wed.
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THE STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1399.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1462.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1517.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1421.25. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 1399.87. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pts. at 1431.50 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 874.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 915.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 920.16. First support is the overnight low crossing at 886.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 874.00. The September S&P 500 Index was up 5.00 pts. at 893.60 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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June 23, 2009
Yesterday the World Bank predicted that the global economy will contract 2.9% this year compared to their previous forecast of a 1.7% decline.
This caused a seismic shift in the markets as the wave of risk driven rallies crashed and petered out as concerns that recent "green shoots" will not be sustainable.
The effects in the markets were significant; equities were driven lower, the S&P down 3%, Nikkei
down 2.8% and the Dow falling over 2%. Oil and Commodities tumbled as investors jumped into safer harbours. Oil fell 4%, Copper over 5% and Gold
hit its lowest level since mid-May.
In the currencies the moves were very apparent. We saw the AUD
unwind significantly against the USD
and the CAD
also offloaded recent gains retreating to over 1.15 against the USD.
So the big losers were the commodity driven currencies and the main gainers being the "safe haven" currencies namely the USD and Japanese Yen.
So did the market get ahead of itself?
It is hardly surprising that we have hit a barrier in the drive for recovery. It would be naIve to think that we would see a "V" shaped global recovery and in fact that we could even predict a recovery in such uncertain and unchartered conditions.
The mood was not helped by the fears of banking issues in the Eurozone and concerns over German debt. Look out for the ECB's first auction of one-year funding tomorrow, As the auction is open to foreign banks along with European banks this could lead to funds moving out of euros into other currencies.
The USD was also boosted as a safe haven port by comments from Moody's that the triple-A rating is safe; risks to the rating would arise if the government is unable to bring a downward trajectory on debt and if the US dollar is challenged as the main reserve currency.
Data today from Europe confirmed that June PMI which measures activity in the manufacturing and services sector came in weaker than expected, however the euro is up this morning against the USD and the GBP as stress tests on Greek banks were positive.
In the UK mortgage approvals came in better than expected, however net lending was down. Sterling is under pressure against the Euro and the USD following the dip in market confidence.
Report by Phil McHugh
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 22, 2009
N/A No major economic indicators scheduled.
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THE STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1399.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1469.07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1517.75. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1437.75. Second support is the 25% retracement level crossing at 1399.87. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 12.25 pts. at 1451.75 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 873.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 922.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 921.70. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 922.11. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 899.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 873.10. The September S&P 500 Index was down 6.80 pts. at 908.90 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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June 22, 2009
Looking at the markets this morning the euro has started on the back foot. The reason for the fall in the euro is due to banking fears again creeping into the scene. The European Central Bank has warned that the region may face another 283 billion euros of losses by the end of next year and it seems that the skeletons are still appearing for Europe's banking sector.
Further writedowns are likely to appear in most major economies, however the scale of the losses in the Eurozone is likely to weigh on the euro going forward. An article in the Wall Street Journal also highlighted the plight facing the German economy stating that "weaker tax revenue, soaring welfare bills and new spending for bank bailouts and fiscal-stimulus measures could increase Germany's debt by more than 100bn euros next year".
Further write downs and ballooning debt will certainly undermine the euro, especially given the conservative stance so far taken by the ECB. The German Ifo business climate survey released already shows an improvement in June to 85.9 from 84.2 in May, the business expectation index also rose to 85.90 in June from 84.30 in May.
This is good news for Germany but has not helped the euro gain as the market takes that data with a heavy pinch of salt given the weaker sentiment shrouding the euro-zone and Germany as mentioned earlier.
In the UK, Rightmove has reported a 0.4% month on month fall in house prices which has bucked the trend of recent improvements in housing sector data. The Bank Of England also identified weakening of lending in its last survey for April. Sterling so far has not been dented in the weaker data, it seems that the market does not expect back to back improvements in house prices at this point.
Looking at the week ahead the main focus is on the Fed rate decision on Wednesday evening. The Fed are not expected to move on interest rates although their response to QE measures already introduced and possible further measures could surprise the markets.
Report by Phil McHugh
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June 19th 2009
Analyzing forex trading pairs can be a great way to take quick profits from any given pair of cross rates. It can also be time consuming but with the MarketClub "Trade Triangle" technology the job is a lot quicker and simpler.
Right now the Australian dollar is performing well against USD, GBP and the YEN.
How does the AUD compare with the SWISS FRANC or the US dollar aginst the SWISS FRANC ? If you can access this information quickly, easily and accurately you will be in a postion to make some good profits because you will insantly know whether you should be short or long, selling or buying in any of the markets.
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June 19, 2009
The currency markets settled into range trading yesterday as mixed market data continued to cloud the outlook for global economies. Sterling dipped sharply following unexpectedly weak retail sales data which reinforced recent words of caution from the Bank Of England and Mr Darling. The pound managed to claw back most of the losses in later trading and this bodes well for the technical strength of the pound which could see it form a base for a move towards 1.20 against the euro and 1.65 on the USD.
Focusing on data yesterday from the US, weekly jobless claims rose modestly to 608,000 and there was a decrease in continuing claims. This indicates that the pace of lay-offs has fallen and added optimism to the markets as employers look to retain staff with the view of an expected rise in business activity going forward. In addition, the Philly Fed survey on the manufacturing sector showed a rise to -2.2 in June from -22.60 in May, although still in contraction the data is much healthier than expected. This helped to calm jitters and lift activity in riskier assets, the AUD posted gains against the YEN
, USD
and GBP
and the Kiwi dollar also gained.
In other news, German producer prices came in as expected and EU leaders stated that further budget stimulus was not warranted at the present time. Leaders also backed the reform of financial supervision following news from the UK and the US on this topic; the EU will plan a creation of pan-European standard-setting and risk monitoring bodies in 2010. EU leaders are expected today to back a plan for a quick disbursement of the next installment of aid to Latvia. The Euro is looking stronger against the USD but remains under pressure against sterling.
Figures from yesterday showed that Britain's public finances fell with net borrowing rising to nearly 20 billion pounds. Also a report from the Bank Of England showed that lending to British businesses fell by 5.4 billion pounds in April, not a good indicator for easing credit conditions. Sterling was not dented on the news but growing debt and tight credit conditions going forward will weigh on the pound.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that it would continue to act to prevent the appreciation of the Swiss Franc against the euro- the SNB intervened on March 12 and again through the Bank for International Settlements on May 15th. The Swiss Franc was a major gainer during the global slowdown and the SNB are proactively trying to maintain a leash on the strength of the Franc.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 18, 2009
8:30 AM ET. USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Reports
8:30 AM ET. June 1 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 603K; previous 601K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected +2K; previous -24K)
Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 6816000)
Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +59K)
10:00 AM ET. May Conference Board Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +1%; previous +1%)
Coincident Index (previous -0.2%)
Lagging Index (previous -0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. June 6 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer (previous 0%)
10:00 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
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Business Activity (expected -18; previous -22.6)
Prices Paid (previous -22.8)
Employment (previous -26.8)
New Orders (previous -25.9)
Prices Received (previous -33.8)
Delivery Times (previous -18.1)
Inventories (previous -28.6)
Shipments (previous -19)
10:30 AM ET. June 5 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2443)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)
4:30 PM ET. June 8 Money Supply
4:30 PM ET. June 1 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 35.41B)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 36.87B)
Primary Dealer Borrowings (previous 0)
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 0)
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 123.99B)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 110.61)
4:30 PM ET. June 1 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.75T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 811.09B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 1.93T)
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THE STOCK INDEXES
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June 18, 2009
Following yesterday's cautious assessment from the Bank Of England, sterling dipped after a good run. The dip in sterling yesterday was not hugely significant (1% against the euro and 0.8% against the USD) but it does dampen recent expectations of targeting 1.20 on the EURO and 1.70 against the USD.
Data just released in the form of UK retail sales was much worse than expected falling 0.6% month on month against a forecast of a 0.4% rise. This brings the fall in retail sales to -1.6% on a year on year basis!
The fall in retail sales is a big surprise and bucks the trend of recent gains on retail sales in April and May. The fall has been attributed to poor sales of clothing, footwear and sales by department stores. It is worth noting that online retail sales posted the slowest growth rate in the surveys nine year history dropping 3.5% from April's level. This identifies that both on the street and on-line sales are suffering as the economic slowdown maintains its hold with consumers.
Sterling dipped sharply on the news against across the markets dropping a full cent against the US dollar and 0.6% against the euro.
David Blanchflower (former MPC member) warned that we have yet to realize how painful economically the next few years will be, Blanchflower's opinion is well regarded as he was one of the few voices warning of the full economic impact of the sub-prime fall out before the reality of it kicked in.
Mervyn King, in a speech at Mansion House emphasized the need for a clear plan to reduce deficits in the next parliament; this will be key for the future performance of sterling and the USD as concerns are mounting on the spiralling debt levels.
Lack of a clear plan to reduce this debt will lead to weakness in USD and the pound.
Mervyn King wants the Bank Of England to have more say in financial regulation contrasting to Darling's view that the current system is adequate. Similarly in the US Barack Obama in between swatting flies has come up with some new proposals to try to safeguard the US economy from a repeat of recent issues.
The theme of the proposals was to increase power and accountability for the Federal Reserve and to get banks to raise additional capital going forward. Whilst the regulatory discussion are not having a direct bearing on the markets- it is critical that this dealt with along with spiraling debt in order to increase confidence in the UK and US economies moving forward.
Looking at the USD we did see some weakness in trading yesterday as lower inflation data essentially underlined the necessity to maintain interest rates at low levels for some time to come.
In other news a report in Australia showed that the Reserve Bank of Australia sold over 1 billion AUD in May to try to suppress the strength of the currency- this just shows the demand for the AUD as a higher yielding commodity currency in the last month.
Report by Phil McHugh
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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June 17th 2009
I would like to share this look at and analyse the S&P 500 with you.
The SP 500 index is showing down on the 200 Day indicators yet up on the 50 Day. While it is in the trading range the MACD shows a downward trend putting pressure on the market.
The tenor of the market has changed so it may be well to expect a downward erosion at this time.
In addition to the two trend lines that are graphically illustrated in this short video, there are also two other tech indicators to take note.
I suggest you make the effort to watch this short video with my compliments.
Remember, as always, there no need for registration or plugins.
When you have watched it, I am sure you will see how you can benefit from these indicators.
All the best,
Tom Nadir
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June 17, 2009
A quick look at yesterday's movements in the markets saw sterling maintain its trade weighted highs following better than expected CPI data- against the euro we peaked at 1.1860 and recovered against the USD from 1.62 to 1.65 before US data turned the trend. EUR/USD also edged back to 1.39 as the USD was sold off following its previous day gains.
Recently we are seeing a market torn between risk appetite and risk aversion- this is dominating the currency markets with flows in and out of the USD and YEN still dictating. Looking at data from the US we saw that housing starts jumped 17.2% to 532,000 new units from Aprils low of 454,000
A good number but still 45.2% down on last year, at the same time we saw Industrial Production fall 1.1% in May from April which was worse than expected and suggests that the economy is still struggling to pull through its recessionary period.The mixed data led to a pull back in the markets as the USD gained on the weaker Industrial Production data.
Focusing on sterling this morning we have already seen unemployment data and the Bank Of England minutes. The unemployment data came in better than expected at +39.3k in May against a forecast of +60k. The BoE minutes showed a vote of 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5% and to maintain the current level of 125 billion on Quantitative Easing. The BoE pointed out that the rise in sterling could reduce net trade and CPI pressures in the short term and credit supply remained constrained- on the back of this sterling has made a swift u-turn from the initial rally on the data and is now dipping against the USD, EURO and YEN.
The news that British Airways are asking 40,000 of its staff to work for free for 1 month is also a stark reminder of the tough conditions in the UK economy and does not help sterling's cause.
Onto the BRIC meeting and the political leaders said they wanted to take a larger role in the world financial system. Especially as their foreign reserves grow. The BRIC leaders are divided between supporting the US dollar. As it is the only choice for now and advancing the march for an alternative. The meeting has not had a direct impact on the markets but will affect future sentiment on the USD.
Yesterday we saw a good ZEW report from Germany which identified both better sentiment and improved current conditions. This is indeed a surprise following sharp contraction and rising unemployment in Germany.
Later look out for the UK Chancellor making probably his most important speech in recent times at the Mansion House dinner. Within his address, he is expected to say that he will not alter the UK's regulatory regime between the BoE, Treasury and FSA.
Also, the US President, Barack Obama, will reveal plans for a system of financial regulation that gives the Federal Reserve primary responsibility for averting and mitigating future financial problems.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
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Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 16, 2009
Yesterday's cautious note led to a pronounced sell off in the equity markets as fresh concerns over the global economy sparked a sell off. The Nikkei was down 2.5%, the Dow was 2.1% lower and the Nasdaq slumped 2.3%. Tthe fall in the US stocks was the worst slide in a month.
It seems the market is now looking for more definitive signs that the economy is improving over sentiment. Weaker regional manufacturing data did not help the markets and also the news of a protestor death in Iran spooked the markets. The USD and the YEN both made gains yesterday with GBP/USD retracing back to 1.62 and EUR/USD back to 1.3750.
The USD is also under scrutiny ahead of the meeting of BRIC leaders- BRIC is an acronym that refers to the fast growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The leaders are to discuss mutual trade settlements and reserve investment in BRIC currencies. Russian PM Medvedev is calling for the creation of new reserve currencies outside the USD, at the same time Russian finance minister Alexi Kudrin said yesterday that he had confidence in the dollar and that there were no immediate plans to switch to a new reserve currency.
Kremlin aide Sergei Prikhodka also noted that BRIC leaders did not intend to discuss new reserve currencies in any great depth. The practicalities of looking for an imminent switch to a new reserve currency would be difficult to achieve but it will be interesting to see if a future plan to diversify away from USD will be discussed in depth. Naturally the USD will lose value on plans/discussion for a new reserve currency.
Sterling is continuing its bull run as data this morning confirms that May CPI rose 0.6% month on month which is stronger than the forecasted 0.3% gain. Some analysts feel this may increase the chance of a rate hike from the Bank Of England, however I think low rates will be on the cards for sometime and the Bank Of England will be nervous of too much inflationary pressure. Sterling is pushing higher against the euro and the USD, however it is back under 160 against the YEN.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 16 2009
This new course from Bill Polous was due for release in the Fall, but because of extreme interest from the Forex trading community, he put all his other projects on hold in order to release it this week.
Based on the early feedback he's been receiving from those lucky enough to see a preview copy, it looks like this may be a turning point in Forex trading.
Why?
Because Bill does everything in his power to give you the "keys to the kingdom" where you understand EXACTLY what to do when you go to place a trade. There's never any second guessing or wondering.
CAUTION: This is NOT for "systems junkies", or individuals who like to let others make their trading decisions.
But it IS for traders who like to have FULL CONTROL of their destiny in the markets.
IT'S ALL ABOUT YOU
This new method is designed with YOU and YOUR schedule in mind. It's all about giving you the flexibility you need in your busy day to trade in as little as 20 minutes or even all day long if that's what you have time for.
Bill is only planning on releasing a limited amount of courses in the next week that show you how to find trade setups quickly, protect your position with a sort of "risk shield" and then look for profit as fast as possible so you can move on to the next trade.
So if you want to< p>
* Triple your profit potential by simultaneously looking at the short, intermediate, and longer-term trends and then automatically using the dominant trend to virtually ensure your edge and give you the best chance for a successful trade.
* Get started quickly and place your first trade with as little as a $500 trading account when you use "mini lots".
* Trade in as little as 20 minutes or all day long by customizing your daily trading plan with the timeframes of your choice to fit your changing schedule.
* Enjoy frequent and fast trades from start to finish by quickly identifying only the highest-probability, lowest-risk trades.
* Practically "rub out" account-crippling losses by using simple yet profoundly powerful risk management rules. It's like having a Forex "Risk Shield" so you're protected at all times.
* Become an independent trader and stop relying on so-called gurus, black box systems, or other gimmicks. Be totally confident when you know what to do every time, no matter what happens in the markets.
...then check out the open letter Bill wrote for you that describes all the details:
I hope you're as excited as I am about this.
Good Trading,
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 15, 2009
8:30 AM ET. June NY Fed Empire State Survey
Manufacturing Index (previous -4.55)
Employment Index (previous -23.86)
New Orders Index (previous -9.01)
Prices Received Index (previous -27.27)
9:00 AM ET. April Treasury Intl Capital Flows, in dollars
To have an instant analysis on any symbols sent to your inbox immediately, Click this link
Monthly Net TIC Flows (previous 23.2B)
Net Foreign Acquisition of
Net Foreign Acquisition of US
Net Foreign Acquisition of US
Net Foreign Acquisition of US
Net Foreign Acquisition of US
Net Long-Term Securities
1:00 PM ET. June NAHB Housing Index
Housing Market Index (previous 16)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking and is trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1488.15. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1446.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1566.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1517.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1566.62. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1468.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1446.17. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 14.25 pts. at 1472.25 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 919.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 957.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 922.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 919.73. The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.60 pts. at 944.70 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 15, 2009
The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) commented that the recession will be shorter and less severe than previously expected. The CBI believes that the pace of contraction will moderate by the end of this year and moderate growth will materialise early next year. They also scaled back their forecast for unemployment from 3.2m to 3.03m by the second quarter of 2010.
However it warned that the recovery would be "slow and gradual" and it would take time to judge whether recent good news will turn into sustainable growth in the economy. This echoes the caution noted by Alistair Darling and comments from Bank Of England officials.
Sterling continues to hold respectable levels across the markets, it has retraced a little against the US dollar which is due to US dollar strength over sterling weakness which we will go into shortly.it has this morning hit a new 2009 high of 1.18 against the euro and holds above 160 against the Japanese Yen.
The euro is under pressure this morning against the USD and sterling following an article in the Daily Telegraph reporting of warnings to be released on the credit conditions in Germany. The DIHK survey to be released this week is expected to confirm that credit conditions for large German companies are not easing despite the interest rates being cut to 1%.
This will be a definitive blow for the Eurozone as it essentially affirms that the ECB have not done enough in easing credit conditions. This could lead to the ECB embracing further Quantitative Easing measures. The problem for the Eurozone and the euro is that these measures will not commence until July and could see the Eurozone sticking out like a sore thumb as other major economies drive towards receovery. This will naturally be euro negative.
On top of this negative slant for the euro, IMF's Strauss-Kahn has re-empahsised concerns over the budget situation in Latvia, he said "The IMF is especially concerned about the fact that the necessary measures which have to be undertaken to fix the important budget deficit should not hurt the poor, primarily." Escalation of budgetary concerns in Latvia will weaken the euro and Swedish Krona.
The main gainer in the markets since Friday is the US dollar. Risk appetite has waned and concerns in Latvia, North Korea and Tehran are encouraging Yen and Usd buying. The USD has also gained support in its status as a reserve currency from Russia and Japan. Kaoru Yasano, Japan's finance minister, said his trust in US treasuries was "absolutely unshakeable". Naturally any diversion from the US dollar as the natural reserve choice would hit the US dollar very hard.
On the back of risk appetite waning we have seen a slump in commodity based currencies such as the AUD, CAD and NZD.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.
Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 12 2009
I was just thinking...do you need these complimentary "Flexible Forex" training videos?
I think so but you decide.
Since releasing the "Flexible Forex" training videos just a couple of days ago, the requests for the "Forex Income Engine" 2.0 training course haven't stopped pouring into the office.
Some traders have even phoned our office asking how they can get a copy of the new course NOW, even though it doesn't get released until next Tuesday, June 16th.
Needless to say, the response to this new way of trading intra-day Forex pairs has been a bit overwhelming.
So if you want to know what comes with the course and what the price is check out the videos here and you will also discover that there is an opportunity to get a course for free!
Stay tuned for more soon.
Good Trading,
If you missed Part 1, you can see it here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 12, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May Import Prices
Import Prices (expected +1.5%; previous +1.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.4%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +15.4%)
To have an instant analysis on Petroleum Prices (or any other symbol) sent to your inbox immediately,
9:55 AM ET. June Reuters/Univ Of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, prelim
Sentiment Index End month (previous 68.7)
Sentiment Index Mid Month (expected 69.8; previous 67.9)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 69.4)
Expectations Index Mid Month (previous 69)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 67.7)
Value (Current Period) Mid Month (previous 66.2)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that additional short-term gains are possible. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1566.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1440.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1517.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1566.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1488.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1440.68. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.75 pts. at 1494.75 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 916.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 957.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 922.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 916.97. The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.60 pts. at 942.10 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 12 2009
I urge you to check out Bill Poulos's brand new, complimentary "Flexible Forex" training videos.
They reveal how he and a small group of his students have been enjoying all the recent volatility in the Forex markets caused by otherwise "scary" market conditions elsewhere.
So while other traders are "frozen" waiting for the markets to recover, some traders have been actively trading the Forex markets this way, day after day, completely ignoring the media's "doom and gloom" mantra.
Want to see how? Watch the videos here.
(These videos will be coming offline soon, so be sure to watch them and take notes before they disappear...)
Now, while these videos by themselves have more content than a lot of reports you'd have to PAY for, Bill released them to "whet your appetite" to see if you might be right for his brand new Forex Income Engine 2.0 home study course.
More details on this groundbreaking way to day trade the Forex markets have just been released in this new video where Bill reveals the answers to the top 2 questions he's been receiving since he released his new "Flexible Forex" 2.0 training videos.
I'll let you know if he releases any more training videos or updates. But in the meantime, if any of this piques your curiosity or interest, get ready for the special, limited release of his course next Tuesday, June 16th. It's going to be exciting.
Good Trading,
If you missed Part 1, you can see it here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
June 12, 2009
Has sterling broken the back of recent USD and euro strength witnessed in the last 6 months? You cannot take this for granted as sterling remains a fragile entity. We witnessed this in last weeks sharp sell off in sterling amid the political furor. The fact that the pound has recovered strongly is testament to increasing optimism for a recovery in the UK economy and also recovery in the global markets.
Cable (GBP/USD) has moved back over 1.65, sterling has consolidated at 2009 highs against the euro and we are still above 160 against the Yen. Sterling has had a range of positive economic indicators of late and most recently a survey by Gfk/NOP, a leading market research agency showed that inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 2.4% in May from 2.1% in Feb.
Also we had further good news in the housing sector as the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that mortgage approvals rose 16% month on month in April and loans to first time buyers improved by 11%. Sterling was also supported with confirmation of the Barclays/Blackrock deal completing- helping sterling through expected M&A flows materializing.
On the flipside we have seen sterling fall off a cliff on a number of occasions. Alistair Darling featured in a story in the FT called for caution on recent signs of an economic recovery in the UK. He signaled the threat of inflationary pressure from rising oil prices could hamper a recovery. Oil prices have risen swiftly to over $70 as optimism improves.
BoE member Paul Fisher backed up the call for caution stating that policymakers should not be complacent and warns that there is a major downside risk to growth still evident. In my view sterling is not out of the woods yet and may still trip on a few branches but the worst is behind us.
The US dollar looks like a currency in no mans land...yesterday data pointed to a sharp drop in jobless claims and an improvement in retail sales- yet the dollar was sold. The dollars problem is that risk appetite is fuelling dollar selling and concerns over the US fiscal deficit are not supporting the dollar on good news. The euro is also looking a little jittery on concerns of banking issues yet to emerge- this concern was underlined by comments from Deutsche that German, Irish and Nordic banks still look weak.
Eurozone industrial production just release came in worse than expected at -1.9% month on month. EUR/USD has moved off this mornings high at 1.41 and is looking at the moment to test the 1.40 level on the downside. Sterling looks consolidated at 1.17 against the euro.
No real data of note today- G8 are meeting in Lecce but no immediate impact is expected to fall into the markets.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 11 2009
I hope you were able to watch Part 1 of the brand new video Forex training I posted that reveals 30+ year trading veteran Bill Poulos's recent Forex discovery.
It's already shaking things up and breaking old paradigms in the Forex trading community. See what one trader had to say:
"I have been trading the Forex markets for 3 years, and I can honestly say this is probably one of the most interesting videos I have seen. Bill, you have a gift of being able to explain a method that every one can understand, look forward to your next video..."
-but wait until you see the next video...
PART 2 is ready now!
It's called "Flexible Forex" F.R.E.E.D.O.M. In Action There are no registration requirements.
In the first video, you saw you a high level overview of how all the turmoil in the world right now is creating possibly the best profit potential we've ever seen in the Forex markets.
Then you saw the flexible method Bill discovered that lets you trade as little or as much as you want... WHENEVER you want.
In Part 2, he "zooms in" and shows you, step-by-step, how he quickly and easily spots trade setups, in all 6 major Forex pairs and in any timeframe.
Part of his discovery is the completely uncommon way he uses 4 indicators. I'm not aware of anyone using them this way and that's why it's so powerful.
You'll also learn:
* Why you want to place your stop orders where you DON'T expect the market to go...
* How to get into a "F.R.E.E. trade" situation ASAP with all your Forex trades...
* How to handle losing trades like a pro...
* The kind of market you MUST avoid at all costs...
* His "super simple" risk management rules that even an 8th grader could understand and was inspired by EINSTEIN...
* A "hands-on" overview of some excellent broker-supplied charting and trading software that makes Forex trading easier than ever...
* ...and a TON more.
Go here to see this video now:
Make sure you take notes on these videos, because he will likely be pulling them offline next week.
Good Trading,
If you missed Part 1, you can see it here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
June 11, 2009
Sterling has again pushed higher on a trade weighted basis as optimism continues to grow on an imminent recovery in the UK. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said output grew 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April. The data suggests that the UK has become the first major economy to exit the recession and follows improved industrial production data yesterday and better recent house market signals.
The data in itself is not conclusive proof of an exit from recession but it has certainly helped sterling to move higher. The pound has hit a new 2009 high of 1.1737 against the euro, it is trading above 1.64 on the dollar and is still holding its head above 160 against the Japanese Yen. Bank Of England member Andrew Sentance also opined that Britain's economy is on track to return to growth later this year. Personally I feel the optimism is overcooked and could lead to another false dawn for sterling but it is refreshing to hear some postitive soundbites following months of doom and gloom!
Risk appetite remains strong in the markets supporting sterling, euro, aussie dollar and the canadian dollar. Stock markets around the world gained last month as the total stock market capitalization icreased by almost $5 trillion in May, according to preliminary data released by the World federation of Exchanges. The gain in May gives three consecutive monthly gains with the largest seen in May and all 52 stock markets reported an increase in their domestic stock market capitalization.
India led the way with a 44% increase. This recent improvement in global stock markets has led to further selling of the USD and the YEN. Sterling has gained due to the fact that it was pumelled in the downturn but the main gainer of late has been the AUD which is a firm favourite for yield based trades. The aussie was helped after China said that urban fixed-asset investment rose 32.9% in May following a government stimulus package of 4 trillion Yuan- more fuel for the risk appetite machine.
Last night the bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at 2.5% and indicated that the recession may be neraing an end- this led to a surge on the NZD/USD cross and GBP/NZD to fad away from its approach to 2.60 and back towards 2.55.
Main economic data today will surround US retail sales and jobless claims this afternoon. US data yesterday was not particularly positive with the US trade deficit widening for a second month and the Fed Beige book indicating that many US regions deteriorated between mid April and May. An auction of benchmark 10 year treasury notes led to selling pressure on the USD and led to spreads widening to levels not seen since October last year.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 10 2009
There is an indicator which has been around since 1957. It has accurately forecasted every inflationary and deflationary cycle since.
For large cyclic trends I like to use this method.I recommennd you try this index for certain stocks and commodity related markets.
Over the last 50 years, this index has seen some remarkable moves both on the upside and more recently on the downside. I believe that this is the indicator that everyone should watch. If you trade stocks or futures and are interested in world trade trends, this is the indicator to track.
The tenth revision of this index renamed it the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index (NYBOT_CR) I easily track this indicator everyday using MarketClub.
You can learn more about this index from the Trader's Blog.
Here is a list of the 19 markets that are included in the RJ/CRB index as implemented in the 2005 revision:
Metals: aluminum, copper, gold, nickel, silver
Take a few minutes to watch this short video and see how you can benefit from this indicator. There is no fee and there is no registration required.
You can view this new video with my compliments.
As always, there are no registration requirements.
All the best,
Tom Nadir
Take a look at how MarketClub has improved the charts.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
June 10, 2009
The markets have demonstrated conflicting trading signals on the USD- following last weeks rally back below 1.60 against the pound and to 1.38 against the euro we have now seen a reversal. The dollar was buoyed at the close of last week with improved non-farm payroll data increasing confidence in the greenback and political concerns further helping the USD gains against sterling.
Outlook in the US was again helped yesterday with regards to the repaying of TARP by the 10 large American institutions but the dollar weakened yesterday and followed its regular trend of being sold on risk appetite. The key data in the US today will focus on the trade balance and the Fed Beige book. The trade balance is expected to widen in the US due to higher petroleum prices and the beige book is expected to confirm that the pace of economic contraction has slowed and the housing market is continuing to stabilize. We will see how the data affects the dollar this afternoon.
I feel the dollar should come under future pressure due to recent fiscal policy and growing debt. This will discourage buying USD as a safe haven and it will be increasingly sold as recovery in the global markets improves. Cable is now looking to target a move to 1.65 and EUR/USD has moved back above 1.40 to 1.41 currently- with a rumour of Goldman's going long on EUR/USD and targeting 1.45.
Sterling was helped with better output data than expected this morning with Industrial production coming in at +0.3% against a forecast of -0.1%, however the trade deficit widened to -7.003bn pounds against a forecast of -6.5bn pounds This has not dented sterling too much and it has held firm against the majors. One key move is GBP/YEN is now trading back over 160.00 a good indicator of overall confidence permeating the markets.
Australia had a good number in the form of a key measure of consumer confidence posting its biggest monthly rise in 22 years- this has helped the AUD strengthen against the pound and the dollar and yen. The Aussie remains a firm favourite in yield and risk based trades from lower yielding/safe haven currencies. Other key data today is the interest rate decision from New Zealand- currently rates sit at 2.50% and a cut could be on the cards.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
June 9, 2009
Following a mauling in the European elections and a flurry of resignations and shouts for his resignation..Gordon Brown lives to fight another day! In a meeting with over 400 MPs he secured enough backing to push on. Sterling has reacted positively and is pushing higher across the markets including the USD and EUR as fears and uncertainty in the market are quelled, for now anyway.
Sterling was also boosted by further improvements in UK housing data- a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed house prices falling at their slowest pace since November 2007. Speculation is also helping sterling through positive M & A flows on the proposed sale of Barclays fund business in cash and stock to Blackrock Inc in the USA. Also in the UK we saw retail sales data fall 0.8% in May following the 4.6% rise in April- this dip adds a small dose of reality to recent improved confidence- it seems we are seeing optimism going forward but we are not going to push the boat out just yet! Cable is now targeting 1.6150 and then 1.62 on the upside levels, with 1.60 still a key pyscholigical support.
The euro has come under pressure following a dressing down by the IMF. The IMF highlighted their weak financial system and lack of a co-ordinated and aggressive plan for the euro-zone banks could deflect their drive for recovery. The IMF said "a key missing element is a proactive strategy to deal with a weakened financial system.", interestingly ECB members Stark and Weber s comments sharply contrasted that of the IMF as they noted the fact that price risks are on the upside and recent easing and stimulus may need to be reversed very quickly Stubborn or good policy, only time will tell. The worry on banking issues especially in eastern Europe could seriously hamper the euro going forward. GBP/EUR has bounced back to 1.1570 and looks bullish this morning.
Over to the US and risk sentiment was helped by reports that the US Treasury will announce today that 10 US banks are to repay TARP- essentially paying back government shares. This has helped boost risk and this has eased the USD lower for now- we mentioned yesterday that better economic data on Friday actually helped strengthen the USD but this has not followed through as yet today.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Brand new video reveals Forex discovery (part 1)
Monday, June 8, 2009
Last Fall, during a late-night Forex trading research session, one of the industry's most respected trading educators made a discovery around day trading Forex that he shared with a limited group of traders.
Now, 6 months later... the same trading educator recently re-emerged from a marathon follow-up research session where he analyzed the killer results his initial group of traders got and discovered 3 different ways to make them even BETTER.
From what I've seen, NO ONE is trading Forex like this (yet) not to mention this completely turns traditional "day trading" on its ear.
He recorded a new training video this past weekend that "pulls back the covers" on this updated discovery & reveals how you can shield your portfolio from risk every single time you trade, especially if you're inexperienced & have little time.
Watch it here: Forex Income Engine 2.0
THE BIG SURPRISE?
During his research, he confirmed what I (and others) suspected for a long time:
* The collapsing global stock markets and economies are creating pressures that, in turn, are creating more profit potential than we've ever seen before in the Forex markets.
That may come as a big surprise, especially if you're new to trading but he explains in his training video why this is happening, and how you can get in on it.
You'll also discover:
* How you can literally TRIPLE your profit potential when you use a little-known trick that has to do with the predominant trend.
* 2 "retracement tricks" most traders flat-out MISS, which, if you know how to spot them, can turn an otherwise losing trade into a profit powerhouse.
* The huge "edge" you get over other traders when you automatically identify the predominant trend at any point in time and then "throw yourself in front of it".
* The #1 key to trading Forex you MUST do EVERY SINGLE TIME before you place a trade before even thinking about profit. When you do this, you automatically "up the odds" that a profit will unfold.
* ...and there is a whole lot more.
If you're interested in Forex, or have been a little "spooked" by what's been going on in the markets, then this may be the most important trading video you'll ever see this year.
Why? Because after you watch it, you'll be SCRAMBLING to start trading Forex this way.
It finally brings flexibility and customization to Forex day trading so that ANYONE can have an "edge", whether you only have 20 minutes to trade, or if you have all day. Your choice.
It's awesome (and surprisingly simple)
Good Trading,
Due to server limitations, this video might not be online for long, so make sure you watch it TODAY.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 8, 2009
10:00 AM ET. May Conference Board Employment Trends Index (previous -0.7%)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1566.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1415.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1513.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1566.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1456.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1415.05. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 14.00 pts. at 1481.00 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 910.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 957.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 925.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 910.58. The June S&P 500 Index was down 8.30 pts. at 932.20 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 8, 2009
The USD continues to fightback this morning making further gains against the pound and euro. Cable is down to the low 1.58s after kicking off at 1.5930 the USD is seeing across the board strength and sterling is weak in its own right. The Dollar is rallying following a positive move after the better than expected US jobs data on Friday US non-farm payrolls fell by 345,000 in May over a forecast for a 520,000 drop.
Interestingly the market is now turning to buying the dollar on the improved data- previously the USD was sold on better data as risk appetite increased causing a flow out of dollars into higher yielding currencies. This is significant as it shows that confidence is creeping back into the US economy even in the light of long term concerns on the health of the US economy.
Sterling continues to slide following rumours of Gordon Browns resignation on Thursday sweeping the markets- the speculation was quickly denied but the damage had already been done. The pound remains under pressure as expected dismal European election results fed through heaping more pressure on Brown and heightening the uncertainty on his tenure. It is a well known trend that political uncertainty will weaken a currency- the fact that this uncertainty is arising amid an economic crisis and extremely volatile and fragile markets magnified the moves in sterling.
The pound was not helped when former Bank Of England member David Blanchflower stated that the Bank may expand and widen its Quantitative Easing programme. Last week the BoE did not move further on their QE programme and maintained the level at 125 billion pounds. The central bank has the authority to expand to 150 billion and ask permission for more if required, Blanchflower feels that the current level of QE will not bring inflation back to target and therefore assumes that there will be more to come.
The introduction of the QE programme and the subsequent expansion of it in May has been historically sterling negative, therefore further discussion and action on this is presumed to be sterling negative.
Elsewhere concerns were again raised over the health of the Baltic states as Latvia raised its deficit projections and a government bond auction failed. This led to losses in the Swedish krona and the euro which are both exposed to the region. The stability of the Baltic states has been mentioned previously and any worsening of the situation could impact on the euro further.
Report by Phil McHugh
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 5, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -525K; previous -539K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 9.2%; previous 8.9%)
Average Hourly Earnings (previous 18.51)
Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1)
Manufacturing Payrolls (previous -149K)
Overall Workweek (previous 33.2)
Overall Workweek Net Change (previous 0)
Service Producing Payrolls (previous -269K)
3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -7B; previous -11.1B)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1566.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1410.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1497.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1566.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1444.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1410.57. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 4.25 pts. at 1497.25 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 910.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 920.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 910.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 pts. at 944.30 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 5, 2009
Sterling had the equivalent of a Bad Hair Day yesterday on the foreign exchange market. Even though we had been expecting Sterling to ease during the day and overnight, the magnitude of the drop was quite surprising. Several factors compounded the situation, culminating in an early afternoon rumor that Gordon Brown had resigned. Ongoing technical now look for a test of the strong Sterling support zone between 1.5800 and 1.5500.
Today's main interest will be on the UK Cabinet reshuffle (last throw of the dice perhaps) and US non-farm payrolls. It looks likely that Alistair Darling will hold on to his job as Chancellor but most other posts will change stewardship. Whether this is sufficient to appease an electorate rapidly losing faith in the Government or the party faithful who appear to be losing confidence in Gordon Brown as we get nearer and nearer to a general election.
All this will cause overseas holders of Sterling to fret over the short term prospects for Sterling although maintaining Darling in the Treasury should add some degree of comfort (not that he is deemed overly good but that he is likely to be an awful lot better than the alternatives).Non-farm payrolls this afternoon are expected to show another month of increasing lay-offs with approximately 500K expected to be reported. This could very well see the unemployment rate rise to 9.1% and cause the recent Dollar buying to be reversed as we approach the weekend.
Yesterday was Central Bank Day which saw the BoE produce exactly what had been expected - Nothing. The ECB however, gave the market a little bit more to chew over. Although they left rates unchanged at 1%, they revised their estimates for the fall in the annualised rate of Eurozone GDP to around 5.1% rather than a maximum drop of 3.1% that was predicted just 3-months ago. The Central Bank also announced that it was proceeding with its limited 'credit easing' through the buying of Euro 60 billion of covered bonds. It sounds impressive but represents just 0.6% of Eurozone GDP which, when compared with the UK and the US attempts at QE (9% and 12% of GDP respectively), looks a feeble attempt at a stimulus.
Elsewhere, investors remain focused on the Baltic States and the condition of their economies. The Latvian Central Bank confirmed its commitment to the Lat's peg value versus the Euro but the market is still very unsure. This maintains pressure on Sweden, the Swedish currency and their Bank's in particular.
Report by Mark O`Sullivan
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 4, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May 30 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (Expected 620K; previous 623K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -3K; previous -13K)
Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 6788000)
Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +11000)
8:30 AM ET. 1 Quarter Productivity & Costs, revised
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +1.2%; previous +0.8%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.9%; previous +3.3%)
10:30 AM ET. May 29 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2213)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)
4:30 PM ET. May 27 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 38.05B)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 38.15B)
Primary Dealer Borrowings (previous 0)
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 0)
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 123.57B)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 124.23B)
4:30 PM ET. June 3 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.72T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 814.51B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 1.9T)
4:30 PM ET. May 25 Money Supply
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1404.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1484.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1430.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1404.81. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.75 pts. at 1480.25 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 908.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 908.28. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 pts. at 935.60 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
In this video we are revisiting Apple, Inc (NASDAQ_AAPL). I last looked at Apple on April 9th, when it was trading at considerably lower levels than where we are right now. At that time I made some projections using MarketClub's Fibonacci tool, as to where I thought Apple was headed.
Obviously Apple has moved quite a bit and I want to revisit some of these key levels that I think may be a real challenge to this market in the very near term.
It is a short video, but I will go into details about levels I think could affect this market.
You can view this new video with my compliments.
MarketClub's 'Trade Triangle' technology has been right on the money with Apple and continues to maintain a long position from $103.60.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
Evidence that the Global Economy is on the turn continues to emerge. Probably the most surprising development over the last couple of days was the positive 1st qtr GDP number from Australia indicating that from a technical point of view at least, the country had completely avoided recession. This was presumed to reflect the pick up in demand for the commodities that are the staple export of the country BUT overnight data showing that Australia has in fact been running a trade deficit suggests that all is not sweetness and light down under.
The AUD accordingly gave up some of yesterday's gains but perception is that despite the disappointing trade data, the Aussie is likely to be one of the star performers on the currency markets over the next 12-months. Comments from the RBA's Stevens added to the positive sentiment. He stated that the Central Bank still had scope to cut rates if required but that the Bank needed to be very cautious with further easing - he also dismissed the use of QE in the current climate.
Sterling had a good morning yesterday but not such a good afternoon. The UK PMI Services data was much more upbeat than had been anticipated indicating a positive sentiment from the sector for the first time in over 1-year (April 08). Sterling rallied to a high of 1.6645 and 1.1650 before gravity took its toll. Looking at the technicals at the time, the RSI (relative strength index) had breached its upper limit and implied that Sterling was overbought, requiring a retracement back to the 1.5850 level in cable to normalise the situation.
This is not to imply that the recent bull Sterling run has finished but that a pause is on the cards. Indeed the appetite shown for the recent gilt offerings from the DMO (with overseas holdings historically being in the region of 40%) suggest continued buying of Sterling as the Government funds its ballooning deficits. It is difficult to ascertain whether today's European/local elections in the UK will have any effect on Sterling's value or indeed whether the calamitous decline of the Labour Government has already been built in to the currency's worth.
The Dollar took heart on 2 counts yesterday. Firstly affirmation from several Far Eastern countries, India, Japan and Korea and then separately China, that the Dollar was still regarded as the only candidate for Global Reserve Currency status and secondly from the Ben Bernanke testimony, during which he painted a fairly bullish picture of the US economy.
The currency's strength was tempered somewhat by a statement from the Malaysian PM suggesting that his country and China were considering ending the use of the Dollar as a trading medium between the 2 countries. This strengthened the Euro a tad as people saw the Euro as a possible replacement
Today is 'interest rate decision day' - but far more importantly, will there be an announcement of any changes to the current QE measures day? Expect more from the BoE than from either the ECB or the Bank of Canada. No change is expected in interest rates from any of the 3 Central Banks today.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currency Market Updates or Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
7:00 AM ET. May 29 Mortgage Applications
Market Composite Index (previous 786)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -14.2%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 256.6)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous +1%)
Refinance Index (previous 3890.4)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -18.9%)
8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report
Private Payrolls Forecast (expected 550000; previous 491000)
10:00 AM ET. April Factory Orders
Total Orders (expected +1%; previous -0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous -0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous -0.9%)
10:00 AM ET. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index
Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 45; previous 43.7)
Non-Manufacturing Business Index (previous 45.2)
Prices Index (previous 40)
Employment Index (previous 37)
New Orders Index (previous 47)
10:30 AM ET. May 29 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 363.11M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.6M; previous -5.41M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 203.42M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected +100K; previous -537K)
Distillate Stocks (previous 148.38M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +1.2M; previous +248K)
Refinery Usage (expected 85.5%; previous 85.1%)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1401.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1484.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1420.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1401.98. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 7.00 pts. at 1471.50 as of 6:04 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 907.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 pts. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
June 3, 2009
We continue on the bull-run for sterling as PMI data emphasises a rise to 51.7 in May from 48.7 in April, over the 50 level identifies that the sentiment is positive for the UK activity. Sterling rallied on the news this morning and tested new yearly highs against the US dollar and the euro. The improvement in PMI levels was mirrored in the eurozone as composite PMI, a gauge of private sector activity rose to 44.0 from 41.1 in April.
This data lends further weight to shouts of a recovery to commence by the end of this year for the UK and an indication that the worst is behind the eurozone. More positives came in the form of UK consumer confidence data released by the Nationwide Building society which strengthened in May as more optimism is foreseen in the next 6 months in the economy and the jobs market.
Tomorrow we will get the announcements from the Bank Of England and ECB on interest rates. It is not anticipated that we will see any movement from the UK on interest rates and it is unlikely that we will see additional measures for QE, although that was the thought process last month too!
For the ECB Trichet said 'We expect to engage in a programme of around 60 billion euros that targets an important segment of the private securities market which has been particularly affected by financial market turbulence'. This in theory should weaken the euro and help sterling gain further, however given that lots of good news has already permeated sterling we could be in line for some profit taking. Watch this space!
Later we have testimony from Ben Bernanke on current economic conditions and the federal budget. It will be interesting to see if attention is turned to the recent fall in the US dollar and the long term factors that are driving this weakness- in particular the fiscal health and 10 year budget projections amid ever increasing debt levels.
Report by Phil McHugh
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
7:45 AM ET. May 30 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous +0.8%)
Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous +0.5%)
8:55 AM ET. May 30 Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous -0.4%)
12MonChgPct (previous -0.2%)
52WkChgPct (previous -0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. April Pending Home Sales
MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (expected +0.5%; previous +3.2%)
YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +1.1%)
4:30 PM ET. May 29 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.82M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -758K)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +142M)
Refinery Runs (previous 83.8%)
5:00 PM ET. May 30 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous minus 47)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Monday's breakout above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1442.87. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1399.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1482.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1412.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1399.58. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 4.50 pts. at 1474.50 as of 6:08 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is trading above January's high crossing at 937.00 as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 905.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 947.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 905.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 pts. at 941.60 as of 6:10 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
How Far Can the Dollar Fall?
I was quite amazed when I looked back to see how long it has been since I have put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. I had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos I had done specifically for the Dollar Index and it proved to be successful
In todays video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I will also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
I will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our Trade Triangle technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
You can view this new video with my compliments.
If you have not done so already, I strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our Trade Triangle approach.
You can view this video here with my compliments.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
You can view this new video with my compliments.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Take a look at how MarketClub has improved the charts.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
2 June, 2009
Yesterday we saw a fresh seven month high against the dollar and a six month high against the euro. The pound made early gains in the markets yesterday and consolidated those gains overnight. The pound is galvanizing on signs that the global economy is recovering following huge depreciation as the economic crisis unfolded. The key drivers in the market remain activity in the equity markets and the sentiment to buy higher yielding and riskier assets.
Recently the markets have been boosted by gains in Asian stocks- in particular commodity stocks, this was fuelled by improved sentiment from China. This is leading to a move out of USD predominantly and also other low yielding currencies are shedding earlier gains- such as the Yen and the Swiss Franc. Low interest rates and improved confidence are naturally causing higher yielding commodity based assets to be sought. CAD, AUD and NZD looking strong.
The mighty USD remains the key driver for the currency markets. It still remains the main harbour for currency reserves despite recent concerns on a spiraling debt burden. In fact China yesterday affirmed during a visit by US treasury secretary Tim Geithner that the USD would remain the global reserve currency and their home for the bulk of their currency reserves- a huge boost for the dollar. Therefore any trepidation in the markets will lead to US dollar strength again.
Yesterday was PMI day and all economies showed good evidence of green shoots emerging. There were some impressive numbers from the UK, Europe and the US as well as strong manufacturing data from China. This added to upward pressure on both oil and hard commodities and we saw gold again within touching distance of the psychological $1000 barrier.
In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 3.0% citing signs of the global economy stabilizing as a reason to leave rates unchanged. UK mortgage approvals for April have come in at 43,201, up from 40,038 in March, and better than the median forecast of 41,000. Good bit of news also from Spain as the May jobless total fell 24,741 against the 39,478 rise in April, the rapidly falling jobless count in Spain has been a major concern.
Report by Phil McHugh
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new daily trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 1, 2009
8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income
Personal Income (previous -0.3%)
Personal Spending (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Index Monthly (previous 0%)
PCE Price Index Yearly (previous +0.6%)
PCE Core Price Index Monthly (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Index Yearly (previous +1.8%)
0945/1345 May Dow Jones Econ Sentiment Index
DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 27.6)
10:00 AM ET. April Construction Spending
New Construction (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. May ISM Mfg Index
Manufacturing PMI (previous 40.1)
Prices Index (previous 32)
Employment Index (previous 34.4)
Inventories (previous 33.6)
New Orders Index (previous 47.2)
Production Index (previous 40.4)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and trading above the previous reaction high crossing at 1437.75 thereby renewing this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this spring's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1395.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1458.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1496.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1395.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1342.75. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 14.25 pts. at 1450.25 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is trading above resistance crossing at 929.00 as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 937.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 979.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 903.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 13.70 pts. at 932.30 as of 6:07 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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1 June, 2009
The market is in a consolidation mode once again. But most charts of the major market indexes are showing them to be near key resistance levels (based on Bollinger Band analysis). A big breakout could occur today.
The market has digested lots of news over the weekend. The tumbling dollar, GM facing bancruptcy, North Korea are "saber-rattling", the questions over mortgage rates and ...
Keep an eye on the charts!
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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1 June, 2009
The USD has tumbled to lower levels against a basket of currencies. The pound has jumped to 1.64 and the euro has advanced to 1.42 against the ailing US dollar. The US dollar fell as signs of a recovery in China boosted global confidence- this is significant as China is the worlds third largest economy and optimism and recovery here will go a long way to boost the global recovery.
The Dollar index which is a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies dropped to the lowest level this year and there is a galvanizing push to sell the currency. Economically the Q1 GDP confirmed the worst six month period for the US economy in 51 years, debt levels also remain a major concern- the Congressional budget office projected the US budget deficit would quadruple to about $1.8 billion.
On top of this there is still a question mark looming on the US sovereign debt rating- heightening calls for a move out of US dollars as a reserve currency. Technically the USD could target 1.68 against sterling. Ultimately the weakness in the US dollar will ultimately lend to improved economic conditions with increased exports compensating for a public not spending.
The dollar was not helped by the news that GM is officially slipping into bankruptcy- although this has been widely expected it added to the dollars woes. The US government will step in to tale ownership of the car giant further spiraling the government spending.
This week a main focus will be on the rate announcements from the Bank Of England and the ECB. No further easing is expected from the BoE but there may be further talk or action in the QE programme.
In the eurozone CPI a measure of inflation came in at 0.0% for May- this is the lowest on record. This falling inflation indicator naturally raises the concern for deflation in the euro zone, however ECB president Trichet brushed these fears aside stating that 'Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, whether based on surveys or extracted from financial indicators, have been and continue to be firmly anchored at levels consistent with our definition of price stability.'
This week we will wait to see if the ECB look to cut interest further from 1% and also to see if the ECB expands its programme to buy covered bonds to revive private sector lending. Speaking in Marrakech, Trichet said 'We expect to engage in a programme of around 60 billion euros that targets an important segment of the private securities market which has been particularly affected by financial market turbulence'. This in theory should weaken the euro and help sterling gain above the recent high of 1.1535.
On Friday we see non-farm payrolls from the US. An awful -525k is expected and anything -500k or better will be considered positive.
Report by Phil McHugh, Corporate Foreign Exchange
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If you did not make money this month then you were not watching our Trade Triangles.
CURRENCIES
May has been quite a month, especially for the British Pound (GBP). In an earlier video, I alerted everyone of the potential upward move. The market ended up moving right in line with my expectations and is showing some excellent profits. One currency contract at the CME is showing a profit of over $8,000, a stunning return of over 216% over initial margin*.
ETF
I also alerted you to a move in crude using the ETF USO which closely tracks the crude oil market. This market has gone up over 8% since MarketClub issued the first signal on May 6th at 32.16 using our Trade Triangle technology.
PRECIOUS METAL
Gold has also been a big winner this month with a move over the $950 level. This stellar move produced profits over $2,845 a contract. This represents a return of 50% in less than a month over initial margin*.
If you are not familiar with our 'Trade Triangle' technology, I highly recommend you take a look at it and see how it works in spotting the big moves before they begin.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.
I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
*Initial margin for British Pound Futures $2,700
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 29, 2009
8:30 AM ET. 1 Quarter GDP, prelim
GDP 1st Est. (expected -5.5%: previous -6.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +2.9%; previous +2.9%)
Purchase Price Index (previous -1%)
PCE Price Index (previous -1%)
Real Final Sales (previous -3.4%)
9:45 AM ET. May Chicago PMI
Employment Index (previous 31.8)
New Orders Index (previous 42.1)
Prices Paid Index (previous 28.4)
Purchasing Managers Index (Adjusted) (expected 42; previous 40.1)
Supplier Deliveries Index (previous 45.4)
9:55 AM ET. May Reuters/Univ Of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, final
Sentiment Index End month (expected 67.9; previous 65.1)
Sentiment Index Mid Month (previous 67.9)
Expectations Index End Month (previous 63.1)
Expectations Index Mid Month (previous 69)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6)
5-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8)
Value (Current Period) End Month (previous 68.3)
Value (Current Period) Mid Month (previous 66.2)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1437.75 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1437.75 or below the reaction low crossing at 1336.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1429.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1437.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1393.03. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1391.90. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 9.75 pts. at 1428.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.60 pts. at 911.70 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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Lots of positives in the global markets this morning and for sterling. Firstly we have seen the Nationwide House price index survey show a surprise bounce as the average house price rose 1.2% in May- this is the strongest monthly gain for 19 months. Although this is a good indicator that the severe downturn in the property market may be bottoming out- Nationwide noted that it is still too early to call as unemployment is still rising and credit conditions remain tight.
Sterling was also buoyed by UK consumer confidence matching its highest level in 11 months reported market researcher GfK NOP. The CBI also reported that business sentiment rose to the highest level since 2007. Sterling is now pushing towards 1.61 against the dollar (a new 2009 high) and 155.00 against the Yen- we could see new yearly highs very soon on the EUR and for sterling on a trade weighted basis.
In the wider markets we have seen more leveraging into Oil and Gold which both rose sharply- Gold is closing in on $1,000/oz again and Oil has hit a new 6 month high above $65 a barrel. Commodity prices have leaped this month as a move out of the dollar and Yen mirrors the improved confidence and a move from safety to investments. We have seen major gains in commodity based currencies particularly against the USD- with the CAD, AUD and NZD all making gains this month.
This morning we also saw German retail sales rise unexpectedly in April by 0.5%- a hopeful sign for the German economy to curb the sharp contraction in recent GDP data witnessed in the Q1. This has helped the euro gain against the dollar back over 1.40 and also to remain firm against sterling for now under 1.15. Eurozone CPI inflation came in at 0.0%- the lowest on record- it seems concerns on deflation are not weighing on the euro.
For today again we will be largely US focused- the revised 1st Qtr US GDP figure market expects a small upward revision, it will still leave the annual drop at an alarming 5.4%. Should prove Dollar negative.
Report by Phil McHugh, Corporate Foreign Exchange
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 28, 2009
8:30 AM ET. May 23 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims 625K 631K
Weekly Jobless Claims Net
Change -6K -12K
Continuing Jobless Claims 6662000
Continuing Jobless Claims Net
Change +75K
8:30 AM ET. April Durable Goods
Total Orders 0% -0.8%
Orders, Ex-Defense -0.6%
Orders, Ex-Transportation -0.6%
10:00 AM ET. April New Home Sales
Overall Sales 365K 356K
Percent Change +2.5% -0.6%
10:00 AM ET. May 16 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer 0%
10:30 AM ET. May 22 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage 2116
Total Working Gas in Storage
(Net Change) +103
11:00 AM ET. May Kansas City Fed Mfg Index 6
11:00 AM ET. May 22 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Stocks 368.52M
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) -900K -2.11M
Gasoline Stocks 203.95M
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) -2M -4.34M
Distillate Stocks 148.13M
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) +1.2M +672K
Refinery Usage 82% 81.8%
12:00 PM ET. April Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index
Manufacturing Index (MoM) -2.4%
Manufacturing Index (YoY) -23.2%
Auto Output Index (MoM) +0.9%
Auto Output Index (YoY) -33.8%
Machinary Output Index (MoM) -5.5%
Machinary Output Index (YoY) -24.6%
Resource Output Index (MoM) -1.5%
Resource Output Index (YoY) -12.3%
Steel Output Index (MoM) -5.5%
Steel Output Index (YoY) -34.1%
4:30 PM ET. May 18 Money Supply
4:30 PM ET. May 27 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings 37.88B
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 38.16B
Primary Dealer Borrowings 0
Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 0
Discount Window Borrowings 126.35B
Discount Window Borrowings W/E
Daily Avg 127.93B
4:30 PM ET. May 27 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings 2.72T
US Foreign Agency Holdings 818.01B
Foreign Treasury Holdings 1.9T
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1437.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1336.50 would confirm that a broad top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-June. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1428.75. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1437.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1342.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1336.50.
The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40.
The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8230 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early June. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8591 are needed to renew this spring's rally and would thereby open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 9088. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 8591. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 9088. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8230. Second support is the 25%
The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8230 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early June. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8591 are needed to renew this spring's rally and would thereby open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 9088. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 8591. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 9088. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8230. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 8066.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
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Key Events and Commentary, currency market updates, market club updates,first resistance, second resistance, first support, second support,
May 28, 2009
Overnight the dollar has snapped back against sterling from above the 1.60 level The main driver was the benchmark 10-year yield rising through 3.5%.
The recent sharp rise in yields has come despite strong demand at the two Treasury auctions this week -- notably from foreign investors -- which has soothed some concern over the long-term U.S. sovereign credit ratings outlook and supported the dollar. Global markets look for an increase in US treasury yield as a sign of economic recovery. In theory this is a positive, however if yields rally steeply this will lead to high long term interest rates which in turn will drive up costs.
The Dollar was also buoyed as Moodys confirmed its credit rating, although it warned that it must reduce its debt levels once the economy returns to growth. The US dollar has also made gains against the Euro and the Yen with Japanese investors encouraged to move into dollar denominated overseas assets. Look for yields and equities to continue to drive the USD in the short term.
Data from the eurozone confirmed that the leading economic index came in at 1.8% in April- this is a positive for the eurozone but more evidence will be needed to conclude that the recession was nearing an end. This has helped the euro to gain slightly against the pound and the dollar. Reports of Korea and China buying euros and selling the dollar this morning as EUR/USD recovers from its overnight low of 1.3792.
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
7:00 AM ET. May 22 Mortgage Applications
Market Composite Index (previous 915.9)
Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous +2.3%)
Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 254)
Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -4.4%)
Refinance Index (previous 4794.4)
Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous +4.5%)
7:45 AM ET. May 23 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous -1.2%)
Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous -0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. May 23 Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous -0.2%)
12MonChgPct (previous 0%)
52WkChgPct (previous -0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales
Total Sales (expected 4.65M; previous 4.57M)
Percent Change (expected +1.8%; previous -3%)
4:30 PM ET. May 22 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -4.47M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -5.37M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.41M)
Refinery Runs (previous 80.6%)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 1423.00 then this month's high crossing at 1437.75 are the next upside targets. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1437.75 or below the reaction low crossing at 1336.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is last week's high crossing at 1423.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1437.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1389.68. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1377.90. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.00 pts. at 1412.75 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last week's high crossing at 923.20. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 877.00. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.70 pts. at 910.40 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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May 27, 2009
The pound has hit the $1.60 level for the first time in nearly seven months, the euro is also neatly poised just below 1.40 this morning as risk appetite improves as optimism through the equity markets improves. This has increased the demand for assets denominated in sterling which started the year suppressed as a flight to safety prevailed. Currently we are seeing optimism throughout global markets- recently driven by better than expected US consumer confidence numbers.
The dollar is also not currently fulfilling its usual status as a safe haven currency- concerns expressed on its sovereign debt rating looming over the dollar. Technically the market needs to maintain a breach over 1.60 to target 1.64 as the next key level. Keep one eye on the situation in North Korea as escalation or saber rattling will undoubtedly cause a rush back into the dollar.
Not a great deal of market data of note today with US existing home sales due out this afternoon being the main focus. North Korea as mentioned earlier could be a market mover and the fate of General Motors will be closely watched- GM faced a deadline to report on their levels of debt and concerns are increasing that bankruptcy is looming.
In other news Japans export downturn eased in April- falling 39.1% compared to the same month last year- this following a 45.6% fall in March. This resulted in a surprise trade surplus and raises hopes that the economy is past the worst and is on the road to recovery. This should help the Yen remain firm against the USD.
OPEC ministers are meeting in Vienna this week and are expected to make no change to volumes of oil supply as higher prices ease their concerns about both fuel inventories and the deepest fall in demand for years. The Saudis have been on the news-wires this morning talking oil higher, stating that the global economy is ready for a $75-80 per barrel price.
Report by Phil McHugh, Corporate Foreign Exchange
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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This video is a little bit different from our previous videos in that we show you some of the new improvements we have just added to MarketClub.
I just got the word from my business partner Dave Maher, who is the technical part of the team that he had just upgraded the MarketClub charts. I was so excited at the improvements that I decided to rush over to our digital studios and create a new video. All credit goes to Dave and his team who did an outstanding job on this new MarketClub release.
One major improvement and one I believe you are going to really enjoy and profit from is a study called 'Donchian Channels'. This study is named after its inventor Richard Donchian who created this amazing technical juggernaut in the late 40s.
There are also a ton of other improvements like, cross hairs and a new 200 day moving average study which I think you will enjoy. You might be surprised at how I use the 200 day moving average.
You can view this new video with our compliments. There are no registration requirements.
You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements.
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Take a look at how MarketClub has improved the charts.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
Here is a key video to look at this week.
I was just looking at the S&P 500 and I noticed a very pronounced cycle in this market that I want to share with you.
In my new video I explain exactly what I have seen and what I expect will happen to this market if this cycle continues on track.
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The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only. .
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 22, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
8:30 AM ET. April Chicago Fed National Activity Index
National Activity Index (previous -2.96)
3 Month Moving Average (previous -3.27)
9:00 AM ET. March Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10-City Index, Yearly (previous -18.8%)
20-City Index, Yearly (previous -18.6%)
10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Survey
Manufacturing Index (previous 9)
Retail Revenues Index (previous 11)
Services Revenue Index (previous 29)
Shipments Index (previous 3)
10:00 AM ET. May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index (previous 39.2)
Expectation Index (previous 49.5)
Present Situation Index (previous 23.7)
10:30 AM ET. May Dallas Fed Mfg Outlook Survey
Business Activity Index (previous -31.6)
Manufacturing Production Index (previous -8.9)
5:00 PM ET. May 23 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous 45)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1339.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1437.75 or below the reaction low crossing at 1336.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1366.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1383.87. First support is the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1339.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1286.70. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 17.00 pts. at 1343.75 as of 5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 894.94. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at 877.00. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.60 pts. at 877.30 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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May 26, 2009
Yesterday attention turned to Asia as the UK and US markets were closed. The Yen and the Dollar appreciated after reports that North Korea carried out a missile test drawing international condemnation. The Yen and the Dollar gained as cautiousness in the currency markets increased the demand for the currencies as a refuge- this space will be watched closely amid reports of further missiles being fired.
Looking at the currency markets we have seen EUR/USD retreat from hitting the 1.40 level as demand for dollar increased and the euro weakened with a worse than expected German IFO index coming in at 84.20 compared to forecasts at 85.0. Although analysts commented that a quick recovery for Germany was unlikely the data is still an improvement from last months figure and does follow last weeks better than expected leading indicators for the Eurozone. The Euros cause was further dampened through an article in the Telegraph which cited a German bank regulator raising concerns that the debt level may increase in the nation.
German GDP data came in exactly in line with expectations and the market will now focus on unemployment for May due for release on Thursday. An important week ahead also for the US housing market with existing home sales and new home sales figures due out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Later this afternoon we have the US consumer confidence index for May. Very little of note for the UK this week with Nationwide house price data being the most prevalent ahead of next weeks rate decision by the BoE and ECB.
Report by Phil McHugh, Corporate Foreign Exchange
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currency Market Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 22, 2009
N/A No major economic indicators scheduled.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
THE STOCK INDEXES
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rebound off last week's low, this month's high crossing at 1437.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1423.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1437.75. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1352.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 1339.50. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 10.50 pts. at 1378.00 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 929.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 878.00. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 875.40. The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.00 pts. at 894.70 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Attention Traders Don't miss these new free trading videos.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir. |
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